Deck shuffling, how 'random' is it?

When dealers shuffle by spreading cards out on table and mixing like a salad, or doing a standard shuffle, how random is that? Do cards often tend to clump and remain unchanged? Maybe for example, batches of 3 or 4 cards will remain in the exact same order as the previous hand. Or they just make human error in not shuffling thoroughly enough.

Which brings about the use of 'RNG' generators. Can it be said that, it's possible, if a software based RNG is "too random", it's actually NOT a true representation of a real shuffled deck?

That is, in real life, the real shuffle actually is "less random" because some cards can clump and stick together?

So it would go against the normal thought that a software RNG should never have any repeated, pattern based results? (So in other words, for RNG's to mimic a real shuffle, it SHOULD contain minute amounts of repeated results.. to simulate batches of cards clumped together)

(I am not implying this in any regard to the 'rigged' topics. This is more for analysis I'm using-- part of an experiment I'm doing to shuffle a deck in software that closely matches how it is actually shuffled in real life--with human flaws and all..)

If the dealer is doing their job properly then no, you shouldn't get clumps of cards sticking together hand after hand. Even if it were the case that some manual shuffles were imperfect though, I don't understand why you'd want to reproduce that?

A randomly ordered deck is what we want for every hand. If that's what an online site's random number generator gives us, then why would we want to make it worse just because some human dealers can't live up to the same standard? It's OK for the online version to be better.

For me this falls in the same category as people getting bent out of shape when sites use a continuous shuffle system during a hand, or getting excited by sites that let players cut the deck or that include burn cards in their shuffle system for no appreciable reason.

if players received 2 cards at a time you might have a point ...but poker games are dealt out 1 at a time which randomizes cards even more.

a game like euchre where cards are dealt 2 or 3 at a time would be more susceptable to incomplete shuffling

pfb8888 said:

if players received 2 cards at a time you might have a point ...but poker games are dealt out 1 at a time which randomizes cards even more.

a game like euchre where cards are dealt 2 or 3 at a time would be more susceptable to incomplete shuffling

Click to expand...

Yeah that's a good point. But what about, let's say last hand had an AK together (maybe they were the last cards mucked), then next hand you're dealt that same A (same suit). Now you can assume, that means the guy next to you might have the K.

If those two cards stuck together, they're right next to each other. Now the flop comes K 7 8, guy next to you raises.. you may fold.

If it were a RNG, now you can't assume he holds the K, and still feel your A holds out.

Where are you playin live that deals sticky cards?

If a dealer is doing his job properly then it about random as you can get.

Manual shuffling is more random than computer shuffling, because computers cannot generate truly random number sequences. Some poker bots work by brute forcing the code that the site uses to generate cards, and then using that to accurately predict peoples hands.

Seventy3 said:

Yeah that's a good point. But what about, let's say last hand had an AK together (maybe they were the last cards mucked), then next hand you're dealt that same A (same suit). Now you can assume, that means the guy next to you might have the K.

If those two cards stuck together, they're right next to each other. Now the flop comes K 7 8, guy next to you raises.. you may fold.

If it were a RNG, now you can't assume he holds the K, and still feel your A holds out.

Click to expand...

How do you know it was those two specific cards that "stuck together" though? Such an assumption would be both stupid and dangerous IMO.

And I'm still forced to wonder about my original point: even if it were the case that RNGs provided a better-randomised result (if the dealer is halfway competent it shouldn't be an issue, but whatever), why would you want to go to spend the time and money dragging the RNG back down to the level of an incompetent live dealer?

inb4

riggedmegathread

I guess it's a moot point because you just gotta play the cards you are dealt. I don't think you can assume anything about the randomness, random or not.

dd_decker said:

I guess it's a moot point because you just gotta play the cards you are dealt. I don't think you can assume anything about the randomness, random or not.

Click to expand...

Yeah it not like the dealer is a card mechanic that can pick who has the best or worst hands.

doomasiggy said:

Manual shuffling is more random than computer shuffling, because computers cannot generate truly random number sequences. Some poker bots work by brute forcing the code that the site uses to generate cards, and then using that to accurately predict peoples hands.

Click to expand...

pokerstars is pretty much as random as it can get, a true random generator, because it uses user mouse movements to generate what deck sequence it will use.

Some top pros can spot patterns in the way the cards fall after watching a dealer for an hour or so It's called "shuffle tracking".
That's one reason the dealers in casinos rotate about every half hour .

Dank Hugh said:

Some top pros can spot patterns in the way the cards fall after watching a dealer for an hour or so It's called "shuffle tracking".
That's one reason the dealers in casinos rotate about every half hour .

Click to expand...

Silly me i was under the assumption the dealers rotated because of tips at the different tables.

I seem to recall reading that the standard 2 riffle, 4 cut, 1 riffle is just about as effective as a 5+ riffe.

Dank Hugh said:

Some top pros can spot patterns in the way the cards fall after watching a dealer for an hour or so It's called "shuffle tracking".
That's one reason the dealers in casinos rotate about every half hour .

Click to expand...

Do you have links for anyone who says they can do this? I'm not saying it's impossible, but if the dealer is halfway competent it should be very, very difficult at best. Unless the cards are marked in some way, but that's a different issue.

IMO people should be a lot more worried about collusion and card marking (and card mechanics, if it's a self-dealt game) than they should be about shuffle tracking or just how random the shuffle is when they're playing live, especially in a casino.

doomasiggy said:

Manual shuffling is more random than computer shuffling, because computers cannot generate truly random number sequences. Some poker bots work by brute forcing the code that the site uses to generate cards, and then using that to accurately predict peoples hands.

Click to expand...

So did you buy Poker RNG 6.0? I'm guessing you're up gazillions then.... no?

shuffle tracking is for multideck blackjack

doomasiggy said:

Manual shuffling is more random than computer shuffling, because computers cannot generate truly random number sequences. Some poker bots work by brute forcing the code that the site uses to generate cards, and then using that to accurately predict peoples hands.

Click to expand...

There is no such thing as truly random number. Each random generator requires a lot of computer power. No poker site can affords each random generator for each table, So I guess random generators are shared among tables. It may not be "truly random", if you define "truly random" as each random generator for each table, BUT THERE IS NO WAY ANY ONE OR ANY PROGRAM CAN PREDICT OTHER PLAYERS HANDS.

pokerchris said:

There is no such thing as truly random number.

Click to expand...

Yeah there are.
The decimals of Pi for instance appear truly random.
If u have a bunch of uranium atoms they will split in a truly random order.

And to OP, you are on to something.
The live shuffle is not as random as the online shuffle.
But you would have to be Rainman to be able to take advantage of it.

Counting cards in Black Jack has nothing to do with the shuffle, but mearly uses the dependency between the cards dealt and the card to come.

It's random yet predictable with some specualtion

Basically you wont see to many events occurring over and over again more than say 4 times in a row,meaning by then a predictable next outcome will occur. I know this Because I have a shuffling machine and have studied thousands of shuffles similar to the shuffle master and it's not really random to a point. You will get mostly boards of boards like 4-9-5-a-4 then maybe another one with 3 to a suit then a pair then the next flop another pair followed by a blank-then once out out of 40 hands or so you get 44-2-9-9 a double pair. The majority of flops are 3 to a suit with a pair. So in a nut shell you can speculate after a flush pair board then pair pair and pair that the following flop will be blank or 3456-a which is a straight board and doesn't occur that much. This is why when you get a-k suited at the wrong time or kk and the flop comes 567-2-8 and your just out of luck. You can only play good cards and speculate to a point based on past events on what may occur. Assume the last 7 flops have been 4 pairs one flush and the last one is yet another pair. The flushes were 3 diamonds and one spade running board.. The next hand you play say 8-10 off may be an ok hand to play it hits blank boards of rainbow j-9-4 with a double gut shot and less worry about a pair or flush or aj off and hit that top pair with less fear of it pairing someone to trips or a flush. Face it set's double gut shots are kinda unpredictable part of the game it's when you time it correctly that it all works out unfortunately you need a computer or be rain man as stated but can be useful when you flop a set and think the board is probably going to pair.

It's random yet predictable with some specualtion

hmm

Yeah it's pretty random. Just a small chance of predicting the cards with live shuffle compared with the online shuffle which is totally unpredictable.

There are 80658175170943878571660636856403766975289505440883277824000000000000 different ways for a deck of cards to be shuffled. It is almost certain that when shuffled properly it will be the first time in history that a deck has been shuffled that way.