is it possible to make a living long term from online poker in the future?

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LukeSilver

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The fact is online poker is dying the traffic isn't what it used to be and now as more and more people catch on to the idea that they can make money from online poker rather then having to report to a boss and ask for time off when needed etc they can make more working online and take time off whenever.

the fact is this doesn't end in Europe or rich western countries or at high even low stakes. sure for someone in the European or rich countries playing $1.50 sit and goes is not making a living. however in poorer countries $1.50 an hour is more then a competitive wage. and before you question how they can afford computers please note things cost a lot less in these countries and they don't need the latest models.

so where am I going with all this? well the fact is you would think this would be good news for the sites but it isn't.

there have been numerous rigged theories that make no sense, one such theory the logic for rejecting it is directly related to where I am going with this long post. the idea that the sites increase the frequency of big hands v big hands in order to get bigger pots and therefore more rake is absurd.

This idea would work if we were all billionaires frequently reloading and continuing to play hand after hand, but the truth is most players do not stick to strict bankroll management, and once there roll is depleted they wont be back until at least there next pay check to deposit some, it would make far more sense for the sites to do just the opposite in order to generate rake over a prolonged period so that both accounts can be slowly drained.

now my brother has been a professional player making a few k a month in the past and has some friends who make a lot more and they have been saying soon it wont be possible to make anything from online poker and there trying to make as much as possible before the bubble bursts. I think it may have already.

The same thing seems to keep happening I go on a winning streak and am doing well then I hit the wall and its like a cliff dive down the graph, and I cant win with anything AA all in I am scared unless I hit a set or better with no runner runner draws for my oppenents. ak constaly loses to ace rag pairs lose to an over card and an under card and I can predict it every time.

it is so constant that I seriously maintain if you were sitting next me id take bets against my hands. and this isn't a one of or a an occasional bad beat its consistent and holds up to scientifically verifiable methods. over long periods I break even until eventually I lose it and tilt off.

so why would the sites do this? the answer is obvious if left to the natural flow of events fish who do not use bank roll management would bust pretty fast, and there not going to deposit until pay day, its like the big hands clashes the sites want to keep players in the game as long as possible. and for me or anyone else to be a consistent winner someone or some people have to be consistent loses which means they are not coming back. for a while it makes sense for the sites to keep them in the game as long as possible, and therefore the rng been programed to alter the odds against winners is definitely something in the sites interest. it prolongs the total playing time and therefore prolongs the rake.

I keep track of who I play watching for regs do they try to outplay me are they adapting the overwhelming evidence is no im not been put in tough spots by them or finding anything weird going on. I mark people who call of light do I see them often|? no.

so I am asking It makes sense to fix the games so that they last rather then so that skilled players can make a living, is it really implausible? let me ask you this how many of you are making a living from this how many of you are like me only slightly making a profit, until they tilt it off.

how many are noticing the same experiences? think it through before you remain so close minded of it.
 
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cotta777

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Luke although your theory is absurd as you say and so many will say its nonsense.
I certainly do share your thoughts and think there are alot of aspects that could improve revenue for poker sites players being on tilt causing more losses and resulting in more rake.
definately think its possible to track and label players based on how many fpps they get and I definately think Sequenced variance as evident to some extent

And also there are alot of glitches that sites could notably get away with extremely easily.

One thing I have noticed is sequenced variance I often find myself predicting the turn and river accurately on pokerstars and have struggled to get out of the break even catogary in certain games.

This problem is less of an issue on 888 which is alot weaker I find it quite easy to sustain a profit.

I've also adjusted my game to a sequenced variance concept kind of like a trial on pokerstars, Where based on my current run on other tables and last few winning flips I will avoid more flips.

one thing I notably see is if you are dealt a series of monster hands, you will always get a glitch come up like a sequenced runner runner lose to AJ via a straight or lose to a smaller set.

I 100% feel multi tabling tournaments and sit and goes is close to unbeatable for a novice with no poker tracker on pokerstars and they would experience this up and down break even problem.

You can never be certain and you can never be 100% sure about anything in this day and age.
and you just dont know for sure what online poker sites are capable of.

ofcourse with bankroll management its beatable applied to a correct strategy and skilled play, but I do believe you have to be of a certain pedigree to excel online due to the swings you will experience and crazy things that happen.

Il also note that certain games like hypers I've lost a significant amount of flips especially heads up, I stay well away from those games
 
vinylspiros

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In, will be back later with a reply. Just liked this topic and wanted to sub.
 
AlfieAA

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I play in good faith that the games online are clean, and I don't listen to people who are for or against it coz nobody knows apart from the people that run them no matter how intelligent outsiders claim they are....who knows, maybe the games are juiced up to get more action or maybe its not...can't say I've seen any evidence either way in the games I've played, just take it all in my stride, the good with the bad......as for skill levels, it depends on if you are willing to get better than the competition at your stake level....if you can be a thinking level ahead of them then you are gonna have an edge....that's why its important to always want to improve....whether you've been playing the game 40 minutes or 40 years.
 
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The fact is online poker is dying the traffic isn't what it used to be and now as more and more people catch on to the idea that they can make money from online poker rather then having to report to a boss and ask for time off when needed etc they can make more working online and take time off whenever.

the fact is this doesn't end in Europe or rich western countries or at high even low stakes. sure for someone in the European or rich countries playing $1.50 sit and goes is not making a living. however in poorer countries $1.50 an hour is more then a competitive wage. and before you question how they can afford computers please note things cost a lot less in these countries and they don't need the latest models.

so where am I going with all this? well the fact is you would think this would be good news for the sites but it isn't.

there have been numerous rigged theories that make no sense, one such theory the logic for rejecting it is directly related to where I am going with this long post. the idea that the sites increase the frequency of big hands v big hands in order to get bigger pots and therefore more rake is absurd.

This idea would work if we were all billionaires frequently reloading and continuing to play hand after hand, but the truth is most players do not stick to strict bankroll management, and once there roll is depleted they wont be back until at least there next pay check to deposit some, it would make far more sense for the sites to do just the opposite in order to generate rake over a prolonged period so that both accounts can be slowly drained.

now my brother has been a professional player making a few k a month in the past and has some friends who make a lot more and they have been saying soon it wont be possible to make anything from online poker and there trying to make as much as possible before the bubble bursts. I think it may have already.

The same thing seems to keep happening I go on a winning streak and am doing well then I hit the wall and its like a cliff dive down the graph, and I cant win with anything AA all in I am scared unless I hit a set or better with no runner runner draws for my oppenents. ak constaly loses to ace rag pairs lose to an over card and an under card and I can predict it every time.

it is so constant that I seriously maintain if you were sitting next me id take bets against my hands. and this isn't a one of or a an occasional bad beat its consistent and holds up to scientifically verifiable methods. over long periods I break even until eventually I lose it and tilt off.

so why would the sites do this? the answer is obvious if left to the natural flow of events fish who do not use bank roll management would bust pretty fast, and there not going to deposit until pay day, its like the big hands clashes the sites want to keep players in the game as long as possible. and for me or anyone else to be a consistent winner someone or some people have to be consistent loses which means they are not coming back. for a while it makes sense for the sites to keep them in the game as long as possible, and therefore the rng been programed to alter the odds against winners is definitely something in the sites interest. it prolongs the total playing time and therefore prolongs the rake.

I keep track of who I play watching for regs do they try to outplay me are they adapting the overwhelming evidence is no im not been put in tough spots by them or finding anything weird going on. I mark people who call of light do I see them often|? no.

so I am asking It makes sense to fix the games so that they last rather then so that skilled players can make a living, is it really implausible? let me ask you this how many of you are making a living from this how many of you are like me only slightly making a profit, until they tilt it off.

how many are noticing the same experiences? think it through before you remain so close minded of it.

It had better be possible to make a living playing poker online. I was laid off on Dec. 5 and will be trying to make a living playing online cash games.

As for your ridiculous claims about "sequenced variance", I can only say two things:

1. There is no such thing. If something is sequenced then it isn't random.
2. I've been a winning player (with a traditional full-time job) online for over 11 years. I've played at every online site out there, and I've won at every site. I've never once had to change my approach to account for "sequenced variance". I stick with the odds that standard mathematics recommends, and I do just fine. Furthermore, the compilation of millions of hands of data from every major online poker site has been completed and analyzed, and no major online poker site shows any evidence of RNG tampering. There is literally NO WAY to rig the randomization algorithm in a way that won't be caught by statistical verification models (and I know what I'm talking about, as I have a Masters in Applied Stats). None. It's really that simple.

We all run good sometimes and we all run bad sometimes. The reason that you win for a while and then lose it all is simple: you are a mediocre (or worse) player. When you run good, you win. When your "hot streak" ends, you lose --- because your true poker ability is that of a losing player.

My true ability is that of a winning player. Sometimes I lose. When I do, I'm either running bad or playing bad --- and possibly both. The reason that I win in the long term is twofold: 1. I don't tilt anymore. I have gotten completely comfortable with the variance in poker, and it no longer affects me. 2. I always exercise good bankroll management, so I never compound my losses by moving up in stakes. Skilled players that don't tilt and exercise good BR management are nearly certain to win in the long run --- and I'm fortunate that I'm one of them.

If you want to be a better poker player, improve your mental game. Truly accept variance. Evaluate your play after the fact. Study. And accept that fact that, in order to win consistently, it's YOU that needs to be fixed --- not the online RNGs.

Good luck.

-HooDooKoo
 
Aces2w1n

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I like to keep things simple.


Poker online is harder to make money from, but it's not due to any rigging or scheming from the sites.

It's based on your notion about 1.50 meaning a lot though actually a lot of players out there have the common interest in not reporting to a boss which means games will be harder and profits will be harder to come by.

Also one of the most common mistakes players make is that people think other people see poker in the same light. But to be perfectly honest everyone has their own reasons and see things totally different.

Easy response to this message you sent. I disagree but it is an interesting concept but it's definetly something sites and people who keep an eye on gambling online have to keep a watchful eye for. People can overlook small amounts and for this reason it is possible.
 
WeenieSVK

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What a great response hoodookoo. You wrote all what I was thinking plus some bonuses :D

LukeSilver believe me pokersite isnt your enemy, your biggest enemy is your head :)
 
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Il also note that certain games like hypers I've lost a significant amount of flips especially heads up, I stay well away from those games

None of these opinions are new for you, cotta, so I'm going to ignore most of them (as I've made my feelings about them clear in the past). I will, instead, focus on one statement from above (see bolded text).

Hyper SNGs (whether HU or single table) are the highest variance type of poker available online. You may have run badly in your (small, I'm sure) sample --- but that isn't be surprising at all since there is SO MUCH VARIANCE in hypers.

My point is this: if you want to stay away from hypers, then I totally understand that. Stay away from hypers. But please don't suggest (imply) that hypers are rigged and that's why you had such bad "flipping" results. I used to be a HU specialist, and I made a ton of money in hypers. Skilled hyper players are the MOST profitable (on average) players playing online. They all have bad runs, because the variance in hypers is high. But, like in every type of poker, skill wins out in the long run (assuming no tilt and good BR management).

Poker results have NOTHIING to do with feng shui, or astrology, or numerology, or the phase of the moon. Instead, poker results are dependent on consistently making better decisions that your opposition. It really is that simple.

Good luck.

-HooDooKoo
 
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What a great response hoodookoo. You wrote all what I was thinking plus some bonuses :D

LukeSilver believe me pokersite isnt your enemy, your biggest enemy is your head :)

Thanks, Weenie.

Best of luck to you.

-HooDooKoo
 
Refinado Tom

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Hi Luke. I share your idea. I know that a day will happen a black friday on pokerstars and this will the end forever with this site of the deception where Nadal plays its first sit between professionals and earn !!! :congrats::congrats:
They also know this and continue to receive maximum benefit as possible until that happens. Then take the posta somewhere else more controlled where not throw floped straight to UTG, flush on the turn to MP1 and full on the river to the button. Then there will begin the true online poker.

I believe that online poker will continue for the rest of our lives.
Meanwhile we remain prisoners players of Pokerstars.
 
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LukeSilver, I started a thread once on here saying that occasionally I KNEW what was going to drop on the River, and asking whether anyone else ever had that feeling. It was immediately incorporated into the 'Rigged' thread, even though I had never suggested online poker was 'rigged' and still don't. The immediate response was from members who had obviously not read my post properly (like this one) who insisted poker was not rigged because the sites would not dare to do anything underhand as it would sully their reputation!
I'm afraid that the vast majority of members will band together where they feel safest - poo-pooing any suggestion that online poker sites are anything but 100% above board...despite the many incidents which demonstrate the opposite.
But, yes, occasionally (perhaps once in a MTT) I absolutely know what will drop and I've rarely been wrong (I can remember only one occasion). I do not multi-table so I watch every hand, and it's frequently when I'm not in the hand - so I'm not moaning about losing to a bad beat. I wonder whether sub-conciously I might have seen that particular hand previously? I've been playing for about 8 years, and am retired so I've played hundreds of thousands of hands.
 
Henry Minute

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But, yes, occasionally (perhaps once in a MTT) I absolutely know what will drop and I've rarely been wrong (I can remember only one occasion). I do not multi-table so I watch every hand, and it's frequently when I'm not in the hand - so I'm not moaning about losing to a bad beat. I wonder whether sub-conciously I might have seen that particular hand previously? I've been playing for about 8 years, and am retired so I've played hundreds of thousands of hands.
Like you, I have only ever been wrong once in my entire life. That was once when I thought I was wrong but it turned out I was right all the time.
 
ccocco

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the reality is that only 4% live poker players online, others are held with a major bankroll poker but do not live, use it as a hobby, as you said you have to know very well asministrar bankroll to play no deposit every month .. regards
 
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No reason to actually rig the game.
There are more than enough gamblers playing online that will take care of the rake.
It is way more about number of players playing.
 
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ok I think people need to understand my mind set and my actual situation because a few things are been assumed about me which are not true.

1. I am not a losing player, as has been suggested here, I am actually a winning player the thing is my winning rate is basically low enough that id probably make more working at McDonalds in Honderous. not sure if that country is spelt right and that may be a slight exaggeration but it sums up my frustrations.

As people may or may not know I am aspergus (high functioning autism) I don't get on with people I never have. ive always been the out cast. one thing I have never liked in life is uncertainty hence poker seems a bad idea. I did a degree in accounting and finance from a good university and got a 2,1 I cant get work though. did you know what the actual employment rate for people with autism is? 15% that means 85% of us are out of work and most of the 15% that are in work are either temporary from job to job or special jobs specifically created for retards that are basically charity.

now I am well aware that I am no phil ivey or Tom Dwan, and im not going to do a Phil Helmuth and say I am the best in the world its just bad luck blah blah.

and ive always realised one thing ive had is a high mathematical IQ. ive recently been working on a spreadsheet that is supposed to cover perfect ranges and plays for every street as to be near exploitless. is this the right way to go? for low stakes sit and goes where you don't always meet the same opponents probably. but for higher stakes where you meet the same regulars again obviously you need to realise how to exploit how they adapt and how to change or be unpredictable enough to not be exploited etc and exploit. obviously the more I know about ranges the easier this will be. ive been in contact with some individuals who tried to give me a few pointers and it definitely makes sense, but I already decided there and then that 3 bet and 4 bet range merging for low stakes sit and goes probably isn't a sensible idea and I have not implemented that. it was easier before when the americans played and the dons were available and it cost 4% rake and theyd do retarded things like playing 89 and then getting all in on an ak8 flop.

id easily make $30 an hour without much effort. I am aware the standard has increased and its not that easy anymore, but theres still fish and plenty of them, and I still understand what I am doing in dons. so I deposited $60 on a site got it up to 130 went on a down swing to 60 got it back up to $163.

see when I hit 60 I took some time out and really thought it through ok what can I do to change this I tightened my range to what I call the 66% range which basically works simply by working out the different number of hand permutations pre flop and adapting a range which means entering from any position there is a 66% chance that no one behind me has a hand that beats the bottom of my range. why 66%?

because if you raise to 3bb and everyone folds when you have them beat but only calls when they have you beat assuming u check fold every flop (which for obvious reasons I don't do) then 66% of the time you win 1 and a half bb. 33% of the time you lose 3 bb. 3 times 0.33=0.99. 1.5* 0.66 = 0.99.

so if I was playing oppenents that could only make pre flop decisions to be ahead of me perfectly only entering when they are, id break even plus lucky flops id be plus ev.

now I know post flop plays a part to and often what I get called by is actually behind my range most of the time but ok they have position usually though at my stakes people arnt exploiting because if they were theyd of figured out my range and come over the top on boards that wernt likely to be good for me. 876 etc but vast majorty of the time c bet takes it clearly no adaptation.

I am also aware of range merging and etc and would look at combining suited connectors for more astute opposition. however when I am been called by j10 in a don clearly my opposition is not at the level where these kind of things are necessary.

I know someone winging about how they are doing in $1.50 or $5 sit and goes may seem like a joke, I still apply for jobs regulary and get the occasional shifts about two-three times a week working min wage in bar work etc where people say im weird and to go away.

so I made the decision I can blame the site for been rigged or I can look for any gaps in my game any flaws. one thing was when I had the drop I looked for reasons I had got a new laptop and now wasn't relying on browser through a mac but was using the actual game software with tiling this allowed me to move from playing 5-6 tables at a time to 12. the down swing had happened almost the same time so I cut back the tables to 8 at a time.

I applied the 66% range to avoid been to loose varying according to chip stack sizes, eg when short u have to shove a lot lighter and when deep it makes sense to avoid pots full stop hence probably drop to a range of playing 4% of hands. talking about oince more then doubled up etc.

the results spoke for themselves I went up from $60 to 163 I then woke up to find something weird a notice about a promotion I had not heard of and money been credited to my account. a $35 credit I was now at $198 this made me happy and feel a real sense of optimism.

then today I played and won 3 of 8 great typical just had nasty luck. then it happened 1 of 8 kk v 107 suited aa lost to qj that hit quads he saw a guy raise called saw me shove and saw him call and then decided to call a two way all in with qj and hit quads. if I have to explain why calling a two way all in when all three players have gained a 3rd of there stack already, meaning all healthy and etc with qj suited is a bad play then clearly there is no point in discussing poker ever with you unless you claim to know something weird about the site programming and can show a shark scope with a positive roi. I then lost ak suited vkq suited aq called by k9. k9 shove to bb from sb called by a5 which lost. btw k9 does fit into the 66% range when sb v bb but I can shove lighter there anyway because icm says they should callme tighter. but even without that k9 isn't a mistake shove.

why am I going into all this detail because my point is I can predict it in advance whenever I run real hot I suddenly hit the wall with abd beat after bad beat and etc. and it seems im always slighty plus roi but real border line and seem to only reaslly be going up from bonuses and promotions etc. anyway long story I am now down to $150 and to say that I am incandescent and teeming with rage through the orifices may be a slight understatement. well ive calmed down now and was writing this earler and decided it best to go out for a walk and to get some air.

ok so im down $43 as I said I take it seriously. and its not the amount its the proportion of my current bank roll. and obviously and losing 22% of it winds me up. and yes I know this doesn't meet strict bank roll management in theory I should have 40 buyins for any sit and go but dons are sposed to be more stable, and if I go to play $1 again im going to end up punching myself in the face when I lose $7 and I think really I should be losing at least $20 for a face punch.

ok I am joking with that comment but just venting.

I looked up the shark scope of some regulars I have been seeing they are making + or minus 1% before rake back or promotions etc. yeah im aware that 10% reg fee for a don is awful im just saying id expect a higher win rate. and it gets very suspicious that I seem to hit this unlucky wall whenever it finally going well. I know ive still got work to do and am working on my game all the time, I was inspired to take poker more seriously after seeing an article about a robot, but that's another story.

I still have my suspicions that the sites are manipulating the software to keep the fish in the game longer they care about rake not my profit.

that been said casinos cant manipulate the cards to pro long rake I am making money even if it is less then min wage im gonna save it up and eventually play life in the meantime regardless of the riggedness of sites or noit im makin g money even if it is pennies and that's savings that can give me a roll long term for life play. I plan to train my mind and perfect my game in the mean time I think its time I start learning about the more advanced things of poker tracker to fine tune my game and learn more stuff I don't know how to do this so if someone is willing to give me advice that would be appreciated still think the sites messed up.
 
pfb8888

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I agree that some or all of the sites may juice the deck....

but if you really think they really are targeting better players ....why play? why do you think you can get around their rigged software?


and is it possible for you to work at social relationships as hard as you seem to work at poker ?
 
miamia

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to many players are in holdem.Now im study omaha and not many players playing this game,many on ring cash tables came to learn and make mistakes,this is oportunity to make profit,however this new players learn,than we have hard competition,for good holdem players future to make profit are others games like badugi,razz,mixed games,where people stiil learning playing thats games
 
Blobweird123

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LukeSilver, I started a thread once on here saying that occasionally I KNEW what was going to drop on the River, and asking whether anyone else ever had that feeling. It was immediately incorporated into the 'Rigged' thread, even though I had never suggested online poker was 'rigged' and still don't. The immediate response was from members who had obviously not read my post properly (like this one) who insisted poker was not rigged because the sites would not dare to do anything underhand as it would sully their reputation!
I'm afraid that the vast majority of members will band together where they feel safest - poo-pooing any suggestion that online poker sites are anything but 100% above board...despite the many incidents which demonstrate the opposite.
But, yes, occasionally (perhaps once in a MTT) I absolutely know what will drop and I've rarely been wrong (I can remember only one occasion). I do not multi-table so I watch every hand, and it's frequently when I'm not in the hand - so I'm not moaning about losing to a bad beat. I wonder whether sub-conciously I might have seen that particular hand previously? I've been playing for about 8 years, and am retired so I've played hundreds of thousands of hands.

This whole paragraph is ridiculous...
 
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I got it up to $215 but now have to cash out $165 of it to pay a bill but cant until 72 hours are up sigh
 
Poker Orifice

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LukeSilver, I started a thread once on here saying that occasionally I KNEW what was going to drop on the River, and asking whether anyone else ever had that feeling. It was immediately incorporated into the 'Rigged' thread, even though I had never suggested online poker was 'rigged' and still don't. The immediate response was from members who had obviously not read my post properly (like this one) who insisted poker was not rigged because the sites would not dare to do anything underhand as it would sully their reputation!
I'm afraid that the vast majority of members will band together where they feel safest - poo-pooing any suggestion that online poker sites are anything but 100% above board...despite the many incidents which demonstrate the opposite.
But, yes, occasionally (perhaps once in a MTT) I absolutely know what will drop and I've rarely been wrong (I can remember only one occasion). I do not multi-table so I watch every hand, and it's frequently when I'm not in the hand - so I'm not moaning about losing to a bad beat. I wonder whether sub-conciously I might have seen that particular hand previously? I've been playing for about 8 years, and am retired so I've played hundreds of thousands of hands.

You sir must be a GAZILLIONAIRE!!!

It's sad to read posts like your's... so dillusional.

Read over Hoodookoo's first post on this thread. What part do you not understand? Why do you make the choice to fail to look a reality? Is it perhaps because you're a losing player but 'should' be a winner (if it weren't for the software boogieman). Oh that's right... how could I forget this > you can predict what cards are coming out & are a gazllionaire as a result.


Move this nonsense to the riggedtard thread please!
 
luckytvguy

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I"ve asked that question before,like other before.Now,I have a idea,most of us cant.I have to be the top 10%.
 
Jblocher1

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ok I think people need to understand my mind set and my actual situation because a few things are been assumed about me which are not true.

1. I am not a losing player, as has been suggested here, I am actually a winning player the thing is my winning rate is basically low enough that id probably make more working at McDonalds in Honderous. not sure if that country is spelt right and that may be a slight exaggeration but it sums up my frustrations.

As people may or may not know I am aspergus (high functioning autism) I don't get on with people I never have. ive always been the out cast. one thing I have never liked in life is uncertainty hence poker seems a bad idea. I did a degree in accounting and finance from a good university and got a 2,1 I cant get work though. did you know what the actual employment rate for people with autism is? 15% that means 85% of us are out of work and most of the 15% that are in work are either temporary from job to job or special jobs specifically created for retards that are basically charity.

now I am well aware that I am no phil ivey or Tom Dwan, and im not going to do a Phil Helmuth and say I am the best in the world its just bad luck blah blah.

and ive always realised one thing ive had is a high mathematical IQ. ive recently been working on a spreadsheet that is supposed to cover perfect ranges and plays for every street as to be near exploitless. is this the right way to go? for low stakes sit and goes where you don't always meet the same opponents probably. but for higher stakes where you meet the same regulars again obviously you need to realise how to exploit how they adapt and how to change or be unpredictable enough to not be exploited etc and exploit. obviously the more I know about ranges the easier this will be. ive been in contact with some individuals who tried to give me a few pointers and it definitely makes sense, but I already decided there and then that 3 bet and 4 bet range merging for low stakes sit and goes probably isn't a sensible idea and I have not implemented that. it was easier before when the americans played and the dons were available and it cost 4% rake and theyd do retarded things like playing 89 and then getting all in on an ak8 flop.

id easily make $30 an hour without much effort. I am aware the standard has increased and its not that easy anymore, but theres still fish and plenty of them, and I still understand what I am doing in dons. so I deposited $60 on a site got it up to 130 went on a down swing to 60 got it back up to $163.

see when I hit 60 I took some time out and really thought it through ok what can I do to change this I tightened my range to what I call the 66% range which basically works simply by working out the different number of hand permutations pre flop and adapting a range which means entering from any position there is a 66% chance that no one behind me has a hand that beats the bottom of my range. why 66%?

because if you raise to 3bb and everyone folds when you have them beat but only calls when they have you beat assuming u check fold every flop (which for obvious reasons I don't do) then 66% of the time you win 1 and a half bb. 33% of the time you lose 3 bb. 3 times 0.33=0.99. 1.5* 0.66 = 0.99.

so if I was playing oppenents that could only make pre flop decisions to be ahead of me perfectly only entering when they are, id break even plus lucky flops id be plus ev.

now I know post flop plays a part to and often what I get called by is actually behind my range most of the time but ok they have position usually though at my stakes people arnt exploiting because if they were theyd of figured out my range and come over the top on boards that wernt likely to be good for me. 876 etc but vast majorty of the time c bet takes it clearly no adaptation.

I am also aware of range merging and etc and would look at combining suited connectors for more astute opposition. however when I am been called by j10 in a don clearly my opposition is not at the level where these kind of things are necessary.

I know someone winging about how they are doing in $1.50 or $5 sit and goes may seem like a joke, I still apply for jobs regulary and get the occasional shifts about two-three times a week working min wage in bar work etc where people say im weird and to go away.

so I made the decision I can blame the site for been rigged or I can look for any gaps in my game any flaws. one thing was when I had the drop I looked for reasons I had got a new laptop and now wasn't relying on browser through a mac but was using the actual game software with tiling this allowed me to move from playing 5-6 tables at a time to 12. the down swing had happened almost the same time so I cut back the tables to 8 at a time.

I applied the 66% range to avoid been to loose varying according to chip stack sizes, eg when short u have to shove a lot lighter and when deep it makes sense to avoid pots full stop hence probably drop to a range of playing 4% of hands. talking about oince more then doubled up etc.

the results spoke for themselves I went up from $60 to 163 I then woke up to find something weird a notice about a promotion I had not heard of and money been credited to my account. a $35 credit I was now at $198 this made me happy and feel a real sense of optimism.

then today I played and won 3 of 8 great typical just had nasty luck. then it happened 1 of 8 kk v 107 suited aa lost to qj that hit quads he saw a guy raise called saw me shove and saw him call and then decided to call a two way all in with qj and hit quads. if I have to explain why calling a two way all in when all three players have gained a 3rd of there stack already, meaning all healthy and etc with qj suited is a bad play then clearly there is no point in discussing poker ever with you unless you claim to know something weird about the site programming and can show a shark scope with a positive roi. I then lost ak suited vkq suited aq called by k9. k9 shove to bb from sb called by a5 which lost. btw k9 does fit into the 66% range when sb v bb but I can shove lighter there anyway because icm says they should callme tighter. but even without that k9 isn't a mistake shove.

why am I going into all this detail because my point is I can predict it in advance whenever I run real hot I suddenly hit the wall with abd beat after bad beat and etc. and it seems im always slighty plus roi but real border line and seem to only reaslly be going up from bonuses and promotions etc. anyway long story I am now down to $150 and to say that I am incandescent and teeming with rage through the orifices may be a slight understatement. well ive calmed down now and was writing this earler and decided it best to go out for a walk and to get some air.

ok so im down $43 as I said I take it seriously. and its not the amount its the proportion of my current bank roll. and obviously and losing 22% of it winds me up. and yes I know this doesn't meet strict bank roll management in theory I should have 40 buyins for any sit and go but dons are sposed to be more stable, and if I go to play $1 again im going to end up punching myself in the face when I lose $7 and I think really I should be losing at least $20 for a face punch.

ok I am joking with that comment but just venting.

I looked up the shark scope of some regulars I have been seeing they are making + or minus 1% before rake back or promotions etc. yeah im aware that 10% reg fee for a don is awful im just saying id expect a higher win rate. and it gets very suspicious that I seem to hit this unlucky wall whenever it finally going well. I know ive still got work to do and am working on my game all the time, I was inspired to take poker more seriously after seeing an article about a robot, but that's another story.

I still have my suspicions that the sites are manipulating the software to keep the fish in the game longer they care about rake not my profit.

that been said casinos cant manipulate the cards to pro long rake I am making money even if it is less then min wage im gonna save it up and eventually play life in the meantime regardless of the riggedness of sites or noit im makin g money even if it is pennies and that's savings that can give me a roll long term for life play. I plan to train my mind and perfect my game in the mean time I think its time I start learning about the more advanced things of poker tracker to fine tune my game and learn more stuff I don't know how to do this so if someone is willing to give me advice that would be appreciated still think the sites messed up.

You seem like a pretty smart dude.... Don't fall victim to theories of rigged variance though.... Just put in super high volume and you will overcome the downswings, if you have a high enough volume suck outs won't be as emotionally devastating
 
chipstacker

chipstacker

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Apparently there is something new called micro code. Kinda like pushing the hide button on an icon or files. The only way to see it is by opening that sub directory and calling it by function name, then after entering a serious of commands it lines up the code in readable format. This is apparently the newest theory.

This was told to me by a programmer that helped with some of the software that they use.

I doubt that they use it on any small sites or anywhere that has less than 10,000 people on it a day.

But he said that there are algorithmic programs that are designed to work as a part of the software that can interpret the most likely set of cards that will come out, to a better degree than usual because of certain parameters that are known to it, that are unknown to anyone else.


Thus they are given a greater variance because they to a better degree what will be more likely to happen, not exactly what card is coming out.


He also said that they use this only two or three times during only the biggest tournaments so as not to bring attention to it.

But if you think about it, you only need to secure two or three big pots during a tournament to give yourself a good chance to get to the final table.


What do you guys think, for him to be telling me this, it's most likely that it's not true, unless he is happy with what they pay him hourly.
 
sam1chips

sam1chips

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Jan 19, 2011
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Felt like I needed to address this...

I keep track of who I play watching for regs do they try to outplay me are they adapting the overwhelming evidence is no im not been put in tough spots by them or finding anything weird going on. I mark people who call of light do I see them often|? no.
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What exactly are you trying to say, in the bolded text above?

I understand you keeping notes on regular players / players trying to outplay you. And you can assume if they're regular players that you'll see them playing a lot.

And you're keep notes on the players who make light calls, and then don't understand why you don't see them often? Two reasons why you might not see these players often is
1.) They're going broke and busting their bankroll.
2.) They aren't good players, and probably don't play often.

Forgive me if I misunderstood what you are trying to say (I easily could of, the quote is a little confusing) but I'm not sure what you're trying to prove other than you see the regs more often than you see the bad/casual players.
 
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