Face the Ace: Could the amateurs have the advantage
I've been thinking about this all day. I think a talanted amatuer, who got through all that qualifying, and who regularly watches Poker After Dark, should be a favorite over those pros. Mainly because he's seen hours and hours of them playing on TV, and they don't know squat about him. But also because the amateur has to be hard to get any tells
from. The amateur is going to be scared and nervous just from being in that situation, and that's the only read you can get from him. All-in with AK or AA or 68, he's going to be just as scared just to be on TV playing for all that money. Plus, the pros playing for charity, are likely to not be playing at the same level as if they had money on the line.
I will admit, that if a guy is going for a third win, and the pros have seen him play twice - and the initial nervousness of the situation has died down - maybe the pros would be at an advantage. But I really think that in the first match, the amateur should be a significant favorite to win; and a slight favorite in the second match.
I think, if they used low-level pros, who you don't see on TV, the pros would cream the amateurs. But, as long as it's the big-name FTilt pros who we see all the time, the amateurs are going to get the best of it.
From a promotional standpoint, FTilt and pro players probably stand to gain more, the better the amateurs do. If the amateurs do well on TV, that advertises the idea that talented amateurs can win on FTilt or in Vegas; and increases the money to be made by FTilt as a site, and pro players in general. It's not as if it costs FTilt $1 million if the amateur wins and gets paid, because they have sold alot of the advertising to recoup some of that, and they are getting more play on the site from advertising in Prime Time. I'm not going to say that the pros are motivated to roll over and throw the matches, because that's more profitable in the long run - but I will say that has to be a possibility to consider. I'm curious to know if there is a Vegas line on these matches. If there is not, that might be an indicator that the pros are not really trying to win.