Originally Posted by acky100
Think you're thinking about it wrong ram, variance will be much lower if people are stacking more frequently as you will be calling when ahead more.
Yeah..maybe I am..
Sure you will be ahead more. A winning player will more times than not in most cases get their chips in ahead, so say we take that to a micro level and a higher level game.
If you have more people playing pots, stacking of lighter and more often the variance is going to be higher surely because of probabilities of favourite hands not holding because of that random factor and other random cards being involved in hands reduces the percentages of the better hands holding. Less percentages = more varience.
I'd say it's quite realistic to have 3, maybe 4 way pots quite regularly at micros, so more hands involved in a pot means more variance because the percentages of the favourite hand holding lessens. People limp more, make bad calls with no odds
, then hit their flush for example.
Maybe I'm thinking WAY off but here is another example of what I mean,
People make bad calls, don't take odds into the equation of a range of hands one player maybe be playing and not even know anything about odds but call anyway, your top pair good kicker is going to lose more often at a micro level than say at a higher level because in most cases people won't make that "unprofitable" call of putting in 3/4 of their stack in on the turn in the "hope" of hitting that flush card.
This can happen with a random A,3 hand vs an A,K.
If one raises PF with A,K and gets flat called in a micro game and then the same in a higher buy in game.
If an Ace flops and A,K leads out, get's check raised by the weak Ace man but then A,K man shoves, then micros are highly more likely to call here than say a higher buy-in, thus meaning variance is higher because A,x hand is going to hit their rag card more times purely because Ace rag get's it in more in a micro.
Sure you WIN more at micros because of these mistakes, but you will also be riding through variance more?
Does any of that make any sense? haha...it does in my head but hfmm anyway I'm open to hear others opinions.