I agree with everything you said. Interestingly enough the points you make as to why short deck won't surpass NL are the same points that make me believe it is possible. First off I don't think anyone likes playing nine or ten handed especially live. Knowing that every tornament and cash game will be 6 max would appeal to most players. Not that I believe players would switch games just because of that but I do think it's a plus. The main reason I think it's possible for short deck to eventually replace NLHE is because ultimately it's the casual players who drive the game. Imagine every tornament you played or every cash table you sat down at was filled with nothing but the best players in the world. What brings players in and what keeps poor players coming back is the variance in the game. The idea that you can be a novice and still win is why poker is so popular. With that being said NLHE is getting closer and closer to being solved and the good players are becoming nearly impossible to beat. As the game gets more difficult many players will look for easier games.
