This is a discussion on Gretzky...what are the odds? within the online poker forums, in the General Poker section; So I'm playing a S'n'G and catch 99 in the hole, 1 guy allin for minimal raise, call, and i call. i catch a 9 


#1




Gretzky...what are the odds?
So I'm playing a S'n'G and catch 99 in the hole, 1 guy allin for minimal raise, call, and i call. i catch a 9 on the flop and raise that pushes out the other guy and the allin dude catches straight w/e...next hand i get 99 in the hole again, catch a 9 on the flop and have the same guy against me and get him allin on the river but beat his straight with a full boat this time
What are the odds of catching the same two hole cards (even the suits were the same), two hands in a row, hitting the set on the flop with the same card (suit wise) ? 
#8




well, aside from suits it would be 220 1 of getting dealt the same hand twice in a row. but specific two hands would be 48400 to 1. hitting a set would be 7.5 to 1. so i believe its 12375 to 1 of getting dealt the same hand twice in a row and hitting a set with each. im not exactly sure, it could be 1650 to 1 but i think you multiply by 7.5 twice. i could be off on this, but this is how i remember it. you never really have to do these calculations while playing poker. at least, it's not going to effect how well you play.

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#16




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Odds of pocket pair 1st hand = 3/51 = 0.0588 (no matter what 1st card is, 3 out of the remaining 51 will make a pair) Odds of set = 1(48/50)(47/49)(46/48) = 0.117 (the opposite of the odds of missing the set on all 3 cards) Odds of getting the same cards again same suits (without order mattering) = (2/52)(1/51) = 0.075% = 0.00075 odds of setting with the same card = 1(49/50)(48/49)(47/48) = 0.06 Odds of them all happening = 0.0588*0.117*0.00075*0.06 = .000031% = 1 in 3,230,162. But then again this makes no difference. Sure it's unlikely, but so is me being dealt A5o, JJ, 38h, 98o, KK, A8o, 22, 23o, 8Td all in a row. In fact I'd bet that sequence is less likely than your hand. Anyway the only thing remotely complicated in the math I did was the fact that 1any probability is the probability of it not happening. Everything else is pretty basic probability, so I don't know what y'all are talking about me doing insane complicated math. Now I'm currently taking an upper level college course in probability. That DOES have insane math including integrals, infinite sums, etc. in probability. All I'm using is arithmetic. 
#17




haha sorry everyone i didn't mean to figure it out literally when i first posted, but when people actually started doing the math i thought it would be very interesting to see. if you dont care to see then dont waste your time reading the post.

#20




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4/52 x 3/51 = 0.0769 x 0.0588 = 0.0045 = 0.45% or 222:1 
#22




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