How can you be sure you are or aren't changing your game because of a losing streak?
So been a rough month+ on the tables. I'm sitting down trying to analyze my play and figure out where i'm going wrong if indeed I am at all or if variance is simply kicking my ass right now.
I keep having to remind myself I'm still up a good bit from when I started, but i've been bleeding cash pretty steadily for awhile now. It also doesn't help that I think I'm putting a bit of pressure on myself to win because I could use the money, and I realize that isn't a smart thing to do. I don't absolutely have to have it but extra $$$ is always nice to have .
I think I've identified a few SnG's where I made a call I probably shouldn't have, and all of these were on the tail end of a really bad day (IE one where I shoulda taken a break or just outright stopped before I sat down at those tables). This only accounts for a handful (like maybe 4 or so tables). I've been much better than I used to be about controlling emotions on a downswing cause I know they happen and if you can't deal with them you shouldn't play seriously.
According to my tracked stats, over the last 5 weeks I have a really really bad % of wins in "coin-flip" type situations. as in i've been losing 76% of them. I've been trying to analyze if I shouldn't have been in those coin flips to start with but alot of them I was short stacked and being the aggressor at the time (ie been getting called alot with people with marginal hands) or I was calling a short stacked all in. Had quite a few tables where I would lose 3 or more hands to shorter stacks going all in when it was something like their 55 vs my AK, etc. I very very rarely raise or semi-bluff with nothing, I always like to have a hand that stands a chance if i do get called (and no i'm not forcing it all in every time either, unless my stack is only a few BBs).
I'm having to remind myself I'm still up on bodog (still roughly triple my initial deposit) but I was at about 6 times my initial deposit at one point. Anyway...what's the best way to tell if you are making plays you shouldn't be because of pressure to win or slight tilting?
Thinking about taking at least a week or two away from the tables and reading a book or two. I still haven't read Harrington, and the first two volumes just got here from amazon, so that should keep me busy for a bit.
I know I'm sort of rambling, but anyone have advice? Just general advice is nice, but my main question here is advice for honestly evaluating yourself. My best analysis is that I probably cost myself a couple of tables, but overall have been consistent to my game and just been getting killed by variance. But I'm not 100% sure I trust my own analysis if you know what i mean. I feel like I have alot of potential at this but I still have alot to learn. Having a BS in mathematics and a masters in operations research I pick up the stats pretty easy, it's the emotional part of the game that's the hardest for me i think.