re: Poker & Is it ok to bluff shove?
Originally Posted by JCW78
It was my understanding that a person only connects with the flop 30% of the time. So if I feel he is weak and missed the flop a big raise should take it down 70% of the time. Because don't we all miss the flop that much. Is this a flawed way of thinking? If it is, let me have it!
this is in theory a logical way of thinking about it, but your problem will lie in when you "feel" he's weak, and when the board is such that he's going to fold to your raise a large % of the time. in other words, you can't just make a "read" in most situations, your play has to be justifiable by the board, stack sizes, metagame, perceived ranges, actual ranges, and some minor factors i haven't mentioned.
an example i thought of would be like, a TAG raises from MP and you defend from the BB. let's give him the range of 88+, AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A9s, A8s, KQ, KQs, and 76s. when the flop comes A53r, you check, he c-bets, and you "feel" he is tight and want to take it down. because damn it, he misses 70% of the time, right?
the truth is he'll continue on that board with a lot of hands (any A, and some TT-type hands) because they're made hands and he doesn't want to be exploited so easily (if he's folding made hands, why is he raising with those hands in the first place, etc), so he'll call. (let's say he folds any non-pair, and any pair lower than an 8. you probably have decent equity against those hands, but you're folding them out! they're the ones you could be beating or have outs against!) you've invested quite a few chips into the pot and it'll probably take a lot more for you to win the pot. while you're the one putting your own chips at risk on a bluff, he's the one with the made hand, and he's leveraging you by saying "you want to bluff? you might have to wager all your chips! besides, i don't believe you'd play Ax this way anyway, you're only repping a set or a bluff!"
there's more i wanna say but i gotta study some philosophy, i'll try to get back to this