How do you play your streaks?

nc_royals

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How do you play your streaks?

I think we would all admit that streaks happen in poker. Be them good or bad. In baseball we cant always expain the rally's or the slumps. Just the same in Basketball when a shooter gets hot or not.

My question is this when you realize youre in a downswing... Do you change your games and move down in levels or do you continue to grind it out at the stakes you are.

For Example... I was running good in early February and then hit a bad streak at the Multi-table Sit-n-gos later in the month. I dropped over $50 at the $4.40 buy-ins and after that just got away from that game and moved down to the $1.10 buy-ins. Rode another week of running bad before I turned it around. My thinking is this.. I figure I saved myself at least another $50 or more by moving down in stakes. My bankroll did not require me to move down but my opinion is streaks are going to happen and you need to ride them... Both ways.

What do you think?
 
WVHillbilly

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Variance exists but thinking you know when it's coming or doing anything based on that anticipation is flawed thinking. It's just as costly as calling without the right odds because you have a feeling about what's coming.

In other words it's silly superstitious thinking and it has no place in a good players mindset.
 
dwolfg

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WVHillbilly said:
Variance exists but thinking you know when it's coming or doing anything based on that anticipation is flawed thinking. It's just as costly as calling without the right odds because you have a feeling about what's coming.

In other words it's silly superstitious thinking and it has no place in a good players mindset.
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But the idea that streaks and running hot/cold exist and out there. A good player can use the perception of a hot/cold streak to cause his/her opponents to make mistakes because of the perceived streak.
 
WVHillbilly

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Yeah, it's easy to trick idiots into playing badly because "clubs are hot tonight" but we should not be aspiring to be idiots ourselves.
 
nc_royals

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WVHillbilly said:
Yeah, it's easy to trick idiots into playing badly because "clubs are hot tonight" but we should not be aspiring to be idiots ourselves.
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"Clubs are hot tonight"? That's what you think Im talking about? Look at your own stats. Could your downswings been less costly if you would of recognized youre in a downswing and played at a lesser buy in?
 
WVHillbilly

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Clubs are hot tonight = Recognizing when you're in a downswing.

Your previous results have NO bearing on your future results (unless you're tilting in which case you should stop playing).

Just because you lost 2 AI with AA in a row doesn't mean you're going to either win OR lose the next time. The cards have no memory and you can't know when or how variance will effect you. You can only play the current hand as well as possible. Thinking anything else is foolish.
 
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When your on a hot streak, maybe stay at your limit and keep playing it. When you start running bad, drop down into you come back up or just stop playing depending on how you have already lost.
 
dwolfg

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WVHillbilly said:
Yeah, it's easy to trick idiots into playing badly because "clubs are hot tonight" but we should not be aspiring to be idiots ourselves.
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It's not being an idiot if you can get your opponent's to fold better hands because it appears you are on a hot streak, or call with worse hands because it looks like you are tilting. That is playing your image and playing your opponents weaknesses.
 
WVHillbilly

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No it's only being an idiot if you believe in these streaks yourself.
 
dwolfg

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Well there are stretches of times, in both directions where variance goes either very good for any given player or very bad for any given player. I do see and agree with your point about adjusting play solely for and because of variance swings.
 
nc_royals

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I dont think Me and Dwolfg are argueing the same point. He's talking about from one hand to another and Im speaking of a range of maybe as much as 100 sit-n gos.

Hillbilly's second sentence in his own website says "I ran bad for a bit".... That's my exact point. We all go thru it and when I recognize that Im in it over a long haul of games then Im moving down in my stakes until I pull out of it.

No reason to be called an idiot because I disagree with you Hillbilly. It seems like the veterans at CC have less and less patience for anyone new or anyone who doesnt agree with them.
 
rssurfer54

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nc_royals said:
No reason to be called an idiot because I disagree with you Hillbilly. It seems like the veterans at CC have less and less patience for anyone new or anyone who doesnt agree with them.
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It's not up for agreement is his point. If you lose 100 sngs in a row, but it does not mean affect your ability to win the next one (without tilt). That's his point. You have a certain chance to win a hand/sng/tourney/ whatever/ and you can only view "running bad" in terms of prior hands, not the hands that are coming in the future.

Like if you lose 100 sngs in a row, you ran bad (probably). But you can never be presently(!) running bad, since the cards have no idea if you just won 100 sngs or lost 100 sngs. You ran bad, you ran good, but when you are playing a hand you are not running anything.
 
WVHillbilly

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nc_royals said:
I dont think Me and Dwolfg are argueing the same point. He's talking about from one hand to another and Im speaking of a range of maybe as much as 100 sit-n gos.

Hillbilly's second sentence in his own website says "I ran bad for a bit".... That's my exact point. We all go thru it and when I recognize that Im in it over a long haul of games then Im moving down in my stakes until I pull out of it.

No reason to be called an idiot because I disagree with you Hillbilly. It seems like the veterans at CC have less and less patience for anyone new or anyone who doesnt agree with them.
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Notice that it's in the past tense. As in there is no way of knowing what the next hand will hold. There is no running bad, only ran bad. HUGE difference. And I only called you an idiot if you think you can predict variance. You don't really believe that do you?
 
nc_royals

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Im Going to drop it. We will agree to disagree. Obviously you cant predict variance but I can sure recognize when Im in the middle of it and will choose to grind at a lighter price and when it turns around I will return to my normal bankroll games. It's a choice not exactly a right and wrong answer.
 
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Haha what that makes no sense, so you can't predict future variance, but if you're running bad you'll move down til that downswing ends? I mean if your roll means you have to move down, fine, if you're playing bad, fine, but if not then it makes no sense
 
WVHillbilly

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There is no middle of it, that's just it. You can never know what's coming next. Now if you're talking about recognizing when you're tilting and you shouldn't be playing? Great. I'm all for it. Otherwise. Sorry it doesn't exist.

Also you've been a member here longer than me so the "picking on the new guy" stuff really doesn't fly.
 
Kenzie 96

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nc_royals said:
How do you play your streaks?

I think we would all admit that streaks happen in poker. Be them good or bad. In baseball we cant always expain the rally's or the slumps. Just the same in Basketball when a shooter gets hot or not.

My question is this when you realize youre in a downswing... Do you change your games and move down in levels or do you continue to grind it out at the stakes you are.

For Example... I was running good in early February and then hit a bad streak at the Multi-table Sit-n-gos later in the month. I dropped over $50 at the $4.40 buy-ins and after that just got away from that game and moved down to the $1.10 buy-ins. Rode another week of running bad before I turned it around. My thinking is this.. I figure I saved myself at least another $50 or more by moving down in stakes. My Bankroll did not require me to move down but my opinion is streaks are going to happen and you need to ride them... Both ways.

What do you think?
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You factoring in the much lower ROI when you do cash? Much better IMO to focus on continuing to play solid poker.
 
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nc_royals said:
Im Going to drop it. We will agree to disagree. Obviously you cant predict variance but I can sure recognize when Im in the middle of it and will choose to grind at a lighter price and when it turns around I will return to my normal bankroll games. It's a choice not exactly a right and wrong answer.
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If you flip a coin five times and it comes out heads all five times does that the sixth time should be heads? That is essentially what your saying but really it has just as good a chance as being heads as it does tails the past trials don't affect the odds of what is going to happen.
 
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WVHillbilly said:
There is no middle of it, that's just it. You can never know what's coming next. Now if you're talking about recognizing when you're tilting and you shouldn't be playing? Great. I'm all for it. Otherwise. Sorry it doesn't exist.

.
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Yah that caught me right away too....'the middle of it'.. when there is no 'middle of it' because by suggesting you're in 'the middle of it', you are predicting the future events.
As soon as I saw the title of this thread it got me heading right for it.... because I don't believe in streaks.. rushes.. etc.

Today I played ~dozen MTTs & I'd say I've been runnin' bad. I'm not 'running' bad... I've 'been' running bad.

As far as player's suggestion to 'take time off' when you're 'running bad'. What are they expecting from the time off? (unless it's to play w/o tilt) because nothing is going to change in the 'time off' (actually if anything my game is a bit off once i've taken time off). I much prefer to persevere & work through it, all the while continuing to work on the emotional & mental aspects of my game (as it is good oppurtunity to grow as a player).
 
TopJimmy99

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Even at the micro level's I play I hit streaks... mostly in rush haha. I worked my bankroll up mostly from freerolls, but rather recently I played a decent amount of rush. I was playing .02/.05 and my first real session lasted probably 10 hours. I bought in with $5 and turned it into around $15 in about a couple hours or so. After that it slowly kept growing up to about $30+ at one point.

Needless to say, that after a few more days I went on a cold streak and lost most of what I had won. Now I assume you meant a little longer term than my example there, but I adjusted my play back to freerolls once I lost my winnings. So I definitely change my stakes based on if I'm hot or cold (because a bankroll as small as mine is easily affected by streaks), because why waste a hot streak and why while on tilt?
 
Theblueduce

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I just take time off when its running bad for me. I do other things within the poker world...read-study-etc.
 
pfb8888

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if the losing streaks affect how you play ...then maybe you should move down .....

BUT...would/should you also move down when you run super good and deviate from you're normal play?
 
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