Originally Posted by doomasiggy
Nobody is gonna type out a full on mathematical proof here mate. You win here 4/5 times you play, just accept it and move on.
I'll attempt a very simplified one though!
Its all about probability and expectation. Poker is a highly mathematical game and learning some of the more common mathematics will help your game a lot.
I'd suggest reading about probability, expected value
and pot odds
. Study study study!
You cannot predict the cards to come but you can calculate the probability
of them showing. Let's take your above example - you're ahead, your opponent needs to spike a Q to beat you. What are the chances of it happening?
There's 52 cards in the deck. You hold 2, your opponent holds 2, leaving 48 cards that we don't know the value of.
Chances of NOT hitting a Q on any of the 5 community cards after going all in preflop:
46/48 x 45/47 x 44/46 x 43/45 x 42/44 = about 80%
So in the above example, your KK will hold 80% of the time, we call this having 80% equity
in the hand. I've ignored all the random crazy stuff like straights & 4 flushes for simplicity, but there are some great programs that will do all of that stuff in a heartbeat (pokerstove is one of the better ones, and it's free!).