Omaha quiz

This is based hand I played recently at a 9-seater PLO table and is going to be in 3 parts - preflop, flop, and turn.

Part 1: There's a raise and 6 hands go to the flop.

How much equity do each of these hands have, given the other hands that are out there? (No cheating...) This doesn't necessarily mean that any hand on its own is less playable, although it does give an idea of how hands might fare in such a pot.

Clue: answers are
27.3%
23.6%
20.7%
13.8%
11.9%
02.8%
but not in this order.

#5 27.3
#3 23.6
#1 20.7
#4 13.8
#2 11.9
#6 2.8

OK... so this is my gut hunch based on how I would feel about playing each pre flop without knowing what each of the others had.

Probably way wrong, but, oh well! You did say no cheating.

My guess here is;
1 : 27.3 % 2 suited with a high pair, several str8 posibilities
2 :13.8% As it works out this hand has the most live cards to come.
3 :23.6% K's, suit, and st8's
4 :11.9% fair pair, but the 34 even suited are danger cards.
5 :20.7% Very good for a hi str8, or hi pairs, but requires such a specific flop that equity really might not apply till post flop
6 :2.8% Gonna require runner runner runner runner runner.

I have not read anything about the notion of equity in Omaha, so this is my interpretation of things. If I was clairvoiant I think I would prefer going into the flop with hand 2. Else hand 1, then 3, ten 5, then 4 and hand 6 still ends up last.

P.S. this 'test' may take a while because Omaha is not a favorite of many.

I'll post the answer and second part later this evening....

After that resounding response, here's the answer:
27.3% - 2 (8775 ss)
23.6% - 4 (TT43 ss)
20.7% - 6 (AJ96 ds)
13.8% - 3 (KKTJ ss)
11.9% - 1 (KQQ8 ds)
02.8% - 5 (AKQJ r)

Interesting how the middle suited connectors are a big favourite over the high cards, even the Kings, in this pot.

Scores (root mean square of difference between true and guessed ranks), lower = better:
thwizz: 7.87
dj: 6.86

Part 2: on the flop.

Flop is [ah][10d][7d]. Pot-sized bet, 5 callers.

Equities are:
43.5%
35.7%
10.3%
5.9%
2.6%
1.9%

but which hand do they match to?

#6 - 43.5%
#1 - 35.7%
#4 - 10.3%
#2 - 5.9%
#5 - 2.6%
#3 - 1.9%

Since I did so well the first time. LOL

oops too late for preflop... I knew the hand that had the worst equity. Pretty obvious when you look at the other hands. Didn't look at the rest carefully since you had the answer posted.

Ok for part 2:
Best --> worst
6 (top flush draw, str draws, back door nut house) 4 (top set)
5 2 1
3 is worst

6 has so much draw potential --- best flop for this hand. 4 is best made hand but can easily be outdrawn.

Clearly, my understanding of equity in Omaha is near nil. It isn't much better for holdem. But no harm in guessing. Caveat here for knowing what cards are live or not. Players would not know this.
1-1.9%
2-35.7%
3-2.6%
4-43.5%
5-5.9%
6-10.3%

Answer to part 2 - equities on A♥10♦7♦ flop:
43.5% - 6 (AJ96 ds) - Nut flush + gutshot, lucky there aren't too many diamonds out
35.7% - 4 (TT34 ss) - Currently the best hand with middle set
10.3% - 2 (7758 ss) - 1 out for quads + 2 backdoor straights
5.9% - 5 (AKQJ r) - 2 outs to tie for top straight, would be more but there are so many blockers in other hands
2.6% - 1 (KQQ8 ds) - Q-high flush draw is no good, 1 out to split with top straight
1.9% - 3 (KKTJ ss) - Just a gutshot, 1 out to split

Scores (lower = better)
Thwiz: 1.41
dj: 1.15
skold: 0.58

Part 3: on the turn.

The turn card is J♣.

Equities are now:
34.7%
32.6%
27.1%
4.2%
1.4%
0%
Which is which hand? (Should be an easy one...)

#5-34.7%
#1-32.6%
#6-27.1%
#2-4.2%
#3-1.4%
#4-0%

Man!, What pervert came up with this. LOL. They are using a pinochle deck!

Hand 1 has the made nut straight with no chance at improvemnet cept a diamond but that makes 2nd nut flush
Hand 2 with 2nd trips is toast except for a miracle draw
Hand 3 has 1 out, the Q and that only splits the pot, 3 ways!
Hand 4 with top trips, has the whole unexplored bottom half of the deck to pair for a boat 6 outs via 3's or 4's
Hand 5 has the nut str8, and 2 outs for the boat
Hand 6 has ? outs one available A for the boat, and any diamond for the nut flush.

Decisions decisions , Whats an inquiring mind supposed to do......?

5- 34.7%
1- 32.6%
6- 27.1%
4- 4.2%
2- 1.4%
3- 0%


???

Most --> Least

5 1 (both 5 and 1 have the nuts, but only 5 can improve to a full house) 6 (nut flush draw) 2 (the case 7 is 1/24 (= 4.2%) cards left) 3 (if the case Q comes he will chop 3 ways so his equity is 1/24 * 1/3) so that leaves 4 as having no possible win

(5 1 6 2 3 4)

Hand 4 wins with any 3 or 4, 6 outs.
As there are fewer outs with every other hand, only made hands at this point should be considered to have more equity.

There are only 4 diamonds left.
1 Q left
3 8's

Where is Bombjack with his answer???????

Answer to part 3 - equities on [ah][10d][7d][jc] board:
34.7% - 5 (AKQJ r) - Nut straight with redraw to nut full house
32.6% - 1 (KQQ8 ds) - Nut straight, no redraws
27.1% - 6 (AJ96 ds) - Nut flush draw, nut full house draw
4.2% - 2 (8775 ss) - One out to quads
1.4% - 3 (KKJT ss) - One out for a 3-way top straight tie
0% - 4 (TT43 ss) - Drawing dead, since the T is in someone's hand and pairing the board will make someone else a better full house or quads

Scores (lower = better):
joeeagles: 0
dj: 1 (#4 has no outs so comes bottom)
skold: 0

Thanks to those who took part and I hope this has helped you think about how much equity you have at any point in an Omaha hand, and how your opponents' likely holdings can influence that equity.

My hand was #5 (AKQJ r), and I was surprised to see I had only 2.8% equity preflop, given all the other players who were already in the pot, and the fact I need high cards to make my hand. If it were suited, that would have added a lot of equity because I can make the unique nuts even if the board is low.

It also shows that in a multiway pot, middle connectors can be very powerful - in fact they were the best hand preflop.

In the actual hand, the river was [6d], so #6 took the main pot. However the fact that hand #6 had a smaller stack than me meant I got most of my money back in a side-pot.

I had a brain fart and forgot this was Omaha.
Caused me to think hand 4 had outs.