re: Poker & to the casuals
yes i do use hud. i guess a better question would be with what bank roll so you play 15s but with what roll do you require for that 150? 1500? 15000?
etc i go super nitty and have a 300 buyin rule but thats because hypers can be really swingy.
there are two types of sit and goes refereed to as jackpot sit and goes.
as mentioned you get a bonus for winning 6 in a row few people have actually done there homework on this. ill illustrate
assuming your 100% break even pre rake youd finish first 1 time in 6 exactly or 0.166666 now the odds
of hitting 0.1666 6 times in a row is 1 in 46656.
dont get confused though that doesnt mean it takes 46656 sngs on average to win the jack pot it means it takes that many blocks of 6. so multiply that by 6 and you get 279936. of course it is true to say as you pointed out a winning player would have an edge. winning 20% would be doing very well. but assuming we stick to that then we have the figures of 1 in 15625 so it would take 93750 games on average for someone with that figure to hit the jackpot.
now a full time grinder (5-10 hours a day) can get anywhere from 200-300 turbos in a day. or 500-1000 hypers in a day. this is assuming there playing 12-24 tables ad is obv traffic dependent but on stars in peak hours not an issue.
200 1399.68 468.75
300 933.12 312.5
500 559.872 187.5
1000 279.936 93.75
thats how many days from excel.
first row is break even 1/6 second row is 1/5 which would be exceptional btw.
please also bear in mind that this is mathematically how many games you should need to play before you hit it. in actuality it could be a lot longer or you might get lucky. i highly doubt a hyper turbo player would have that much of an edge.
and these figures are for people that are playing full time, it would be impossible to be a professional poker player when you could be losing/ break even due to the higher rake taken for over 4 years until you hit the jackpot. its a fantasy you might as well buy a lottery ticket and i dont know be able to feed yourself and have a life.
the second type of jackpot sit and go is also a joke this is where a wheel is spun and that determines the price pool. so say you bought in for $2 usually the price pool will be 2 times the buyin and there will be 3 players. the attraction is sometimes it can be a lot more and very rarely you can earn 1000 times your buyin and win $2000 for a $2 stake. that may sound great but again the numbers are very large and you would need to play a lot to get that. i have heard people managed to calculate the rake at 5% from all price allocations.
let me explain now the more hands and more players there are in any form of sit and go the bigger the possible edge that can be had. this is simply due to more opportunity. generally speaking 4% roi for 6 max hypers is very hard to achieve but can be achieved at the micros generally speaking rake is 5-7% depending on stake level on stars.
by the time you get to the top levels 2% is phenomenal infact the vast majority of grinders or pros there are negative rois before rakeback or vip program thats with a rake of under 4% its just over 3.5% at the $100 games.
if we reduce it to 3 players this edge dissipates rather quickly. 5% is huge rake for a 3player hyper turbo. in fact i highly doubt its beatable at all. if the worlds best was to play against fish at the micros for these though i wonder why they ever would, they would probably struggle to beat the rake. i dont think its doable.
now some you may talk about heads up hyper turbos go check the rake there i just did the very bottom stake 1.50 is 4% the next 15s is 2% and 30 is 1.5%
with the very top stake charging 1.1%. this is because if they put the figure at 5% unless you were constantly playing total idiots youd never beat the rake.
the whole point of poker the thing that seperates it from other forms of gambling is the fact if you put the work in you really can make money from it you really can profit. so many sites claim to sell the secret to beat roulette
anyone with a basic understanding of maths though knows this is literally impossible there's only one way to beat roulette and thats get lucky.
when people talk about poker as if its in the same class as roulette i argue with them however i wont be able to if main stream poker becomes jackpot sit and goes.
simply put it would be near impossible to make a living from jack pot sit and goes. if the play is seriously fishy you might be able to average a few cents a game, but you wont see that profit until you have run literally 1000s of $ in the red and finally catch your break. further youd need to do it full time to make it realistic to catch your break within a 5 year period.
further still your annual income if you did this would be worse then the average wage in Uganda note i have not looked up the average wage for Uganda but simply substitute Uganda for any third world country and your probably on the track for working out what your average wage is just take there's.
I have tried to explain this to the poker community and no one seems to grasp it or care. assuming the games offered continue to be offered and continue to run the an income should still be attainable due to efficient market hypothesis. however if those games are eliminated and replaced by jackpot sit and goes and the likes no income will be attainable online poker will become tantamount to scratch cards.
there is a big threat with monopolies been created the fact is poker stars
has been the biggest site for some time however they had the rival full tilt then black Friday happened and then poker stars bought out full tilt. now the company that owns on game has bought out poker stars and full tilt. this means 3 of the biggest networks poker stars ongame and full tilt are all owned by the same company. thats scary it leaves the only competition of ipoker and party poker
and it may only be a matter of time before they get absorbed too. there is no protection for the consumers against such monopolies. it means poker stars the poker sites
can do whatever they like since they have no legitimate competition they have a monopoly. thus its reaching a situation that if poker stars were to only do jack pot sit and goes or something similar no one could stop them.
this is a major issue that many people are currently missing.