SAME HAND 2-3 TIMES IN A ROW
Whats up everyone. I am a tourny player, mostly freerolls
; and I have an odds
question that could use some clarification.
As a tourny player you see many hands... some weak, some good, and some monsters and I think everyone here is sure on the odds or close enough on any given hand to make good decisions and sometimes even gamble a little. I have room for improvement in my game and probably will
forever but something has confounded me for years while playing and I would like some (Facts, Lies, Oppinions) on the following question/scenario.
In a poker tournament at some point you will be dealt two like hands in a row or rarely 3 in a row. (Example: Hand 1: 78os, Hand 2:78os, *Hand 3: 78suited) I am curious about how the odds are affected when this happens and if those odds can be quantified.
Let me give a full example so that I am completely clear.
*Hand 1: hc(7d,8d) flop(Ad,Kc,2c) t(10d) r(10s)
Ok this hand was probably folded but it doesnt matter. I had 78d and the board missed my hand completely.
*Next Hand: hc(7d,8d)
Action is to me with a 150 raise in front and I have 1500 chips. We are 10-15 hands into the tournament and my chip stack was equal to the raiser before he raised. I have every reason to believe the raiser has a nice hand if not a high pp he is trying to get paid off for.
(In this situation... considering I have the same hand as my previous hand that missed the board. Is it safe to assume that the odds of my (7d8d) hitting have increased?)
(***Hypothetical Hand 3: hc(7x,8x)
Do the odds variate up or down now in the 3rd same hand after missing the 1st hand and then (a. I hit a winning hand in the 2nd?) (b. I miss the board again in the 2nd hand?)
In my opinion and in my play when this happens I will try to look at hand number 2, short of going allin. I think when this happens your odds to win hand 2 are increased but I'm not sure by how much and I'm not sure if I am over looking something that would cancel my theory out. Probability says if you miss hitting 4-5 cards on the board in hand 1 and then pick up the same cards for hand 2 that your chances of hitting are better because the 4-5 card miss board event has already occured and is less likely to happen again.
I have also considered that this scenario is maybe a pure probability race between the odds of catching 2cards (hole cards) consecutively vs. the odds of 2 consecutive boards (10 cards) producing the same 15-50% of cards that wont improve your hand (7x,8x).
I'm not good with numbers at all but this is what I have come up with in trying to figure this out. I think in Hand 2 that I have a 17% chance to win in a 9-handed tourny table if I were to go allin and get called preflop. According to my long painstaking math I have calculated that after the board miss in hand 1 it allows for around 4%+ to the 17% that the board in hand2 will produce a winning hand. Please help me solidify the numbers on this problem and let me know how you play this scenario.
Ty in advance to everyone who reads and participates in this post. I spent several hours trying to calculate these numbers and I am not all that good at being a mathmatician anyways, so if you disagree or your numbers come back different pls post and tell me what you got and how so I can apply it in the future...