This is a discussion on percentages & probabilties within the online poker forums, in the General Poker section; ok i posted this hand in a couple threads and have been told many percentages of this happening and how these percentages are fact. Well 


#1




percentages & probabilties
ok i posted this hand in a couple threads and have been told many percentages of this happening and how these percentages are fact. Well i would like to know what are the percentages and where are you getting them and how does a probobilty % turn into an ultimate fact?
I am riveraise72 Hand#3220CDD349001585  $1,000 Bankroll Freeroll Satellite T13488969  FREEROLL  $0 + $0  10 Max  Table 29  60/300/600 NL Hold'em  2013/01/28  10:32:59 Dealer: Seat 7 Seat 1: Crazd1 (6,634 in chips) Seat 2: ChoMoJoe!! (5,084 in chips) Seat 3: riveraise12 (33,115 in chips) Seat 5: kgs77 (40,042 in chips) Seat 6: missimarie (4,550 in chips) Seat 7: forair (3,234 in chips) Seat 9: AcesBamBam (9,498 in chips) Seat 10: d4care (21,277 in chips) Crazd1: posts ante of 60 ChoMoJoe!!: posts ante of 60 riveraise12: posts ante of 60 kgs77: posts ante of 60 missimarie: posts ante of 60 forair: posts ante of 60 AcesBamBam: posts ante of 60 d4care: posts ante of 60 AcesBamBam: posts small blind 300 d4care: posts big blind 600 Dealt to riveraise12 [Ks,Kh] Crazd1: folds ChoMoJoe!!: raises to 1,590 riveraise12: raises to 6,150 kgs77: is all in 39,982 missimarie: folds forair: folds AcesBamBam: folds d4care: folds ChoMoJoe!!: folds riveraise12: is all in 26,905 kgs77: returns uncalled bet 6,927 riveraise12: shows [Ks Kh] kgs77: shows [Qc Qs] *** FLOP *** [4h,2c,2h] *** TURN *** Q♥ *** RIVER *** 8♥ ***SHOW DOWN*** ChoMoJoe!! chats: lmao had 1010 kgs77 wins 69,080 with Full House Queens full of deuces riveraise12 finished 34 out of 333 players. 
#4




Quote:
Its all about probability and expectation. Poker is a highly mathematical game and learning some of the more common mathematics will help your game a lot. I'd suggest reading about probability, expected value and pot odds. Study study study! You cannot predict the cards to come but you can calculate the probability of them showing. Let's take your above example  you're ahead, your opponent needs to spike a Q to beat you. What are the chances of it happening? There's 52 cards in the deck. You hold 2, your opponent holds 2, leaving 48 cards that we don't know the value of. Chances of NOT hitting a Q on any of the 5 community cards after going all in preflop: 46/48 x 45/47 x 44/46 x 43/45 x 42/44 = about 80% So in the above example, your KK will hold 80% of the time, we call this having 80% equity in the hand. I've ignored all the random crazy stuff like straights & 4 flushes for simplicity, but there are some great programs that will do all of that stuff in a heartbeat (pokerstove is one of the better ones, and it's free!). Questions? 
#5




re: Poker & percentages & probabilties
Also while we're on the subject, probability is always fact by definition; maths isn't some ethereal magic invented by Greeks with beards. We overcome variance (losing KK<QQ), by playing a larger volume so that on average our results will cleave towards perfect.

#6




Quote:
Here is a quote from the other thread..... ssbn743 Advanced Member Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: Colorado Posts: 171 Quote: Originally Posted by ibsiegel as far as the 44 hand goes the QQ shoved he didnt raise/call a shove he shoved and if you notice that isnt what i did i called the shove to my raise. I wouldnt play the hand i posted any different in either position. I wish i would have won but i didnt initiate the all in the utg did. Further more that is why i didnt just shove because this exact result happens more often then not. The exact same result happens 16% of the time – not more often than not! how can anyone say that this will happen 16% of the time. That is a definite statement. There is no way someone can say a certain result will happen X%. the Probabilty may be 16% but to say that is set in stone isnt reality... 
#7




Quote:
Nor is it a Fact that KK will beat QQ 80%. It is a probability based on mathmatical inputs and a PROBABILITY NOT A SET IN STONE OUTCOME. \ 
#8




Quote:
1) he didn't say KK would lose to 44 16% of the time, it was KK < undercards if I remember correctly. 2) fine, you win. Maths has no bearing on the game because maths has no bearing on reality. Every winning player in the world is wrong, every scientist and statistician that uses combinatronics doesn't understand that probabilities are "just a ratio", and you are just the unluckiest player in the world. Happy now? 
#14




Quote:

#15




re: Poker & percentages & probabilties
Quote:
I also play the player instead of a set strategy that is why i am asking? 
#18




Quote:
If you are interested in what mathematicians and other mortals understand by "probability", how it applies to realworld situations such as poker where at any point the number of possibilities is finite, and how Lucothefish comes to his calculation, you may find this book very inspiring. 
#19




Quote:
