re: Poker & How random is a RNG?
Originally Posted by DaFrench1
tell me if this analysis of my last 100 hands on stars seems correctly distributed to you to be random.
Rule #1 of randomness, random numbers do not look random. If you don't see runs and patterns, it was probably developed by a person trying to make it look random.
Definition of random from HS stat teacher: unpredictable in the short run, predictable in the long run. 100 hands = short run
Out of my 20,212 hands
AA - 93, expected = (4/52)(3/51)(20212) = 91.457
AKs - 76, expected = (8/52)(1/51)(20212) = 60.97
oh wow, the computer must have chosen me to win all those tourneys and given me AKs, how special I must be
But in reality, you'll see abnormalities no matter how high you go. The more hands though, the less likely you'll see abnormalities, but if you just had an amazing hot run, the computer doesn't see that and automatically give you a cold run to balance it sometime in the future. The only way to get the exact values is to play an infinite number of hands. Even so, I'm surprised the amount of times I got AKs is that far off from the expected after 20k+ hands, I did do that calculation correctly, right? First card can be any A or K, other one HAS to be A or K that's not the same card as the first one yet is the same suit (so if you pick up the A of spades, second card MUST be the K of spades to make AKs)