Originally Posted by jeffred1111
Yeah, I know it's improbable, but the odds of a single event happening at a single point in time never changes. It's very improbably for a coin to flip heads 30 times in a row (because in the long run = infinity, it will even out) but this doesn't mean that on the 29 flip, the odds of landing it heads were any worse than on the first try.
When you start to think in terms of I got AA 4 times in a row, you also start to think in terms of I never got AA in 2k hands, wich leads to Gambler Fallacy wich leads to believing running hot means an impending downswing, etc.
I prefer not to think of "wow I had AA four times in a row" and more in terms of "I have AA now".
Although what you are saying is correct, it isnt what the OP is asking. You are saying that say you flip a heads 3 times in a row. The next time you flip it your are getting 50/50 to hit another head which is correct. But hte OP is asking what are the odds in hitting Xout of X attempts.
Example is what are the odds of flipping 2 heads in a row?
Well hte options are: H H, T T, H,T or T,H
Therfore it is a 25% chance of hitting 2 consecutive heads although using your method jeff there is a 50% of hitting a head after flipping the first.
Do you understand now jeffred?