Expectation For All Game Types?

Hey guys, it is common knowledge that an average win rate for cash games is one BB / an hour, preferably 5 big blinds per actual hour (including multi tabling)

But what about STT at the $10+1 and $16+1 levels FOUR tabling

Also what about MTT with buy ins of $10-$40 Single tabling?

Any suggestions or thoughts welcomed

ColdDeckCity said:

Hey guys, it is common knowledge that an average win rate for cash games is one BB / an hour, preferably 5 big blinds per actual hour (including multi tabling)

But what about STT at the $10+1 and $16+1 levels FOUR tabling

Also what about MTT with buy ins of $10-$40 Single tabling?

Any suggestions or thoughts welcomed

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Always an interesting question. I`m not sure if in reality you would set up a business this way (I have my own business BTW)

You would set targets but they would be weekly or even monthly targets.

Just say, for arguments sake, you need to make $5,000 per month/ $60,000/ year.

You need to aim for $80,000/ year and work backwards from there. At that stage you then decide if it is realistic or not.

The point I think I`m trying to make is that how much u make is dependant on your personal aims.

At the moment I have a credit card with a £250/ $500 limit. My aim with poker is to pay that off every month. As I enjoy playing poker the time I spend is not relevant to me, as long as I make enough to clear down the card.

Not the answer I feel you were looking for but an answer none the less

Indeed no quite the answer i was longing for, well a mile (or four) off, but it does raise an interesting point of the "business of poker" as well as it may not matter to a person how long it takes to earn a set amount which can be spend on a certain thing, like a credit card as long as they are happy to do so

However i was kind of looking for a mathematical viewpoint of how much one could make and/or what the expect return should be for STT and MTT.

As noted that cash games seem to have a "target" of five big blinds an hour when multi tabling (certainly at the lower stakes)

Anyone got any thoughts?

Thanks

I dont see the point in setting monetary expectations. There is always room to improve and while the guy at 6BB/100 is better than the guy at -2BB/100 its not because he is setting his goals higher. Your goal should always be to make the right decisions, improve and get better.

With that said MTT you will need a pretty good sized sample since most the winnings will be from huge amounts won, either skewing the amount high if you have a big cash or too low if you dont have one yet so I would be careful trying to draw any conclusions from any ROI metric.

Well, the mathematical viewpoint is that your expectation should be to lose the rake. That's the expected result for all players.

The only reason some of us profit from poker is that some poker players run a lot below average. The availability of a fish pool to feed the sharks varies between sites and stakes. And will also vary as time goes by.

My own experience with $10+1 SNGs on fulltilt was a 15% ROI. Which would make about $6/hour if you 4 table. But the sample size was only 116 games, so this may very well not be sustainable.

If you really want to have an idea what the best players are doing as far as ROI, you should check out sharkscope's leaderboards.

Dependent on how good you are, how much the rake is, and how good your opponents are.

You should try to maintain a ROI of at least ten percent, MTTs and SNGs, 10-15% is realistic, so do your figuring from there... I would figure at 10%, 15% is a bit ambitious.

widowmaker89 said:

I dont see the point in setting monetary expectations.

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Just a note, from a pure business point of view.

You do need to set some kind of target so that you can meet your expectations.

My expectations, as I put in the first post, is to be able to win around $500 per month. For me that is acceptable. If I make $1,000 in a month I`m very happy, if it`s $50 in a month I`ve not done as well as I expected.

From any perspective, you need a target, however, I`m not saying you should never beat that target.

That is not true at all. In poker you have no control on how how money you make directly and nothing good can come from focusing on it. You want to focus on making correct decisions that maximize EV, which obviously lead to maximizing amount made.

There are many reasons why nothing good comes from focusing on money made as it can only lead to sub optimal plays(protecting wins or trying to get back losses for example). Focusing on money made also causes people to focus on short term results which causes many more problems. There are books around this concept so I wont ramble on but poker is not a typical business, and setting monetary goals is not productive.

widowmaker89 said:

That is not true at all. In poker you have no control on how how money you make directly and nothing good can come from focusing on it. You want to focus on making correct decisions that maximize EV, which obviously lead to maximizing amount made.

There are many reasons why nothing good comes from focusing on money made as it can only lead to sub optimal plays(protecting wins or trying to get back losses for example). Focusing on money made also causes people to focus on short term results which causes many more problems. There are books around this concept so I wont ramble on but poker is not a typical business, and setting monetary goals is not productive.

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Y-e-e-e-s-s-s-s... a poker player who understands poker playing!!

I want to ramble soo badly, but you did a gr8 job making the point:

SHIFT FOCUS FROM OUTCOME TO PROCESS. We can control process... we never have any control over outcome (can only influence result, NEVER control).

It may come as a shock to a lot of people, but in business you do not have any control on how much money you make.

Like poker, it is down to having a good process and controlling your capital (bankroll)

I will not go into the ins and outs of it all, but as an example, you can set your sales people a target of 100 calls a day. They have to be `good` calls (the right decision at the right time, etc) However, for a variety of reasons, you can make 1,000 `good` calls and get nothing one week.

The next week you make 50 good calls and get 10 peices of business.

Poker, from a business perspective, is nothing more than an investment that is based on a variety of variables - same as the stockmarket. You use all the information you have available to make a calculated risk.

So, I know that if my play did not change, I make about a 50% ROI when I play MTT. So, if I wanted to make about $4,000 a month I would need the following, on top of the hardware, internetconnection, etc to run this business:-

$24,000 in capital (3 months worth of investment) as a minimum to start the business up.

So poker can be set up as a business. The reason not as many people make it is down to the fact they don`t set targets and do their homework and they don`t keep good records.

Believe me or believe me not