Freeroll Wars: No Foldem Holdem: AA odds

eetenor

eetenor

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Learning to use a poker odds calculator is a must, especially in Free rolls. There are many free calculators and if you reflect on your hands and want to plan for your next
FreeRoll War, using one helps you see the game correctly.

We often treat AA as the ultimate hand. In many cases we should.
We make large raises even larger three bets and will often shove all in with it.

Here is something to think about:

You have AA in a freeroll and go all in PreFlop and you are called in 3 spots.

:as4: :ad4: vs :kh4: :qc4: vs :4d4: :3d4: vs :10s4: :8s4:

What is your equity at this moment?

48.6%

What does it mean? Is there a better strategy with AA in freerolls?
Do we really want to put our entire stack in preflop?
By experimenting with a poker odds calculator you may find a spot with greater equity after the flop.

Keep Grinding:D
 
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bellicoso

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Odds are great if you can put everyone in on their respective hands, but in fact, I find aces are only really strong when you're heads up. You start adding to the number of players that go in pre-flop and things seem to get nasty real quick. Any two cards can bust your aces; this is true, but it seems worse when there are more players are involved. These days I tend to play my pocket pairs carefully, especially in freerolls.
 
eetenor

eetenor

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Good point: lets go deeper

Yes I do:) I have a 48.6% chance of quadrupling my stack :top: Odds are everything.


Consider this: what if you won 3x your stack 70% after the flop. But lost your stack only 10% of the time.
Assuming 10 occurrences

4 stacks x5 =20- 5 = 15

3 stacks x7 =21-1 =20

3 stacks x6 =18-1 =17

2 stacks x8 =16-1 =15

Of course this math is just a rough estimate but it makes one think.

Taking a coin flip is in essence removing all skill.

Survival in tournaments has value.
:)
Thanks for your post please share again.
 
Tamik228

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Learning to use a Poker odds calculator is a must, especially in Free rolls. There are many free calculators and if you reflect on your hands and want to plan for your next
FreeRoll War, using one helps you see the game correctly.

We often treat AA as the ultimate hand. In many cases we should.
We make large raises even larger three bets and will often shove all in with it.

Here is something to think about:

You have AA in a freeroll and go all in PreFlop and you are called in 3 spots.

:as4: :ad4: vs :kh4: :qc4: vs :4d4: :3d4: vs :10s4: :8s4:

What is your Equity at this moment?

48.6%

What does it mean? Is there a better strategy with AA in FreeRolls?
Do we really want to put our entire stack in preflop?
By experimenting with a Poker odds calculator you may find a spot with greater equity after the flop.

Keep Grinding:D
Yes, you have to go to the bank, you have a good advantage. You can be moved on the table, but you should not give up and be upset, always go forward and everything will be fine with you.:icon_thum
 
eetenor

eetenor

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Banking Tournament Chips

Yes, you have to go to the bank, you have a good advantage. You can be moved on the table, but you should not give up and be upset, always go forward and everything will be fine with you.:icon_thum


Thank you for your post.

Your use of the phrase go to the bank caused me to really think about this situation. In a cash game you can bank the win but you cannot bank the win in a tournament you must continue playing.

For further consideration I offer the following real world situation.

ACR on demand free roll: 500+ entrants starting stack of 1500

The very first hand we are faced with the AA all in pre 50% equity vs 3 opponents opportunity.

Winning means we now have 6000 in chips 500+ players still in the field.

Consider this possible scenario.

We know are skill enables us to cash in 1 of 10 tournaments.

We get all in with the aces.
We now have 6K in chips or are out of the tournament

Out of ten tournaments we continue on in only 50% of 10 =5

We now have 5 tournaments to succeed in but our skill level has not changed it is still 1-10
Does the 6K in chips increase our odds of cashing to 1-5 or better?

Thanks again for posting.
I hope you enjoy my out of the box thinking:alien:
 
eetenor

eetenor

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It can get nasty

Odds are great if you can put everyone in on their respective hands, but in fact, I find aces are only really strong when you're heads up. You start adding to the number of players that go in pre-flop and things seem to get nasty real quick. Any two cards can bust your aces; this is true, but it seems worse when there are more players are involved. These days I tend to play my pocket pairs carefully, especially in freerolls.


What you are saying is very true. Watching Stones Live Poker on twitch one night I noticed that the real world equity, Stones Live accounts for any shown dead cards that is why it is real world equity not just an estimate, AA had vs 4 players was 33%. It was not an all in pot PRE as it was AA raise 4 callers.

Try to use skill to navigate the flop turn and river in that situation:eek:

Thanks for posting
 
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Brayan9052

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The odds fall the more players are in the game.
 
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c0rnBr34d

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Interesting discussion. Sorry to arrive so late. I understand your concerns here but I tend to disagree. In your example case the chance of you seeing a flop and still getting one or two of the stacks in and winning as a larger favorite are WAY lower. So while you're very correct in pointing out that just shoving pre will increase variance and send out out of the tournament early more often than we like, I think you're also under estimating the 6k chip advantage early in the tournament. If we are using our stack to our advantage we can now open larger and wider in position and put tons of pressure on the smaller stacks. If we are just going to continue to wait for super premium hands as the blinds and antes go up then perhaps you are correct and it may not be worth the risk. This could also save us from busting out later when someone jams all in on a flush draw when we hold the nuts and they get there. Think about it this way. If we are multi tabling 10 tournaments at the same time and this spot comes up in all 10 games and we know we will get exactly 3 callers do we still not jam? What if it's mid tournament? What if it's near the bubble? What if it's the final table? In my opinion the answers are all the same. A chance to quadruple up nearly 50% of the time is too sweet to pass up. If we are just playing to make the money then I can understand the desire to keep from busting out, I still disagree but in the heat of the moment maybe I take the safer route. If we are playing to win. We should want to take this spot every time it comes up, cash or tournament.
 
eetenor

eetenor

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Great points

Interesting discussion. Sorry to arrive so late. I understand your concerns here but I tend to disagree. In your example case the chance of you seeing a flop and still getting one or two of the stacks in and winning as a larger favorite are WAY lower. So while you're very correct in pointing out that just shoving pre will increase variance and send out out of the tournament early more often than we like, I think you're also under estimating the 6k chip advantage early in the tournament. If we are using our stack to our advantage we can now open larger and wider in position and put tons of pressure on the smaller stacks. If we are just going to continue to wait for super premium hands as the blinds and antes go up then perhaps you are correct and it may not be worth the risk. This could also save us from busting out later when someone jams all in on a flush draw when we hold the nuts and they get there. Think about it this way. If we are multi tabling 10 tournaments at the same time and this spot comes up in all 10 games and we know we will get exactly 3 callers do we still not jam? What if it's mid tournament? What if it's near the bubble? What if it's the final table? In my opinion the answers are all the same. A chance to quadruple up nearly 50% of the time is too sweet to pass up. If we are just playing to make the money then I can understand the desire to keep from busting out, I still disagree but in the heat of the moment maybe I take the safer route. If we are playing to win. We should want to take this spot every time it comes up, cash or tournament.


Thank you for responding.

Your responses are excellent, it is the reason I asked questions and did not make statements.

I did not include reference to other stages of the free roll hoping someone else might notice that while possibly a good idea early not shoving the AA late would be detrimental. Also late you are less likely to get 3 callers thus increasing your equity and making my point mute. The shove then becomes even more powerful and is worth while even if you then get 3 callers.

You mentioned pressuring stacks with the 6k. I was referring to a free roll where multiple players call all in with wide ranges.There is no pressuring stacks at that early stage. Then if we cannot get folds and do not win any more hands very soon the 6k will be an average stack and not give us an advantage. When the stack advantage is wiped out as quickly as it can be we are back to being 700 players deep and playing in only 5 tournaments with a 1-10 skill advantage.

The main reason I wrote this article was to point out that AA equity changes dramatically vs more villains as new players should be aware. I had noticed that they felt AA should win more often even vs more villains. Few new players use equity calculators.

The rest is abstract thinking and for consideration only under these exact circumstances. You seem to be referring to 10 cash tournaments, my example is only early stages deep field nofoldem free rolls.
Reducing variance by seeing flops in free rolls is a distinct advantage as the players will often give you stacks drawing dead or near dead after the flop.

Thank you for contributing. Your points about stack advantages in real money tournaments is quite good.


:):)
 
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Dertyp22

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pockets always feels nice and I often tend to raise far to much pre flop
thanks for illustration
 
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