Odds Question

SAME HAND 2-3 TIMES IN A ROW

Whats up everyone. I am a tourny player, mostly freerolls; and I have an odds question that could use some clarification.

As a tourny player you see many hands... some weak, some good, and some monsters and I think everyone here is sure on the odds or close enough on any given hand to make good decisions and sometimes even gamble a little. I have room for improvement in my game and probably will
forever but something has confounded me for years while playing and I would like some (Facts, Lies, Oppinions) on the following question/scenario.

In a poker tournament at some point you will be dealt two like hands in a row or rarely 3 in a row. (Example: Hand 1: 78os, Hand 2:78os, *Hand 3: 78suited) I am curious about how the odds are affected when this happens and if those odds can be quantified.

Let me give a full example so that I am completely clear.

*Hand 1: hc(7d,8d) flop(Ad,Kc,2c) t(10d) r(10s)
Ok this hand was probably folded but it doesnt matter. I had 78d and the board missed my hand completely.

*Next Hand: hc(7d,8d)
Action is to me with a 150 raise in front and I have 1500 chips. We are 10-15 hands into the tournament and my chip stack was equal to the raiser before he raised. I have every reason to believe the raiser has a nice hand if not a high pp he is trying to get paid off for.
(In this situation... considering I have the same hand as my previous hand that missed the board. Is it safe to assume that the odds of my (7d8d) hitting have increased?)

(***Hypothetical Hand 3: hc(7x,8x)
Do the odds variate up or down now in the 3rd same hand after missing the 1st hand and then (a. I hit a winning hand in the 2nd?) (b. I miss the board again in the 2nd hand?)


???My Opinion???
In my opinion and in my play when this happens I will try to look at hand number 2, short of going allin. I think when this happens your odds to win hand 2 are increased but I'm not sure by how much and I'm not sure if I am over looking something that would cancel my theory out. Probability says if you miss hitting 4-5 cards on the board in hand 1 and then pick up the same cards for hand 2 that your chances of hitting are better because the 4-5 card miss board event has already occured and is less likely to happen again.
I have also considered that this scenario is maybe a pure probability race between the odds of catching 2cards (hole cards) consecutively vs. the odds of 2 consecutive boards (10 cards) producing the same 15-50% of cards that wont improve your hand (7x,8x).

I'm not good with numbers at all but this is what I have come up with in trying to figure this out. I think in Hand 2 that I have a 17% chance to win in a 9-handed tourny table if I were to go allin and get called preflop. According to my long painstaking math I have calculated that after the board miss in hand 1 it allows for around 4%+ to the 17% that the board in hand2 will produce a winning hand. Please help me solidify the numbers on this problem and let me know how you play this scenario.

Ty in advance to everyone who reads and participates in this post. I spent several hours trying to calculate these numbers and I am not all that good at being a mathmatician anyways, so if you disagree or your numbers come back different pls post and tell me what you got and how so I can apply it in the future...

OnyxPanther

I thought the chance would be the same. Random ! I will be watching this post.

They are independent events. What u got last hand and how it played has no bearing on how the next hand will play out no matter what cards u got.

Probability though right? If the board comes AAJ K 9 then it is less likely that the next hand will be the same or close to the same because that probability chance just hit. Don't get me wrong it does happen!

This is where I am getting confused. In probabilities every possible outcome is a 'chance'. Take a dice cube for example: 6 sides, 6 possible outcomes/chances. PlayerA rolls and the cube lands on 6, odds are that the cube will not land on 6 the next roll. Possible, but not probable. Now lets say PlayerA's 2nd roll DOES land on a 6. (Does this raise the probability that the 3rd roll will be a lower number?) The odds are still the same, as the cube still has 6 sides but because PlayerA landed on 6 twice shouldn't it raise the likelyhood that the 3rd roll will have a different result?

This may be a never ending debate and lost cause for the simple fact that; while highly immprobable, PlayerA could in fact land the cube on 6 20 times in a row. It just seems like each roll he lands the improbable, the more probable it should be that he misses the next roll....

SHHEEESSSHHH!!!!! I'm having a flashback from high school when I went through this same problem and I think now that I'm remembering back that I had to call it a draw because for every chance of probability there is also a chance of improbability in a balanced game of chance.

I would like some knowledgable poker players to examine my first post and give me feedback on that scenario because poker has enough variance and range to where I think the equilibrium often shifts in terms of what is probable vs. improbable. Thats why in poker you have lots of wins coming from face cards and aces, but the improbable 75 offsuit wins on a percentage as well.

Done thinking in depth on this until i can get some input from people who really know how to calculate odds and factor in variance for probability

Simple explanation:

A glitch in the Matrix ...........


Poker is what poker is and live as well as online there is no difference.
When it happens live you would say, hey the dealer didn't shuffle the cards.
In online many start to question the random card generator or the poker site.
Glitch .....

OnyxPanther said:

This is where I am getting confused. In probabilities every possible outcome is a 'chance'. Take a dice cube for example: 6 sides, 6 possible outcomes/chances. PlayerA rolls and the cube lands on 6, odds are that the cube will not land on 6 the next roll. Possible, but not probable.

Click to expand...

The 6 has just the same odds as any other number hitting the second time-period. This is a FACT. Your thinking process is all wrong. This is why gamblers go broke. Any good poker player knows this and will tell you the same thing. Here's somthing for u to think about. 6 6 6 6 6 6 has the same chance/odds as 1 2 3 4 5 6 comming up if u roll the dice 6 times.

Each hand dealt to you (1st,2nd,3rd) are INDEPENDENT EVENTS ; since the deck is shuffled and new cards are dealt there is 0 relation between 1 and 2nd hand(event); what DOES matter is the psychological part of getting the same hand in a row, since ur opponents will not put u on the same hand twice, 3 times (this one is sick.. ), etc but that has nothing to do wit math.. generally speaking

i think the way ur thinkin bout it , is like, if u shot a 3 pointer... the % to hit next one is greater ? maybe so.. but thats not poker

tpb221 ty. It feels like my thinking is wrong! hahahah but miraclechipmunk's post helped me think of a better way to explain why I am thinking like this.

To me hand1 is a fold hand for obvious dead flop reasons.

When it comes to hand2 in my mind it registers as 'same cards and now I have a chance to see 10 board cards instead of the 1st 5 with the same cards'. I think now that it could be over analytical exaggerated thinking like this (maybe caused from long periods of playing) that causes average to good tourny players to lose positions and momentum while playing. I say this because the numbers and correlations between 2 hands like this is not included in my strategy when I sit to play a tournament. I try to play T.A.G. until I have a comfortable lead at the table, and then I will open up occasionally to explore marginal connectors table odds opportunities.

I just need to face the facts.
1. The odds in the 1st hand 2nd hand or 3rd hand are going to be based on my opponent/s play and the board! lol
2. I should be focusing on cost vs. odds of the hand I AM IN! 'not dazed in an obsolete hand that is over'.
3. I WOULD NEED A MATH WIZARD TO CALCULATE THE ODDS OF 1 HAND LET ALONE 2 HANDS AND THE VARIANCE ODDS OF THOSE 2 HANDS AND HOW THEY CORRESPOND WITH EACH OTHER.

We need 'The Professor', Mr. Lederer for the math involved in my post here. He could solve this complexity in seconds, I bet, in terms of the mathematical values. Perhaps I will try to pass this on to the pros and get an elite view on whether or not inter-hand odd dynamics have a role in solid play. I think my resolution to the problem is most likely the correct and accurate approach to a situation like this.

I would like to know if I calculated my odds of winning the 2nd hand correctly at 17%. Allin preflop, early position with 78os at a full 9-man table if someone here reading this actually knows how to calculate the odds and percentages of poker hands. I would appreciate it very much if you could tell me if I am correct and if not please tell me the correct chance I have of winning this hand regardless of how many at the table call.

TY and I appologize if i jarred anyone else brain besides mine with this odds calculating fiasco

If u don't know about pokerstove already download and use this. This gives u the odds of winning a hand.

http://www.pokerstove.com/

OnyxPanther said:

3. I WOULD NEED A MATH WIZARD TO CALCULATE THE ODDS OF 1 HAND LET ALONE 2 HANDS AND THE VARIANCE ODDS OF THOSE 2 HANDS AND HOW THEY CORRESPOND WITH EACH OTHER.

We need 'The Professor', Mr. Lederer for the math involved in my post here. He could solve this complexity in seconds, I bet, in terms of the mathematical values. Perhaps I will try to pass this on to the pros and get an elite view on whether or not inter-hand odd dynamics have a role in solid play. I think my resolution to the problem is most likely the correct and accurate approach to a situation like this.

Click to expand...

Do you think you'd get a reasonable response?
None of the stuff you've CAPITALIZED is relevant.

They are independent events. What u got last hand and how it played has no bearing on how the next hand will play out no matter what cards u got.

Read this ^ I believe your head is going in circles.

OnyxPanther said:

Probability though right? If the board comes AAJ K 9 then it is less likely that the next hand will be the same or close to the same because that probability chance just hit. Don't get me wrong it does happen!

This is where I am getting confused. In probabilities every possible outcome is a 'chance'. Take a dice cube for example: 6 sides, 6 possible outcomes/chances. PlayerA rolls and the cube lands on 6, odds are that the cube will not land on 6 the next roll. Possible, but not probable. Now lets say PlayerA's 2nd roll DOES land on a 6. (Does this raise the probability that the 3rd roll will be a lower number?) The odds are still the same, as the cube still has 6 sides but because PlayerA landed on 6 twice shouldn't it raise the likelyhood that the 3rd roll will have a different result?

This may be a never ending debate and lost cause for the simple fact that; while highly immprobable, PlayerA could in fact land the cube on 6 20 times in a row. It just seems like each roll he lands the improbable, the more probable it should be that he misses the next roll....

SHHEEESSSHHH!!!!! I'm having a flashback from high school when I went through this same problem and I think now that I'm remembering back that I had to call it a draw because for every chance of probability there is also a chance of improbability in a balanced game of chance.

I would like some knowledgable poker players to examine my first post and give me feedback on that scenario because poker has enough variance and range to where I think the equilibrium often shifts in terms of what is probable vs. improbable. Thats why in poker you have lots of wins coming from face cards and aces, but the improbable 75 offsuit wins on a percentage as well.

Done thinking in depth on this until i can get some input from people who really know how to calculate odds and factor in variance for probability

Click to expand...

dude the odds of a 6 falling are the same, you can take a coin, flip, and you flip a tails 19 times in a row, the odds of a tails to fall in 20th try are 50%

Well

Bad news Onyx. I tested your theory out at work the other day. Around noon I asked this gorgeous red head out and I got rejected. An hour later a blond walked in and I was feeling more confident than last time, but she shot me down mid-sentence. Then this foreign girl walked in when I was due for a yes and I got rejected in two different languages. I knew It would be a yes from the next girl because the last three said no, and if she rejected me as well, your theory must be bogus. So this beautiful girl walked in, and I didn't even let her respond before I planted a kiss on her. I would have told you the other day but they didn't have internet access in jail. The theory didn't hold up my friend, and my confidence and cheek bone are shattered.

Roller said:

Simple explanation:

A glitch in the Matrix ...........


Poker is what poker is and live as well as online there is no difference.
When it happens live you would say, hey the dealer didn't shuffle the cards.
In online many start to question the random card generator or the poker site.
Glitch .....

Click to expand...

This is so true! Everyone out there questions it sometime or another.

it doesnt matter, unless you see a showdown. then it will effect perceptions of you. otherwise play it the same.