its war here we go

So for a long time I have thought about going pro but obvious limitations have held me back.
now more then ever I am thinking of making a major push. we Have a deadly virus pandemic and working from home protects me and my girlfriend more from the virus then if i went to work. However I have the following threats to me.

1. bots there is always the potential of bots killing the games. a well made bot could beat any human player in the world however to the best of my knowledge so far bots have not killed the income potential yet and I have been saying this will happen for years. I still think it will but when 2 months from now 5 months 2 years 5 years 10 years? might as well take money whilst I can.

2. government legislation ruining the game this is a threat but isnt looking likely in the uk as things currently stand.

3. game standard gets tougher. again a threat but how much of one I think if you want to make £100,000+ a pretty major one a massive one, however at low stakes I just do not believe the standard increases that much I fail to believe the low stakes players of today would beat the high stakes players of 10 years ago. let alone a few years ago.

4. players adapt to me and out play me, yes but why can't i readapt to them this has actually happened before and i made adjustments and brought the pain back plus not a lot of players adapt fast at low stakes and even if one or two do they are not online 24/7

5. my results multi tabling may not be that great, my results playing a few tables do show strong statically significant wins but numbers should fall when I multi table properly.

one issue relates both to points four and five there are holes in my game that I am plugging with training videos and further study this should improve my ROI for a few tables which means when my ROI goes to more tables it drops a bit but maybe to the level of where it already is at because these changes will improve my game. I will be less exploitable and if people do get an edge on me it will be spread across a lower proportion of my tables because now I am playing more and if they keep up with my numbers can they focus better then me across multiple tables and adapt specifically to me and the changes i make in response to that?

6. my handling of tilt stress anxiety and mental game is probably without a doubt my biggest drawback plus This makes me struggle for motivation as stressful things can be desirable to avoid. in response to that I am purchasing the mental game of poker by Jared Tendler.

if I go to work and continue my day job and my girlfriend gets the virus and dies I will struggle to forgive myself, however if I quit outright and find that success does not come here then I am screwed. right now the virus numbers are on the retreat. I have my open university course starts again in October this will give me three lots of work my day job my poker and my academic studies. Realistically I can manage two of these three fine but I simply cannot manage all three I do not think that realistic.

I think with the situation at the moment and the virus on the retreat for now it makes sense to keep my day job and play poker in the evenings I have not proven I can actually make an income yet making a good ROI across a few tables playing casually each day is not the same as playing lots of tables for 7 to 8 hours a day 5-6 days a week. Whilst the former may imply i might be capable of the latter until i actually try the latter i cannot be sure of this, and losing my job in an uncertain economy in a time like this for something not proven yet seems reckless and irresponsible.

So my plan is this I do not play poker seriously until I have completed the video training series to improve holes in my game. I have set a deadline of the first of july to complete this, there is no real reason why the first of july except i need a deadline otherwise i never get stuff done. in the mean time I will play some micro stakes where you make f all and mass multi table to get more experience juggling more tables and restrict loses if the table amount becomes an issue.

from the first of July through to the end of October I plan to go full out war in the evenings and weekends whilst working four days a week in my day job.

my thought process is this
if my income from online poker fails to show an income potential better than or equal to what I earn from my day job right now I stick with the job.

If my income from poker proves to be around the same or slightly better then my day job and the virus is spreading at a significantly increasing rate again I quit my day job and go for the poker. If the income is the same or slightly more then my current job but the virus is/has receeded significantly i stay in my current job and dont take the risk.

If my income from poker proves to be significantly more than my day job defined as 1.8*current job or more then I quit job and go poker regardless of what is happening with the virus as this just brings me more money.

This will give me a good four months to really test and find out what I can do and what the results will likely be.

this is the start of my poker blog I fear failure and losing money but this seems unlikely because I have a statistically significant winning history.

I will not be mentioning the site or the games I am playing sorry but I dont want to identify my poker screen name for multiple reasons and doing either of these things could do that.

I plan to update this thread as an ongoing thing throughout this period almost like a blog this is the start of that.

Do people think I am making the right decision and my thought process is sound or not?

I will comment only on the first point. Don't be afraid of bots. They so far managed to resolve only limit holdem played heads up. In all other forms bots lose to human players.

First of all, poker should bring you pleasure and not a headache. Professionals became professionals because they knew how to enjoy the game.

Playing for fun causes you stress, seems like turning it into a full time job is only going to magnify the stress. How is that a good plan?

Four months you must be joking think you need to think in terms of decades or earning potential time left until your retirement at age 65.
I will need around 2 million dollars at current age 40 first to cover the cost of living and possible downswings due to silly spending for the next 25+ years for me and my children to even consider quitting my $60k+ a year jobs anything less than that would be foolish in my opinion.
My family and I all had Covid-19 in April and recovered after 2 weeks.
Even with more than 100k saved in cash and investments would not dream of risking it playing poker leaving work and stop earning if physically able to be honest.
Good luck in the challenge though looks fun hope you profit subscribed but keep a job unless state welfare pays more until you reach that retirement age total goal £ sum then go pro but seriously though,
Most of the best pros have sponsorship book deals,coaching, Twitch channels and many different revenue streams for example not just the games they play it is too risky leaving all your eggs in one basket the more revenue streams the better.

My opinion...
Take it while it's there! I have regrets from 2008-2010, wishing I'd played much more.

I think with online poker, if you are thinking about going for it... JUST DO IT! Tables will not be as soft as they are RIGHT NOW for too much longer (no idea for how much longer... but RIGHT NOW is the time to play... actually 2mos. ago was the time to play).

Why not try to lessen your hours at your job (maybe decrease to part-time if possible) while increasing your hours playing poker?

so hit the negative side of variance in the last session not much lost as at the moment trying to practice multi tabling on the micros.

one thing that pops up though is that I am just not getting enough games in per hour this means I either need to start spreading across sites, or trying different times and making a note of how much action i get at different times.

I think if you play just for fun and without leaving the house you can achieve greater success than exhausting yourself with work during the day and night games. Everything should be in moderation.. Luck can come to everyone, but persistent necessarily.Not everyone can be a professional. But Amateurs also win big money.Good luck to you.

hugh blair said:

Four months you must be joking think you need to think in terms of decades or earning potential time left until your retirement at age 65.
I will need around 2 million dollars at current age 40 first to cover the cost of living and possible downswings due to silly spending for the next 25+ years for me and my children to even consider quitting my $60k+ a year jobs anything less than that would be foolish in my opinion.
My family and I all had Covid-19 in April and recovered after 2 weeks.
Even with more than 100k saved in cash and investments would not dream of risking it playing poker leaving work and stop earning if physically able to be honest.
Good luck in the challenge though looks fun hope you profit subscribed but keep a job unless state welfare pays more until you reach that retirement age total goal £ sum then go pro but seriously though,
Most of the best pros have sponsorship book deals,coaching, Twitch channels and many different revenue streams for example not just the games they play it is too risky leaving all your eggs in one basket the more revenue streams the better.

Click to expand...

For all the time of conversations and all the events related to Covid-19, you are the only person from whom, as I heard, he fell ill with this disease. I have many friends around the world, but not they, not their friends, were not sick during this period. I even began to suspect that Covid-19 does not exist !!! It turns out there is. (Media I do not believe) I am glad that you and your family have recovered!
I agree with your comments that it is dangerous to quit work now! In poker, luck is a rare thing!:wavey:

It's war here we go

To many poker players and fans of the game, "pro" simply means top player in the field. You think you can reach that status in such a short time? My guess is that the pro's that have had success have been playing for years at high stake games. What would it take for you to feel like you've reached the level of play that you could justify calling yourself a pro? I'd really think long and hard before quitting your day job. Try searching out a live game with some high rollers see how you stack up against their play it will be a real test to see if you can hold your own then you can reevaluate your game plan on your quest of becoming a pro poker player

EVA777 said:

For all the time of conversations and all the events related to Covid-19, you are the only person from whom, as I heard, he fell ill with this disease. I have many friends around the world, but not they, not their friends, were not sick during this period. I even began to suspect that Covid-19 does not exist !!! It turns out there is. (Media I do not believe) I am glad that you and your family have recovered!
I agree with your comments that it is dangerous to quit work now! In poker, luck is a rare thing!:wavey:

Click to expand...

What planet are you living on?
As of today there have been just short of 10 million cases of COVID-19 that have been tested with a positive result. And almost 1/2 million deaths! Maybe not in your neighborhood but in some places it is overwhelming hospitals/health care system & is devastating.
(not meaning to derail this thread.... and there actually is a thread devoted to this topic elsewhere on the forum)

mollymaggie said:

To many poker players and fans of the game, "pro" simply means top player in the field.

It does? Is that what Google search told you?
I've always thought a pro is someone who makes it their profession... their source of income.

You think you can reach that status in such a short time?

Why are you assuming it is over such a short time? afaik, this guy has been playing online poker for over 10yrs.


My guess is that the pro's that have had success have been playing for years at high stake games.

That depends on what you consider 'success'. I would consider success to be one who is a winning player... or 'pro' one who is winning & earning a living from it. There are many pros online that play low stakes games.

What would it take for you to feel like you've reached the level of play that you could justify calling yourself a pro? I'd really think long and hard before quitting your day job. Try searching out a live game with some high rollers see how you stack up against their play it will be a real test to see if you can hold your own then you can reevaluate your game plan on your quest of becoming a pro poker player

Click to expand...

I'm not sure why OP (LukeSilver) would want to seek out a live game with high rollers when I'm quite certain that isn't the format he plays. I'm fairly certain that 99.9% of their play is 'online'.

So OP should seek out a high rollers game (are there many (any) live games going these days) & how they do in that game will give them their answer?

mollymaggie said:

To many poker players and fans of the game, "pro" simply means top player in the field. You think you can reach that status in such a short time? My guess is that the pro's that have had success have been playing for years at high stake games. What would it take for you to feel like you've reached the level of play that you could justify calling yourself a pro? I'd really think long and hard before quitting your day job. Try searching out a live game with some high rollers see how you stack up against their play it will be a real test to see if you can hold your own then you can reevaluate your game plan on your quest of becoming a pro poker player

Click to expand...

I think poker orrifice has answered most of your reply for me but still thought I would respond.

by pro I mean been able to make a living of the game. I think your getting confused because when people think of pro athletes they are thinking of world class athletes. I do not consider I need to be a world class poker player in order to be a pro poker player. All i need from that is to be able to pay my rent taxes bills food and leisure activities.

Currently I make £10 per hour from my day job. one could say that in order to be match this at poker I need to make more than £10 an hour but lets break that down.

I travel an hour to work and an hour back so my day consists of 10 hours of my day been lost for 7 and a half hours paid work so am I been paid £10 an hour or £7.50? of course all that is a moot point because I have to pay tax. since I earn a low income and work four days a week my tax is on the low side but it still adds up. 8.6% tax so my £75 a day after tax is £68.55 now dividing by ten for time lost of the day and I am now making £6.85 an hour. of course this is all based on that a friend gives me a lift in everyday and refuses to take petrol money if they did not do this I would need to spend £56 a month on the bus.
that suddenly means that 13% of my wage is been lost on the bus and taxes. plus the bus takes longer so that adds another hour so now I have an 11 hour day of my time used instead of ten. All that been considered I apparently make £5.93 an hour.

for the record after taxes my wage from work is £1187 so to be in an equal situation i need to make £39.57 a day call it £40. £40 per day is £280 a week so a 40 hour week I would need to make £7 an hour. The reason i do 4 days a week is for my studies as I do an open uni degree part time and I need time to do that. but if I save the time on travel instead of working 30 hours a week i could work 40 hours a week and be in exactly the same spot as I would if I had worked 30 hours a week.

long story short if I quit my job for poker I need to be able to make £7 an hour from poker, to be exactly in the same spot financially as I am working.

However people seem to be missing something that I have said multiple times throughout this thread and in other places. so sorry I will put it in block capitals to be clear.
I DO NOT WANT TO RISK QUITTING MY JOB FOR POKER I ONLY PLAN TO DO THIS IF THE CORONAVIRUS SPREADS AT A MUCH FASTER RATE AND IT BECOMES CLEAR I AM SIGNIFICANLY ENDANGERING MINE AND MY GIRLFRIENDS LIFE BY DOING SO. OR IF MY INCOME FROM POKER EXCEEDS TWICE MY HOURLY WAGE IN THIS CASE I WOULD NEED TO MAKE CLOSE TO £14 AN HOUR.

now onto another point my game focuses on 30 blinds or less poker I have been a tournament poker play/sit and go poker player my entire time playing poker. whilst I have thought about branching out and experimenting with learning cash game poker I do not intend to do so any time soon.

I am on the autistic spectrum thats not relevant to much except life poker i am not good at reading people and give of tells i do not realize. at small stakes cash or small stakes live tournaments this is not an issue as people are rarely astute enough to spot and realize exactly what my tells mean the odd person is but its rare and not enough to impact. generally a rule in poker is the higher the stakes the better the calibre of player. This of course is not a cast in stone rule you can probably find players at $2 NLH cash who are better then some of the players at $5000 NHL fish exist at all stakes. However I doubt even the strongest regs at $2 NHL would be profitable at $5000 NLH. I do not know exactly what you mean by high rollers but assume you mean high stakes players. generally the smallest stakes I have seen life was 25/50 p blinds so £50 NLH most casinos offer either some form of 50p/£1 blinds or £1/£1 blinds £100 NLH or £1/2 NLH. i think mid stakes would be at least £5/10 £1000 NLH or £10/£25£2500 NLH. for high stakes I would assume we mean at least £50/£100 blind levels so £10000 NLH.

When i am considering playing poker for a living to avoid the coronavirus pandemic your advise is i go and play live poker, for which I have many weakness that do not exist for me in online poker, further this also exposes me to the coronavirus much more since we are constantly exchanging chips and sitting close to each other.
Further you recommend I do this against what is likely some of the best calibre of poker players around in a game format that I am not trained/competent in. I do not have £10000 spare so would have to stake my entire bankroll to buyin. and of course the variance in a single session or two in poker cash games will be very large so even if i did win here this would proof nothing.

Short of deciding to stab myself with a sharp blade everytime I win a pot I cannot really think of anything more stupid and illogical for my current situation.

Poker Orifice said:

I'm not sure why OP (LukeSilver) would want to seek out a live game with high rollers when I'm quite certain that isn't the format he plays. I'm fairly certain that 99.9% of their play is 'online'.

So OP should seek out a high rollers game (are there many (any) live games going these days) & how they do in that game will give them their answer?

Click to expand...

If you think a profession makes you a pro you're delusional, to say the least. LukeSilver stated he would give it 4 months to see if he could make a living to the point of quitting a job. Vegas Casino's offer the high stakes game now and offer a safe experience to play. It makes no difference to me he plays online he wanted comments from people that thought he could make a living playing poker

Playing for fun mixed with lots of hours ofs seems to be the perfect combo!

mollymaggie said:

If you think a profession makes you a pro you're delusional, to say the least. LukeSilver stated he would give it 4 months to see if he could make a living to the point of quitting a job. Vegas Casino's offer the high stakes game now and offer a safe experience to play. It makes no difference to me he plays online he wanted comments from people that thought he could make a living playing poker

Click to expand...

I see you have not taken in anything that either of us have said to you. by definition profession makes you a pro.

However quite frankly I could not care less if you wanted to call me a pro or an iggidy biggidy bob, what matters to me is that I take the least risky way of protecting me and my girlfriend and securing our future. In order to do that I need to make at least £7 an hour to afford my bills, anything more and I am doing better then my current job anything less and it is not viable. I do not need to risk my entire bankroll at highstake games.

its about trying to avoid a deadly virus.