The Long Run

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Kamboa

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People that say you will win with that hand in the long run i dont understand them ...


Because when you get a bad beat the pot is a monster pot so there is no long run because its a short run and you will be broke...

I know you will say bankroll management but i dont like to play for 10 cent's

Respond please.
 
Stu_Ungar

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You need to start reading up on probability.

If a hand is a 60% favourite at a given point then it wins 60% of the time and looses 40%

So if you play the situation 1000 times, you win 600 times and loose 400 times thus your profit is the difference between the times you win and the times you loose so you your profit is the average pot you take 200 times.

BRM is all about giving yourself the opertunity to play sufficient hands to actually reach the long run. So if you dont like playing for 10c then deposit more cash.

If you are not BR'd to be able to absorb losses, then you cannot play for long enough for luck and varience to even out.
 
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Kamboa

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Stu_Ungar said:
You need to start reading up on probability.

If a hand is a 60% favourite at a given point then it wins 60% of the time and looses 40%

So if you play the situation 1000 times, you win 600 times and loose 400 times thus your profit is the difference between the times you win and the times you loose so you your profit is the average pot you take 200 times.

BRM is all about giving yourself the opertunity to play sufficient hands to actually reach the long run. So if you dont like playing for 10c then deposit more cash.

If you are not BR'd to be able to absorb losses, then you cannot play for long enough for luck and varience to even out.
Click to expand...


i dont think you understand haha
 
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Kamboa

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Stu_Ungar said:
Enlighten me.
Click to expand...

ok i will try haha what i am trying to say is lets say you have a 100 euro bankroll and you sit down at the 0.12 - 0.25 blinds ...

and you get AK and the flop comes AA4 oke you probbaly have the nuts.. then the turn comes 10 blank your apponent go's all in he shows AQ

then the river brings Q

then you lost 25 euro


but this is just an example you want your money in to create a big pot and then you lose so ...

there is no long run because you lose quik
 
Stu_Ungar

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Kamboa said:
ok i will try haha what i am trying to say is lets say you have a 100 euro bankroll and you sit down at the 0.12 - 0.25 blinds ...

and you get AK and the flop comes AA4 oke you probbaly have the nuts.. then the turn comes 10 blank your apponent go's all in he shows AQ

then the river brings Q

then you lost 25 euro


but this is just an example you want your money in to create a big pot and then you lose so ...

there is no long run because you lose quik
Click to expand...

I have already explained this, because you are not BR'd for the game, you are not able to absorb losses for long enough to reach the LR.
Stu_Ungar said:
You need to start reading up on probability.

If a hand is a 60% favourite at a given point then it wins 60% of the time and looses 40%

So if you play the situation 1000 times, you win 600 times and loose 400 times thus your profit is the difference between the times you win and the times you loose so you your profit is the average pot you take 200 times.

BRM is all about giving yourself the opportunity to play sufficient hands to actually reach the long run. So if you dont like playing for 10c then deposit more cash.

If you are not BR'd to be able to absorb losses, then you cannot play for long enough for luck and varience to even out.
Click to expand...
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Just keep redepositing and donating until you're ready to play within your BR.

Problem solved.
 
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paumarhas

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i think stu explained it wonderfully, it made complete sense to me.
thanks stu. :)
 
Worak

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Kamboa said:
i dont like to play for 10 cent's
Click to expand...

No ? Do you really think 10$ is easier to beat than 0.10$ ? Please visit my tables/tourneys :deal:.

Stu_Ungar said:
You need to start reading up on probability.


BRM is all about giving yourself the opertunity to play sufficient hands to actually reach the long run.

[snip]

If you are not BR'd to be able to absorb losses, then you cannot play for long enough for luck and varience to even out.
Click to expand...

BRM will limit your losses giving you more time - but if you aren't good you'll go broke eventually anyway, only later.

Kamboa said:
i dont think you understand haha
Click to expand...

First time I lol'd in this thread . :D

Stu_Ungar said:
Enlighten me.
Click to expand...

Loling hard here :D:D

WVHillbilly said:
Just keep redepositing and donating until you're ready to play within your BR.

Problem solved.
Click to expand...

Oh WV I just love the way you solve problems (...and lol once again)
 
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