Double or Nothing Sit N Gos: Not Worth It
So, cardschat regulars:
I don't think the NL double or nothing SnG's are worth it, and here's why.
The bubble takes about as long on these SnG's as it does for regular SnG's -- eliminate five people for regular ones, four people for DoN. That means that the blinds are going to be at about the same place, assuming players of similar skill levels, which is now pretty much the case.
For you as a player, if you are going to win the SnG, you either win it because you have a huge stack (let's say 3x the starting stack), or because somebody gets eliminated ahead of you, even though you are also starting to get decimated by the blinds.
In the first instance, you would really rather be in a normal Sit-N-Go, because you have the potential to get 1st or 2nd place. First place pays 250% of DoN, second place 150%.
In the second instance, when you are one of the people threatened with elimination, you will often have to go all-in and you may very well get called in a coin flip situation or worse. For example, if you have AQ, you have to shove, and you may find yourself up against AK. Of course, same goes for any pair less than KK.
If you win that shove, you have made the money (congratulations!) but you now have a medium-big stack that can't compete for still larger sums of money.
So here's the math:
Let's say you play six $10 Sit N Gos and win or cash in four of them. If you play DoN, you've made $18.40.
If you can accomplish the same feat in a regular SnG, then let's say three of those times that you cash you get 3rd, for a total (net) profit of $21. Then of course, you lose two, for a total loss of $1. If you get 2nd or 1st in the other game where you cash, you are significantly ahead of DoN, by at least $7.60 -- almost 50%!
Now, of course, you might argue that it's harder to get any prize money at all in a regular sit n go, but I disagree. The problem with DoN is that it's so passive/collusive that if you are the short stack on the bubble, everyone will collude against you, plus you won't get called by medium stacks when you have a great hand. They might call in a regular SnG because they also need to build their stacks.
What do you think?