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ballerboy2001

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if you have 4 suited cards after the flop you have a 38 percent chance of hitting it on the turn or river.

my tip of the day
 
Bill_Hollorian

Bill_Hollorian

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How do you arrive at 38%

Thanks

Bill
 
jeterkid925

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Well I always heard 1 in 3

10 player table, 20 cards dealt, 3 on the flop, 1 burn. 24 cards in use, 28 cards left,

2 more cards to come, you need one to be the suit you need, which is like1 in 3, I got 35%.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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If you have a 4-flush you need one of 9 cards out of 47 possible cards left left to complete.

(9/47)*2 (for turn and river) = 0.383 =~38%

If you include the possibility of 2 consecutive flush cards though, it's (9/47)*2 + ((9/47)*(8/46)) = 0.416 =~42%

I think, anyway.
 
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chicubs1616

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Jeterkid your math is way off.

When calcualting pot odds to hit a draw such as an open-ended straight draw (8 cards that help you) or a flush draw (9 cards that help you) you take that number over the total number of unseen cards, not the # of cards left in the deck to be dealt.

So to hit an open-ended straight draw on the NEXT card you take 8/47 which is 17%.

To hit a flush on the next card it is 9/47 or 19%.

If you are calculating odds on hitting a flush on the next two cards (after the flop) you take the odds of hitting on both cards individually: 9/47 and 9/46 and add them together.

9/47 = .1914893 9/46 = .1956521 added together they equal ~ .387 or 38.7%

Dorkus...to calucate running flush cards for example you take:

9/47 multiply in 8/46 (.191489 x .1739130) = .033 or ~ 3.3%, so for those of you who chase running flushes, you will only hit them around 3-4 times out of 100.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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Yeah, I knew I'd done something wrong, forgot to factor in that there's one less card after the turn in the first calculathingywhatsit. Still, I wasn't far off... >_>

Leave me be - I've had a few drinks. :)
 
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Bill_Hollorian

Bill_Hollorian

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approach determine how many ways you don't make a flush.
9 cards of 47 make a flush. therfor 38/47 do NOT. 37/46 for the river.

38/47*37/46 = 1406/2162 = 65%
100-65 = 35%

Bill
 
jeterkid925

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chicubs1616 said:
Jeterkid your math is way off.

When calcualting pot odds to hit a draw such as an open-ended straight draw (8 cards that help you) or a flush draw (9 cards that help you) you take that number over the total number of unseen cards, not the # of cards left in the deck to be dealt.

So to hit an open-ended straight draw on the NEXT card you take 8/47 which is 17%.

To hit a flush on the next card it is 9/47 or 19%.

If you are calculating odds on hitting a flush on the next two cards (after the flop) you take the odds of hitting on both cards individually: 9/47 and 9/46 and add them together.

9/47 = .1914893 9/46 = .1956521 added together they equal ~ .387 or 38.7%

Dorkus...to calucate running flush cards for example you take:

9/47 multiply in 8/46 (.191489 x .1739130) = .033 or ~ 3.3%, so for those of you who chase running flushes, you will only hit them around 3-4 times out of 100.
I tried, I knew it was 1 in 3, I just used a cell caculator and I'm sure I typed something in wrong!
 
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