S
Shylax
Rock Star
Silver Level
Online poker is NOT rigged. There are NO bad beats in MTTs. You can’t win a tourney, only survive a tourney.
I want to start with the last statement first. You can’t WIN a tourney. What I mean by that is simply, there is no hand before the final table that can win a tournament. Not one. I see all these bad beat stories here about hands in the first hour or on the bubble that if they wouldn’t have gotten sucked out on, they would have won or done better, yada, yada, yada. When it comes to tourneys, a change in mentality will go a long way.
The people who win tourneys didn’t actuality win. They SURVIVED. They were the only one who didn’t bust out. If you go into tourneys trying to win everyone’s chips, you’re going to fail. The only thing you can and are supposed to do is lose all your chips. Because that’s what’s statistically supposed to happen. Tourneys with their freezing out of rebuys and their increasing blinds structure are designed to get rid of people. It’s the nature of the beast. If you try to win people’s chips, you will lose yours faster.
Cash games are about winning. Tourneys are about SURVIVING. And the only hands that matter in a tourney are the hands where all your chips are in the middle of the pot. Those are the hands where if you lose, you’re out, you’re gone, you’re busted. And each time, you put all your chips in the middle, no matter how good you put them in, you’re tourney survival rate decreases.
Let’s say you have Aces and are up against a smaller pair for all your chips. Your about 80% to win which is awesome. But run that scenario 5 times where one loss equals you busting out and you get
80% x 80% x 80% x 80% x 80% = 32% all five Aces hold up.
So even though you are the overwhelming favorite in each individual hand, you only have a 32% chance to stay alive!
I railed a winning internet pro to watch him play. In a tourney of 1459 players, he made the final table and I wrote down the hands he had to put his whole stack on the line prior to the final table. He had ten hands whether preflop, after the flop or after the turn he put all his chips in:
100% x 91% x 81% x 41% x 71% x 65% x 81% x 53% x 81% x 64% = 3%
For him to make the final table, he had a 3% chance of SURVIVING all his all ins. He had a 97% chance to bust out of the tournament. His making the final table is equivalent to someone hitting a 1 outer. Let’s say his 10 hands were AA versus a small pair.
80% x 80% x 80% x 80% x 80% x 80% x 80% x 80% x 80% x 80% = 10%
So even if he was lucky enough to get AA versus smaller pair every showdown he’d still be only 10% surviving to the final table. As, you can see, there are NO BADBEATS in tourneys. The only bad beat is actually surviving to the final table.
The real skill in tourneys is simply to accumulate chips in order to keep up with the rising blinds and antes thus lowering your amount of allin hands which greatly improves your survival percentage. If you go looking for trouble, trouble’s going to find you. You can’t win. You have to keep surviving til you’re the last man standing. The tourney is designed to bust you. It’s a long shot. It’s a lottery. That’s why $10 gets you $10,000 if you survive or $200 gets you $200,000.
The great tourney players know how to survive tournaments. That’s what separates them from great cash players. They’re not going all in preflop in the first hour or trying to steal all the time. They’re extremely patient, very selective about the times they go allin and aggressive. That’s the key to SURVIVING tourneys.
So please, next time you bust out, don’t break nothing or come here to complain. Probability wise, you had very little chance going into the tournament. The only BAD BEAT in tournament poker is if you tell me you made the final table or won the whole thing because the odds of doing so are so small. Those are the stories I want to hear.
I want to start with the last statement first. You can’t WIN a tourney. What I mean by that is simply, there is no hand before the final table that can win a tournament. Not one. I see all these bad beat stories here about hands in the first hour or on the bubble that if they wouldn’t have gotten sucked out on, they would have won or done better, yada, yada, yada. When it comes to tourneys, a change in mentality will go a long way.
The people who win tourneys didn’t actuality win. They SURVIVED. They were the only one who didn’t bust out. If you go into tourneys trying to win everyone’s chips, you’re going to fail. The only thing you can and are supposed to do is lose all your chips. Because that’s what’s statistically supposed to happen. Tourneys with their freezing out of rebuys and their increasing blinds structure are designed to get rid of people. It’s the nature of the beast. If you try to win people’s chips, you will lose yours faster.
Cash games are about winning. Tourneys are about SURVIVING. And the only hands that matter in a tourney are the hands where all your chips are in the middle of the pot. Those are the hands where if you lose, you’re out, you’re gone, you’re busted. And each time, you put all your chips in the middle, no matter how good you put them in, you’re tourney survival rate decreases.
Let’s say you have Aces and are up against a smaller pair for all your chips. Your about 80% to win which is awesome. But run that scenario 5 times where one loss equals you busting out and you get
80% x 80% x 80% x 80% x 80% = 32% all five Aces hold up.
So even though you are the overwhelming favorite in each individual hand, you only have a 32% chance to stay alive!
I railed a winning internet pro to watch him play. In a tourney of 1459 players, he made the final table and I wrote down the hands he had to put his whole stack on the line prior to the final table. He had ten hands whether preflop, after the flop or after the turn he put all his chips in:
100% x 91% x 81% x 41% x 71% x 65% x 81% x 53% x 81% x 64% = 3%
For him to make the final table, he had a 3% chance of SURVIVING all his all ins. He had a 97% chance to bust out of the tournament. His making the final table is equivalent to someone hitting a 1 outer. Let’s say his 10 hands were AA versus a small pair.
80% x 80% x 80% x 80% x 80% x 80% x 80% x 80% x 80% x 80% = 10%
So even if he was lucky enough to get AA versus smaller pair every showdown he’d still be only 10% surviving to the final table. As, you can see, there are NO BADBEATS in tourneys. The only bad beat is actually surviving to the final table.
The real skill in tourneys is simply to accumulate chips in order to keep up with the rising blinds and antes thus lowering your amount of allin hands which greatly improves your survival percentage. If you go looking for trouble, trouble’s going to find you. You can’t win. You have to keep surviving til you’re the last man standing. The tourney is designed to bust you. It’s a long shot. It’s a lottery. That’s why $10 gets you $10,000 if you survive or $200 gets you $200,000.
The great tourney players know how to survive tournaments. That’s what separates them from great cash players. They’re not going all in preflop in the first hour or trying to steal all the time. They’re extremely patient, very selective about the times they go allin and aggressive. That’s the key to SURVIVING tourneys.
So please, next time you bust out, don’t break nothing or come here to complain. Probability wise, you had very little chance going into the tournament. The only BAD BEAT in tournament poker is if you tell me you made the final table or won the whole thing because the odds of doing so are so small. Those are the stories I want to hear.