ChuckTs
Legend
Silver Level
Consecutive hands do have different odds.
ie Probability of getting aces twice in a row =/= probability of getting aces
getting aces twice in a row = 1/220*1/220 = 1/48400
I can't remember how to do it for weird combos like 4/7 hands, but let's just say it's pretty improbable
ie Probability of getting aces twice in a row =/= probability of getting aces
getting aces twice in a row = 1/220*1/220 = 1/48400
I can't remember how to do it for weird combos like 4/7 hands, but let's just say it's pretty improbable
4Aces
is watching you
Silver Level
I said what are the odds of getting AA 4 out of 7 hands. Not the odds of actually getting AA after Ive just had it. Understand?
So basically imagine getting 7 decks, shuffling them all and dealing a hand out of each deck.
What are the odds that 4 of those hands would be AA?
smells_flushy
Rock Star
Silver Level
Nope, there is conditional probability involved now
One time, in a SNG, I got AA five times - three of which were consecutive.
J
jeffred1111
Visionary
Silver Level
Yeah, I know it's improbable, but the odds of a single event happening at a single point in time never changes. It's very improbably for a coin to flip heads 30 times in a row (because in the long run = infinity, it will even out) but this doesn't mean that on the 29 flip, the odds of landing it heads were any worse than on the first try.
When you start to think in terms of I got AA 4 times in a row, you also start to think in terms of I never got AA in 2k hands, wich leads to Gambler Fallacy wich leads to believing running hot means an impending downswing, etc.
I prefer not to think of "wow I had AA four times in a row" and more in terms of "I have AA now".
When you start to think in terms of I got AA 4 times in a row, you also start to think in terms of I never got AA in 2k hands, wich leads to Gambler Fallacy wich leads to believing running hot means an impending downswing, etc.
I prefer not to think of "wow I had AA four times in a row" and more in terms of "I have AA now".
S
switch0723
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Although what you are saying is correct, it isnt what the OP is asking. You are saying that say you flip a heads 3 times in a row. The next time you flip it your are getting 50/50 to hit another head which is correct. But hte OP is asking what are the odds in hitting Xout of X attempts.
Example is what are the odds of flipping 2 heads in a row?
Well hte options are: H H, T T, H,T or T,H
Therfore it is a 25% chance of hitting 2 consecutive heads although using your method jeff there is a 50% of hitting a head after flipping the first.
Do you understand now jeffred?
I
iamthepush
Enthusiast
Silver Level
the one that squeeks, the 2nd beer. (oh no, does that mean i'm a two beer queer?) :icon_sant
DetroitJimmy
Legend
Silver Level
Tobmeister
Rock Star
Silver Level
I think basically what switch said above, the chance of getting aces at an any given time is what ever that is (chance of the first one =4/52 * chance of second one 3/52)
But the confusion lies when you step back and take a sample of hands and ask what the odds are of getting Aces X out of Y samples.
In this case then its the chance of getting aces the first time * itself * itself *itself
the above is going on a shady knowledge of odds from a post on cc
if i'm wrong plz tell me
But the confusion lies when you step back and take a sample of hands and ask what the odds are of getting Aces X out of Y samples.
In this case then its the chance of getting aces the first time * itself * itself *itself
the above is going on a shady knowledge of odds from a post on cc
if i'm wrong plz tell me
ChuckTs
Legend
Silver Level
In this case then its the chance of getting aces the first time * itself * itself *itself
the above is going on a shady knowledge of odds from a post on cc
if i'm wrong plz tell me
Well it's a little more complicated than that. You explained how to get the probability of getting aces 4 times in a row, ie 1/220*1/220*1/220*1/220, but getting them 4 times out of 7 requires slightly more complicated stuff that I can't remember how to do unfortunately :/
