"downswings" and "upswings" opinions

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RamdeeBen

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Hello all,

I just wonder what your thoughts are on down swings and upswings in general.

There is a specific reason as to why I'm asking this and this is based on my recent experience in a down swing and then a sudden upswing.

As we all well know, your poker client or the deck of cards doesn't "remember" your down swings or upswings or give you a bad run of cards and say "ok, lets now give this guy his upswing"


Recently however, like I was saying I have been playing SnG's again in the MTT 18/45/90man format and was doing "ok" with gradual progress. I was mixing in 10c/25c and 50c SNG to build a BR again and move up in stakes for anyone wondering. I actually managed to move up to the $1.00 and $1.50 games I'm currently at, however

like you see with peoples graphs, when they hit a "downswing" it's quite a big bad run but then if they ride it out and don't tilt and just continue you grinding you always (if they are a winning player) without fail see a sudden spike in results going "your way"

It's the same every time, a massive downward spiral in your graph and you start questioning your game and then all of a sudden, 50 games in a row you cash and win 10 or whatever it may be. A massive ROI% for these games and it blocks out all your beats and suddenly you're in profit again.

I'm asking because I knew after a while I'd start wining again and this 50 buy-ins downswing was "ok" because I was getting my money in good for example and yes, it finally happened. I ran good, was hitting flop after flop, people was stacking me light when I picked up aces/Kings etc and everything has been fine, the last 50 games I just crushed but I wonder why/how it happens?

As you can see from my graph here, it's been a steady progress all the way through and boom I lose 50buy-ins. Believe it or not, I didn't tilt and I continue in the $1.00 games it really was just one session of 100 games and a net loss of $49.00..I didn't exactly tilt, might of tilted of a few buy-sin but not that many.


Totalgraphnovember5thwithdetails



The following 2 days I've just grinded out 50games each day and first day won 20 buy-ins back and then the following day I played like literally 21 tournaments and won 50 buy-ins..

As I expect when I contiunue this, I expect a "steady eddy graph" but expect swings again, I just find it weird that in most cases you hit a big down swing then hit a big up swing with the same part of the graph, you don't really ever see a gradual "grind" back up it's just a sudden "boom".

Thoughts on downswings/upswings?

I'm just wondering if it's all physiological as we all know it doesn't "remember" whats happened in previous games but I find it with nearly everyons graphs two sudden spikes up and down within the same preriod. It's not exactly happened at the begining of the grah and then at the end, it's all within in the same time so to speak


PS: THIS ISNT A RIGGED THREAD!
 
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BluffYou123

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My graphs tend to be similar to this. (without the steady progress part) I think a 50 buyin downswing is alot more likely in the $1 games because you have to go to showdown so much more often. $1 players don't get a fold button. :p Nice work ram. Sorry if most post contributes nothing to your thread but I've got a sore head today lol.
 

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fletchdad

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I am playing cash now, after a couple pf years of only MTT and STT. I have decided to give it a serious try, and am only just starting. I have done around 35k hands in the last 5 weeks, and had a terrible day, as you will see, where I had AA getting cracked by shit, set vs set with mine the loser, FH vs FH, flush vs FH etc. it really shook me. But other than that, sice this is my first foray into cash games, I am thinking it not a bad start, since I am not such a big loser, and have so much still to learn.

So I will out myself with this graph....

is .02/.05 nl


As far as what I think about downswings, I think I dont want any more.... But I am shooting for 500K hands by March-April, and will know probably much more about swings then I ever thought possible by then......
 

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BlueNowhere

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When I played $1 and $1.50 games I would generally go down $10 up $20. I mvoed up to $2.50 and $3.50 games and the swings started being loads worse, like down $20 up $40 or once down $50 up $100 culminating in an $150 downswing where I min cashed once.

I think the downswings and upswings are good. The upswings encourage the fish to keep playing and depositing.
 
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EvoFQ450

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I play MTTs on Carbon with average buy-in of approx. $15 (they are actually $2/$3/$4 re-buys). I have a steadily increasing graph and am currently @ 98.2 percentile of Carbon players. I recently had a pretty bad downswing though. I lost about 50 net buyins over about 200 games. I can't remember the last time I felt that depressed. But looking back and trying to be honest with myself, I can see that I had gotten cocky and wasn't playing my normal game. I felt invincible and was playing very loose and fast. I finally was able to admit this to myself about 1/2 way through the drought, but my results didn't improve, now due to just normal variance and not my playing as poorly any more, although rarely would I say I play perfect poker. Anyways, this was really depressing and I start feeling like "dammit what do i gotta do to get out of this!?" since I was now playing much better. By this time, my confidence has taken a pretty huge hit and wasn't what it was normally. BUT I JUST TRIED HARDER. I kept the TV OFF when I was playing to be able to concentrate. I would take my time on every decision. I stopped calling things I shouldn't, rationalizing to myself "well they're so dumb and playing so ridiculous, that I'll probably win anyways, so what the hell..let's go for it!" Finally, this re-commitment to more disciplined play has started to pay off and I have gotten those 50 buy-ins back, and am trying my damnedest (?) to keep it going. What I have learned from all this is that it's really important to play your best ALL the time. B/c when you don't and you start dropping, you may not be able to just turn it back on so easily. One more thing. Believe it or not, I think multi-tabling (only as many as you're comfortable with) has also helped, because I don't have the time to be raising UTG with KQs, so I tend to avoid some trouble that I might get into if I was only playing 1 table, getting bored and looking for something to do...(like play dumb hands out of position). Okay guys..my novel is over! Sorry I wrote so much, but this is as much for me as you guys as I am going to save this to remind myself of what I need to do if this ever happens to me again. GL everyone!!
 
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Poker Orifice

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Swings? What are y'all talkin' about?

Here's mine > (steady Eddie badge).
 

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WiZZiM

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There are no upswings or downswings really, it's just a way that we make sense of what is happening to us. But in reality, the only thing that matters is the hand we're in right now. Focus on the hand in question to the best of your ability, and i'm pretty sure that the graphs will take care of themselves.
 
blueskies

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I think it's normal. Even random walks generated on Excel rarely take on what you might expect. There are usually huge jumps up and down along the way.

Here's my graph from PTR. It's not complete as many hands are missing, but the general trend is pretty accurate. Couldn't win for 4 months (some incredibly bad streaks) and things have finally turned around in the last two months. (Finally having flush draws hitting around 1 out of 3 instead of 2 out of 3, winning most of the 6:4 flips, etc.)

I think the best thing to do is to end your session when things are going downhill and keep playing when you're running good as long as you are not tired. And once your good run start to feel like it's going downhill, end the session.
 

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wagon596

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I think there are downswings and upswings, when I get all my chips in 5 or 6 touraments in a row with the best hand and lose,,that's a downswing,,,when 4 or 5 hold up,,, that's a upswing,,( or what I like to call it, justice,,) Just my thoughts,,,
 
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