Gretzky...what are the odds?

KingNothing4

KingNothing4

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 12, 2007
Total posts
382
Chips
0
So I'm playing a S'n'G and catch 99 in the hole, 1 guy all-in for minimal raise, call, and i call. i catch a 9 on the flop and raise that pushes out the other guy and the all-in dude catches straight w/e...next hand i get 99 in the hole again, catch a 9 on the flop and have the same guy against me and get him all-in on the river but beat his straight with a full boat this time :)
What are the odds of catching the same two hole cards (even the suits were the same), two hands in a row, hitting the set on the flop with the same card (suit wise) ?
 
SAH89

SAH89

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 15, 2008
Total posts
330
Chips
0
Had a similar thing happen to me with 66 a few weeks ago, all same suit and everything but I caught it twice in between 5 hands and had 66 three times between 15 hands
 
Lo-Dog

Lo-Dog

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 11, 2006
Total posts
2,240
Chips
0
1 billion to 1

(I rounded up; by how much, is for you to decide)
 
KingNothing4

KingNothing4

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 12, 2007
Total posts
382
Chips
0
haha 1,000,000,000 : 1 is that for real? that's pretty nutz, but 2 hands in a row is quite a stretch
 
KingNothing4

KingNothing4

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 12, 2007
Total posts
382
Chips
0
haha i was going to say woooow where u get this from? but neeeevermind
 
S

switch0723

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 2, 2007
Total posts
8,430
Chips
0
I put 5 cents up to any takers that zach is the first to reply to this with the answer
 
G

greener_lax

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 19, 2008
Total posts
163
Chips
0
well, aside from suits it would be 220 1 of getting dealt the same hand twice in a row. but specific two hands would be 48400 to 1. hitting a set would be 7.5 to 1. so i believe its 12375 to 1 of getting dealt the same hand twice in a row and hitting a set with each. im not exactly sure, it could be 1650 to 1 but i think you multiply by 7.5 twice. i could be off on this, but this is how i remember it. you never really have to do these calculations while playing poker. at least, it's not going to effect how well you play.
 
S

switch0723

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 2, 2007
Total posts
8,430
Chips
0
^^^ I dont think thats right if im honest, once in every 12k hands seems to often in my opinion. I dont think ive ever been dealt the same pp twice in a row, never mind hitting sets with both, and ive played more than 12k hands
 
jewboy07

jewboy07

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 4, 2008
Total posts
868
Chips
0
i would take that 5 cent bet but we all know Zach is gonna come rushin in with some crazy math that we cant comprehend anytime now :D
 
G

greener_lax

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 19, 2008
Total posts
163
Chips
0
^^^ I dont think thats right if im honest, once in every 12k hands seems to often in my opinion. I dont think ive ever been dealt the same pp twice in a row, never mind hitting sets with both, and ive played more than 12k hands

it's going to be alot higher if your talking about 2 specific hands. like if you say whats the odds of me getting pocket 9's twice in a row on the next two hands then its going to be alot higher. the odds of being dealt 2 specific hands in a row are 1 in 48400. but the odds of getting dealt the same hand twice in a row is 220 to 1. as for the exact same suits, im not sure, but it doesn't matter either.
 
riffpoker

riffpoker

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
May 21, 2007
Total posts
233
Chips
0
After utilizing my abacus and probability text from high school I came up with this. PRETTY DAMN HIGH!!!
 
aliengenius

aliengenius

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 7, 2006
Total posts
4,596
Chips
0
odds of this happening: "who cares?"

Seriously, waste your energy on something productive...
 
zachvac

zachvac

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 14, 2007
Total posts
7,832
Chips
0
i would take that 5 cent bet but we all know Zach is gonna come rushin in with some crazy math that we cant comprehend anytime now :D

lol it's not that crazy.

Odds of pocket pair 1st hand = 3/51 = 0.0588 (no matter what 1st card is, 3 out of the remaining 51 will make a pair)

Odds of set = 1-(48/50)(47/49)(46/48) = 0.117 (the opposite of the odds of missing the set on all 3 cards)

Odds of getting the same cards again same suits (without order mattering) = (2/52)(1/51) = 0.075% = 0.00075


odds of setting with the same card = 1-(49/50)(48/49)(47/48) = 0.06

Odds of them all happening = 0.0588*0.117*0.00075*0.06 = .000031% = 1 in 3,230,162.

But then again this makes no difference. Sure it's unlikely, but so is me being dealt A5o, JJ, 38h, 98o, KK, A8o, 22, 23o, 8Td all in a row. In fact I'd bet that sequence is less likely than your hand.

Anyway the only thing remotely complicated in the math I did was the fact that 1-any probability is the probability of it not happening. Everything else is pretty basic probability, so I don't know what y'all are talking about me doing insane complicated math.

Now I'm currently taking an upper level college course in probability. That DOES have insane math including integrals, infinite sums, etc. in probability. All I'm using is arithmetic.
 
KingNothing4

KingNothing4

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 12, 2007
Total posts
382
Chips
0
haha sorry everyone i didn't mean to figure it out literally when i first posted, but when people actually started doing the math i thought it would be very interesting to see. if you dont care to see then dont waste your time reading the post.
 
KingNothing4

KingNothing4

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 12, 2007
Total posts
382
Chips
0
o and thanks zachvac for coming up with an answer! thats some good stuff you know how to do it
 
G

greener_lax

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 19, 2008
Total posts
163
Chips
0
when u say getting dealt a pocket pair is 3/51, isn't it 220 to 1 of being dealt a specific pocket pair? like they say the odds of getting dealt aces are 220 to 1
 
Chris_TC

Chris_TC

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 11, 2007
Total posts
925
Chips
0
when u say getting dealt a pocket pair is 3/51, isn't it 220 to 1 of being dealt a specific pocket pair? like they say the odds of getting dealt aces are 220 to 1
The math is different for a specific pocket pair. You'd have to calculate:
4/52 x 3/51 = 0.0769 x 0.0588 = 0.0045 = 0.45% or 222:1
 
S

switch0723

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 2, 2007
Total posts
8,430
Chips
0
dammit zach, you were too quick for anyone to take up my bet
 
zachvac

zachvac

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 14, 2007
Total posts
7,832
Chips
0
when u say getting dealt a pocket pair is 3/51, isn't it 220 to 1 of being dealt a specific pocket pair? like they say the odds of getting dealt aces are 220 to 1

But as mentioned, the weird part wasn't that it was 9s specifically. Like I said it's extremely strange to see any sequence of cards that you'll see (just list your last 10 hands. Odds of those happening in a row are probably worse than the 9s setting twice with the same card). So the first one was the odds of any pocket pair. First card can be any of 52, but second has to be one of the 3 left to match the first out of 51 cards left. The SECOND time however, I did restrict it to being 9s, in fact the same 2 9s. The main point though is that if this had happened with 5s he'd have been just as surprised.
 
MDTed

MDTed

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 6, 2008
Total posts
1,417
Awards
1
Chips
0
Thanks, now I have a headache.

Where were you when I needed my x of 30 question array odds question answered?
 
Poker Odds - Pot & Implied Odds - Odds Calculator
Top