Outs

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stealthy1

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I've managed to get myself a bit confused about outs and odds.

Say for example I'm holding - As 10h
The flop comes - Qd Js 4s

How many outs have I got here?

Sorry for being a bit thick!
 
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mischman

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Depends, say the guy have A5, then you only need to dodge a five. If the Guy Has KJ then you need an ace or king. It depends on what your oppenent has.

Outs- Card(s) in the deck you need to catch to win the hand

Odds- The percent that your card(s) will come
 
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stealthy1

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Ok, thanks.

So if the flop was all spades , Qs, Js, 4s and I was holding As 10h, I would have the chance of a flush, straight or straight flush. I would have 13 outs? 4 kings and 9 spades?
 
Welly

Welly

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Its difficult (answering orig question) without more info about the betting but...

Lets assume he has launched all his chips in when he sees the flop :-

In its rawest form you could say you have 4 outs (the 4 kings). Which is 16.5% chance of hitting from the flop. You should inflate that slightly for the backdoor flush, and say give it around 20%.

Lets say he is fairly tight, maybe getting a little short-stacked though....we generously give him the following hands :-

AA ..... 21.5% (KKKK)
KK ..... 24% (AAA and KK)
AQ ..... 21.5% (KKKK)
AJ ...... 21.5% (KKKK)
KQo ..... 28% (AAA and KKK)
KQ spades ..... 22% (AAA and KKK but no spade alongside)
QJ ..... 22% (KKKK)

We leave out the sets (unless he is incredibly shortstacked, and even then they would trade off against a complete bluff).

Essentially you dont really want to call more than 20% ( ie no more than a bet a third of the pot size). Not exactly that attractive.


If he isnt all-in, that is a slightly different ball game once again as we need to factor in the implied odds he will bet again (in relation to his stack left and previous play) vs the implied odds of getting the pay off if you nail the turn. If you are tight then you add more weight to the implied odds he will bet again, thus reducing the draw% from the flop accordingly.

Welly
 
Welly

Welly

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Ok, thanks.

So if the flop was all spades , Qs, Js, 4s and I was holding As 10h, I would have the chance of a flush, straight or straight flush. I would have 13 outs? 4 kings and 9 spades?

No, you have 12, as one of the kings is a spade.

And they are only outs if op doesnt have 2 spades in hole cards. (eg Kc, Kd, Kh are no good then)
 
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stealthy1

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Thanks for that, it's all becoming clearer.
 
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