Originally Posted by TheRinser
Feel lik ethis every day. Always at the begining of a tourney, theres one or two guys a'ALL-IN' every hand preflop. And you know you want to call them when its right, You pick up KK or AK and call straight away and they either hit that rag A or flop a set or the runner runner straight. I Think i play good poker, i take some chances sometimes but on the whole i think i make reads and id say 75% i make the right call....However my cards hold about 20% so its not my call thats killing me its the suck outs. Makes you wonder...How do you play poker? lol
Now seriously guys!!! I don't get it. This is rather basic poker theory.
The donkey calls your all in (or you call his) and he hits his top pair with ace rag while you're holding KK!!! You should be over the moon!! That's what every good poker player hopes for!!
Think about it. The donkey will beat you roughly 25% of the time or 1 in 4 times in that same spot. So imagine each all in is say 100 units:
You win your 1st: You +100 Donkey -100
You win the 2nd: You +200 donkey -200
Donkey wins the 3rd: You +100 donkey -100
You win the 4th: You +200 donkey -200
Now who would you rather be? The player up 200 units who had to suffer a bad beat? Or the Donkey on -200 units who managed to crack a pair of kings!!!
The problem is that players simply cannot accept that every hand is beatable. They expect AA to win every times head up whereas in fact it has to lose about 15% of the time.
But hey if you double up with more than 50% chance of winning, you are playing a favourable game.
Now donkeys are almost always behind meaning they have inbetween 25% and 40% chance of winning. They can only double up at the max. They are therefore playing an unfavourable game. It's what I like to call a "long term losing posture" where posture represents a series of losing positions and bad decisions.
Bad beats are hard to take but they are the necessary evil that's needed to be a winning player.
Don't be aggrieved by the bad beats!! Thinks about it. If you get bad beats, it's a good sign. It means you most often have the best hand going into a showdown (the sign of a good player). In other words you are likely to be on the 60%-75% side of things rather than 25%-40%! This is what long term profitability is.
So if I'm holding KK, I want the donkey to call as often as possible.
Just a side note. I'm a winning poker player but I am under no illusion as to my real ability. I'm no phil Ivey. The reason why I am a winning players is because there are donkeys out there who will call my KK with ace rag!!
So I'm all up for it!!