re: Poker & Is it good observation or superstition?
Thank you both for responding with logical replys. I do appreciate that.
I understand the coin flip theory and am trying to understand the roulette one in the same concepts (although I don't play roulette).
I understand what I am saying sounds hipocritcal, to a degree it is and isn't. I have not applied to this theory to anything else other than live texas
hold em play. This is the only area I am applying this theory because this is the only area where I seem to have observed short term patterns that I feel comfortable acting on.
**This is based on once in awhile short term patterns, not long term. I understand the long term concepts.
I recognize that each event is an independent one of the other. The vast majority of the time, this is how I play live poker. I also know that night 910xx seemed to be winning a lot of hands. Short term pattern. I made the remark to Dave at the table, the very next hand Dave shows down 910 su from the button, flop was 9 x 10x Ax - rainbow, the player who raised 3x bb from bb with AK os bet heavy, Dave called to river, his 2 pair won. A few hands later same thing with another regular who had gotten in on the debate, he flopped trip 10's, won the hand. A few hands later I had 9 10 su, flopped a flush draw, hit on turn, reraised big on river and won.
Is it because I felt confident that 910x was running hot short term or because it was and I acted on it? I saw a flop an hour later with 910x, different dealer. Flopped open ended straight draw, hit it on river, won the hand. Another player showed 910x as he folded, said it didn't work for him. A half hour later or so I got it again, saw a cheap flop, it didn't hit, folded. Seemed the short term pattern or streak for that hand had run it's course. Overall I won just over $100 with the hand in the short term I decided or recognized there was a short term pattern.
If I had continued to play this throughout the night it would have been silly, would have probably lost in the long run. However, I recognized that the short term pattern seemed to be over.
Nope. The observations you make of patterns is perfectly legitimate, but it's in the past. You are then saying you should use past observations to alter your play in the future. You cannot predict the future based on the past.
I both agree and disagree. You can not predict the future. (How sweet would that be if we could?) However, we can make educated guess's, right? If I notice a player is running bad, I will make more plays at him based on short term past events for that particular period of time, I will chase more draws against him as well. The moment it appears his premium hands start holding I stop. (Providing he is a good player, playing well, just down on his luck). I have won $$ in the long run during live play with this theory.
Same with the 9 10 example. What I am wondering, is if once in awhile, (I do not believe this is a common occurence, really I mean once in awhile) if you notice a short term pattern in texas hold em do you just recognize it or act on it?
Yes, the bet was based on this player having a good run of cards. If you do not believe Dave should have taken the bet, why? I am saying there was a short term variance, and Dave was saying it didn't matter, don't act on it for all the reasons already listed. So if he should have not taken the bet it appears to me that you are recognizing there are short term variances, patterns etc that you do not want to publicly recognize because it is foolish in the long run. In the long run it is foolish.
I am saying you don't do it in the long run, that recognizing a short term pattern is observant, not superstition.