Is it good observation or superstition?

StormRaven

StormRaven

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 16, 2009
Total posts
2,510
Chips
0
I will be going to the casino tomorrow night and running into a regular that I had a huge debate with last week. I know this guy (Dave) and he will greet me with some smart-ass remark about our debate last week. Win or lose an argument, he is stubborn to his beliefs.

So I ask you all, what is your view/opinion on the debate we had: *Observation or Superstition?

Overview:
Me: Have you noticed tonight how lucky seat 8 is running on our table tonight? (this is a 1/2 nl cash table).
Dave: Poker is about independent actions, not one has anything to do with a prior action. Seat 8 isn't running lucky, the players in that seat are having short term luck.
Me: I completely agree about the independent actions. However, I also notice that at times it does appear that a particular seat is getting dealt more premium hands and having their hands connect with the board. I'm not saying this happens all the time, but I do believe this happens from time to time, short term.
Dave: People sometimes run good or bad, it makes no difference what seat they are in, it will all equal out in the long term. You are just being superstitious.
Me: Again I agree with you, it will equal out in the long term. However, I do believe in short term patterns, don't you? I notice patterns and tonight the pattern seems to be that seat 8 is getting dealt more AA, KK, QQ more than any other seat AND having those hands stand up.
Dave: No. Every action is independent and so is every hand of the next. You are speaking of superstition. You are saying no matter who jumps in seat 8 at table 12 they will get good cards and connect with the board.
Me: I am saying that once in awhile, for whatever reason that certain patterns arise. Tomorrow night I will not request seat 8 at table 12 because tonight I've watched 3 seperate people sit down, show huge ppr's and huge premium hands connecting with the board and each of those 3 different people leave with more than double the money they sat down with. And I am not saying this happens often. I am saying that tonight, 3 people have shown monsters in that seat, they have all stupidly left the seat, although they each more than doubled their money.
Dave: I still think that is superstitious. The first two players were horrible players, they got lucky. I bet if they were to move to another table or another seat that their luck would continue for tonight. It makes no difference what seat they are in or which table for that matter. Over the long run those two players will lose money. The last player is good, that is why he is winning.
Me: I agree with you that sometimes people are just running good, so no matter where they are at they will continue to run good for that short term. However, I see a pattern of monster hands - and they are connecting with the board - and holding up. This is a good observation, not a superstition. Superstition would be Chelsea, she always requests seat 9 because she feels that is a lucky seat for her. That is superstition.
Dave: Not really, if Chelsea feels that seat 9 is lucky for her and it gives her confidence to play better then it is a smart move, not superstition.
Me: Okay good point. But I will bet you that if I move into seat 8 that I will get premium hands for tonight, have them hold up and leave with more than double my money.
Dave: That's not fair either, it's the same as Chelsea, if you believe that will do better in seat 8 then you will play better and therefore win more money.
Me: Okay, again, good point. How about this? You go and pick out one of the players at a different table that is running bad. Anyone you choose, but they have to be down. I will arrange a seat change with the guy in seat 8 for the player you pick and explain to Bryan (poker room supervisor) what we are doing. How is $50 for a side bet?
Dave: You have a deal. This is just superstition.

**While I recognize that Dave had some valid points to make, I also stand by my original statements that at times, there are short term patterns that a good and observant poker player should take advantage of. I also believe this applys to cards. If you notice that at a certain table, for whatever reason, two 9's keep hitting the board that you should see a cheap flop with any hand that has a 9 in it. Or if you notice that for whatever reason 3 clubs keep hitting the board a good deal more than any other suit you should adjust accordingly.

***So do you believe this is good observation or just superstition? Who do you think won the bet? I really am curious how people perceive this.

Thanks,
Storm
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Chips
0
What do you mean 'there are patterns'? That poker consists of some preset run of cards that everyone goes on every once in a while, and if you recognize this then you can predict they're most likely going to keep going on that run for X hands?

This is the type of thinking that is extremely destructive and is the same thing any smart poker player will tell you is 'flawed'.

Take roulette for example. They always advertise the fact that red or black has or hasn't hit for X spins in a row trying to get people to simply play their game because their game makes money in the long run. People pick red if black's been on a run (or vice versa), and they lose EV because roulette is -EV for the player, and +EV for the casino.

It's a fallacy - runs don't exist. The only thing that exists in this sense is the fact that the player who's getting the pretty side of the short term variance is often going to have some kind of boost in confidence, and will often play better because of it.

Whether or not he picks up more big hands in the next while is completely up to variance, and is irrelevant. That's why the result of your bet doesn't matter, and why I'm surprised your friend, who seems to be thinking correctly to me, took the bet (assuming you're making the bet based on whether or not the next player to sit there will pick up a run of cards).
 
zachvac

zachvac

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 14, 2007
Total posts
7,832
Chips
0
Dave's right, although I think he's over-emphasizing the confidence issue. I would have taken the first bet (unless you're really good and typically more than double your money just through pure skill).
"**While I recognize that Dave had some valid points to make, I also stand by my original statements that at times, there are short term patterns
Right so far.

that a good and observant poker player should take advantage of.
Damn was going so well, this is false. The patterns are in the past, to take advantage of them you have to predict the future.

I also believe this applys to cards. If you notice that at a certain table, for whatever reason, two 9's keep hitting the board that you should see a cheap flop with any hand that has a 9 in it.
Nope, this is just superstition. In fact if a 9 is more likely to hit in any given hand, it means the deck has been rigged. It is possible that in the past more 9's have come up, but the probability of each 9 being any card better damn well be 1/52 or else the deck is rigged.
Or if you notice that for whatever reason 3 clubs keep hitting the board a good deal more than any other suit you should adjust accordingly."
Nope. The observations you make of patterns is perfectly legitimate, but it's in the past. You are then saying you should use past observations to alter your play in the future. You cannot predict the future based on the past.

How about this bet? We'll flip a coin, every time it comes up 3 of one (heads or tails), you bet on that side. If you win I'll give you $4 and if I win you give me $5, would you take this bet? So basically we flip and say after a bit it comes up 3 tails in a row. Now you get to bet on tails. Would you take this bet? Hopefully not, and it basically shows how although poker is a more complex game it still holds the principle that every action, every hand, every card that comes into your hand or onto the board is an independent event that has no knowledge of what has happened in the past. If the last 10 flops have been all clubs, the odds of the next flop containing a club is still exactly the same as before, given that the deck is not rigged.
 
GunslingerZ

GunslingerZ

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 10, 2007
Total posts
411
Chips
0
The chance of something happening 3 times in a row is less likely than it happening once. However, once it happens twice in a row, the chance of it happening the 3rd time is the same as it happening any other one time. You are right that over a large sample, patterns will show up. This is only when you look at the large sample as a whole.

While playing poker, if you see a pattern occurring and then believe it will continue, and adjust your play to try to take advantage of it, that is based completely on superstition and would be a horrible mistake.
 
StormRaven

StormRaven

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 16, 2009
Total posts
2,510
Chips
0
Thank you both for responding with logical replys. I do appreciate that.

I understand the coin flip theory and am trying to understand the roulette one in the same concepts (although I don't play roulette).

I understand what I am saying sounds hipocritcal, to a degree it is and isn't. I have not applied to this theory to anything else other than live texas hold em play. This is the only area I am applying this theory because this is the only area where I seem to have observed short term patterns that I feel comfortable acting on.

**This is based on once in awhile short term patterns, not long term. I understand the long term concepts.

I recognize that each event is an independent one of the other. The vast majority of the time, this is how I play live poker. I also know that night 910xx seemed to be winning a lot of hands. Short term pattern. I made the remark to Dave at the table, the very next hand Dave shows down 910 su from the button, flop was 9 x 10x Ax - rainbow, the player who raised 3x bb from bb with AK os bet heavy, Dave called to river, his 2 pair won. A few hands later same thing with another regular who had gotten in on the debate, he flopped trip 10's, won the hand. A few hands later I had 9 10 su, flopped a flush draw, hit on turn, reraised big on river and won.

Is it because I felt confident that 910x was running hot short term or because it was and I acted on it? I saw a flop an hour later with 910x, different dealer. Flopped open ended straight draw, hit it on river, won the hand. Another player showed 910x as he folded, said it didn't work for him. A half hour later or so I got it again, saw a cheap flop, it didn't hit, folded. Seemed the short term pattern or streak for that hand had run it's course. Overall I won just over $100 with the hand in the short term I decided or recognized there was a short term pattern.

If I had continued to play this throughout the night it would have been silly, would have probably lost in the long run. However, I recognized that the short term pattern seemed to be over.

Nope. The observations you make of patterns is perfectly legitimate, but it's in the past. You are then saying you should use past observations to alter your play in the future. You cannot predict the future based on the past.

I both agree and disagree. You can not predict the future. (How sweet would that be if we could?) However, we can make educated guess's, right? If I notice a player is running bad, I will make more plays at him based on short term past events for that particular period of time, I will chase more draws against him as well. The moment it appears his premium hands start holding I stop. (Providing he is a good player, playing well, just down on his luck). I have won $$ in the long run during live play with this theory.

Same with the 9 10 example. What I am wondering, is if once in awhile, (I do not believe this is a common occurence, really I mean once in awhile) if you notice a short term pattern in texas hold em do you just recognize it or act on it?

Yes, the bet was based on this player having a good run of cards. If you do not believe Dave should have taken the bet, why? I am saying there was a short term variance, and Dave was saying it didn't matter, don't act on it for all the reasons already listed. So if he should have not taken the bet it appears to me that you are recognizing there are short term variances, patterns etc that you do not want to publicly recognize because it is foolish in the long run. In the long run it is foolish.

I am saying you don't do it in the long run, that recognizing a short term pattern is observant, not superstition.
 
GunslingerZ

GunslingerZ

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 10, 2007
Total posts
411
Chips
0
If I notice a player is running bad, I will make more plays at him based on short term past events for that particular period of time
If an opponent is more likely to play badly due to running bad, then making plays against him might work. If a good opponent doesn't let running bad affect him emotionally, then it won't work. These are examples of playing the player.

There is a HUGE difference between making plays at opponents due to their emotional status and playing more junk hands because you've seen them hit the flop lately.

You say you understand the difference between the short term and the long term. I don't think you do. You need to really analyze what Chuck and Zach have said. What you are talking about is not observation, it is gambling.
 
StormRaven

StormRaven

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 16, 2009
Total posts
2,510
Chips
0
The chance of something happening 3 times in a row is less likely than it happening once. However, once it happens twice in a row, the chance of it happening the 3rd time is the same as it happening any other one time. You are right that over a large sample, patterns will show up. This is only when you look at the large sample as a whole.

While playing poker, if you see a pattern occurring and then believe it will continue, and adjust your play to try to take advantage of it, that is based completely on superstition and would be a horrible mistake.

I agree with the first part of your post. I guess I must have a different view point of what superstition is than other people, and I am curious of this.

To me, superstition is the sports player who made 7 homeruns in 1 game, or made 5 interceptions while keeping his wife's wedding ring in his pants and decides to not change his underwear for the next game or keep the ring in his pants the next game because he thinks they are lucky. Or the person who found a penny heads up, said the chant, tucked it in their left shoe, had a good run on the slot machines and has decided he can't play slots the next night without his lucky penny.

I view what I wrote originally is observation, whether or not you choose to act on it, but is not superstition. Maybe you act on it and in the short term it works out for you. Maybe in the short term it does not. I do not believe in acting on this sort of thing in the long term.
 
B

bossbozz

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Jul 13, 2008
Total posts
1
Chips
0
Forget about looking for patterns in cards... save that for blackjack! Use your observational skills to see patterns in your opponents instead.
 
S

Shylax

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 17, 2008
Total posts
291
Chips
0
I like this post because I have seen losing players change seats with the player in the "hot" seat after the player left. I've also seen people change seats because there was a player on their left kicking their tail due to having position on them all the time and moving to said player's left.

But these guys are right, the patterns in the cards may seem real but the patterns of your fellow players are most definitely real and should be observed. A seat may get a good run of cards and I've seen it happen but it doesn't last to long so don't make decisions based on them.

As to Chelsea picking seat 9 as superstition, I generally do like to pick a certain seat at a live table but not out of superstition. I don't like to sit next to the dealer for fear of him accidently mucking my hand. I don't like to sit on the ends because I want to see the flop clearly and I don't like reaching for chips. I usually lik to sit in the seats directly across the dealer so I see the cards and suits correctly. That's neither here nor there. Thought I'd share.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Chips
0
I also appreciate the way you're looking at this and discussing it. Usually people just ignore logic and frustrate the shit out of me.

That said I'm budding out of the thread mostly because I'm lazy and because zach can articulate himself way better than I can.
 
Makwa

Makwa

Undesirable Predator
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 30, 2007
Total posts
6,080
Chips
0
As Tommy Angelo points out, these patterns and streaks are all in your mind. Just because you percieve a repeated sequence of events, you convince yourself there is a pattern that will continue, which is wrong, as pointed out above.
 
StormRaven

StormRaven

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 16, 2009
Total posts
2,510
Chips
0
If an opponent is more likely to play badly due to running bad, then making plays against him might work. If a good opponent doesn't let running bad affect him emotionally, then it won't work. These are examples of playing the player.

I agree, bad example.

You say you understand the difference between the short term and the long term. I don't think you do. You need to really analyze what Chuck and Zach have said.

I disagree, I do. Maybe I am not explaining myself well. The particular night I am speaking of was a weird fluke. To have both the seat 8 players (3 different ones) have great premium hands and hit the board and leave with a nice profit AND to have the 9 10x factor for the couple hours it happened. I play live several nights a week, I had not noticed such things happen for several months since I last observed a similar pattern that appeared to be holding. (When I sat at the table several months ago and asked "Who is hot" several players are responded that it wasn't who was hot but what was hot - Q's. Apparently they had a run for a couple of hours where 2 Q's kept hitting the board). So it had been several months since there had been what appeared to be a consistent short term pattern.

What you are talking about is not observation, it is GAMBLING.

I agree and disagree. I think it is observation. I agree to act on it then it is gambling. But I don't believe it is superstition. If the majority of others understand what I am trying to convey and believe it is superstition then I will reassess my thought process.

*I think this was the last of my 7 posts allowed for 24 hrs so I will continue to read what others have to say.
 
Egon Towst

Egon Towst

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 26, 2006
Total posts
6,794
Chips
0
The last time I walked under a ladder, I tripped over a black cat, broke my mirror and had seven years bad luck.

Good observation, no ?

:p
 
zachvac

zachvac

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 14, 2007
Total posts
7,832
Chips
0
I think the biggest thing is that you seem to be differentiating short term and long term into completely different entities. The problem is that the long term is a combination of all the short terms.

Here's my question. Say from your observation, 3's are hot (ie 3's have hit the board a lot tonight in the past). You have 33 and you raise to $12 in a 1/2 game and the opponent raises to $40, you both have $200 in play from the start of the hand. He doesn't know you see it, but you see he has aces. Obviously you know that in the long term it's bad to call because you don't have implied odds, but would you call in this spot in the short-term because you think it's likely you can hit a set and take his stack because 3's are hot?

Note that my use of short and long term are actually incorrect here, but I believe this is what you are trying to say. If you can confirm whenever you can post again that this is the kind of play you would make when your cards are hot, I can explain a bit more.
 
GunslingerZ

GunslingerZ

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 10, 2007
Total posts
411
Chips
0
I do not believe in acting on this sort of thing in the long term.
StormRaven said:
I agree to act on it then it is gambling.
So...are you saying you DON'T act on it? In your T9 example, did you play T9 only because you noticed it had been hitting lately when otherwise you would have folded it? Or did you play it the same regardless of what you had seen? Because, make no mistake about it, if you play differently due to a perceived pattern, you ARE acting on it in the long term. Even if it worked out for you that time, and the "pattern" continued.

If you didn't act differently, are you just asking what to call it when you notice something? Observation or superstition? Because that's just semantics. Although I still vote superstition. Just allowing that kind of thinking into your poker playing can only be detrimental to your play in the long term.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
Chips
0
So I ask you all, what is your view/opinion on the debate we had: *Observation or Superstition?

Fascinating insight into the mind of a fish. Thanks for sharing. :D


Seriously, if you're any good at picking up patterns, focus that ability on the actions of the other players. Finding patterns there will make you earn money. Looking for patterns in the way cards are dealt is just pointless as it has no predictive value whatsoever.
 
tpb221

tpb221

Chasing Gutshots
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 4, 2008
Total posts
2,095
Awards
1
Chips
0
StormRaven, If you see the same pattern in the cards being dealt your in a rigged game-LEAVE! If you want to observe something, observe the players. How do they bet their monsters. How do they bet the st/flush draws? How do they do it different from ep to lp. Do they 'tell' you what they have by their behavior. You will be much better off observing the players then some random seat for a pattern. If you look hard enough and want to you'll see a pattern in anything. You're being superstitious.
 
Snowmobiler

Snowmobiler

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 1, 2009
Total posts
2,644
Chips
0
I believe in riding short term trends,but I use it on the crap table.Sometimes certain numbers or Hardways get really "hot" for a short period of time and I go with the flow and stay on those numbers.I wont try to prove any point here but I have made my most money at craps when I get on a hot number and press (incremently raise) my bets, a common strategy at craps.I completely realize that it is short term fluctation,however thats all I need to make a chunk of money.When I feel the table go cold (unlucky) I stop playing.1 losing roll can be enough for me to lock in any profit and stop.
I have been on tables where a certain number can hit 15-20 times before a crap out (lose bets on table).I dont believe this # has any better chance of hitting over the long run,but I do believe in short term fluctuations.

Ok have at me non believers lol......
 
N.D.

N.D.

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 20, 2007
Total posts
930
Chips
0
StormRaven, please jump in when u get a chance and clarify for the dimwitted such as myself.

I'm confused, you said it's bad to act on the short term patterns but then you went on to explain how you should act on them. But then later you said you don't act on them.

I'm just confused. Do you limp with any 9 just cuz 9's are running hot?

BTW I'm not asking if I should. I just oversimplify everything into "risk a little to win a lot" and that's about as well as I can do with odds. Just visualize and go with it. For instance, I'll play 96s or 95s if everybody's in and cheap. But then I know I'll throw them away the rest of the time. I'm even pickier than a lot of others because I chuck all totally unconnected and unsuited cards even when everybody's in. Guess I'm just a big chicken.

But you made it sound like it wouldn't matter how many other players are in when you have any 9 or baby pair. BTW, I like the limping with baby pairs. Even a baby set can hold up nicely. So even 3's don't bother me so long as you're limping into a potentially big pot or raising from the hijack seat or button, because then you also give yourself a chance to steal the blinds...

Why does it feel like I'm preaching to the choir? It feels like at your experience level you should know this stuff already. For some reason I think you do. Must be a communication glitch or something.
 
spranger

spranger

Rock Star
Platinum Level
Joined
Oct 24, 2008
Total posts
434
Chips
0
one thing that is important to understand is that EVERYTHING in gambling happens in streaks. streaks aren't just once in a while things. for every 221 hands you are dealt, you aren't gonna get each of the 221 hand combinations, therefore some hands are coming more and some less than expected. these are streaks - and the flop, which seat is "hot" etc. all happen in streaks too.

where your problem comes in, is that you're expecting the streak to continue, but there's no way to know when a random streak ends. as soon as you decide to chase every 9 you get, there might not be a 9 hit the flop for a good hour and there could be a 4 on 2/3 of the flops.

don't try to predict random.
 
Top