Cantu's 10 5 V. AA

In the wsop tonight, Brandon Cantu made a weird call with 10 5. He tried to bluff it first, but it went disatrous when someone went all in pre flop with aces. The other guy in the hand folds, but Cantu doesn't. He takes some time to decide, and is thinking of calling because there is a big pot at stake, and he just wants to win it. I can see calling, because of this, but the call will take about half his stack. He ends up losing the hand, and is left with only about 2.5 million chips. What was he doing!?

I honestly don't know what kind of odds make you call in that spot. I mean it severely crippled him, and ended up that he lost a few hands later. I am with you...What was he thinking?

if i can generalize for a minute here...these young players today, and some older ones too are all about agression to the point that they dont seem to give the slightest thought to the fact that somebody else could have a real hand and make you pay. im sure he felt emboldened by some of his earlier loose calls with weak hands. he was even running his mouth while the cards were being put on the board. agression is fine, great even at times, but it wouldnt hurt to apply the brakes and shift grears sometimes. horrible call on cantu's part that i think was just based on his not thinking it through.

Haven't seen this yet, but a couple of things come to mind.

One is that Cantu is a loose, aggressive player. He knows that his opponents know this, and that they should be shoving a wider range of hands against him.

Which leads to the second point - this doesn't have to be aces. Obviously he's a long way behind big pairs, and he's probably not calling if that's all the villain could possibly have: he's an 87-13 dog in that case.

What if the villain has AK/AQ or something like that though? Then it's more like 67-33, and it's maybe not such an awful proposition.

There may also be some advertising benefits to the play. If he shows he'll call a shove with ten high, people might be less inclined to bluff him in the future. The flipside, of course, is that they're more likely to shove their good hands expecting action, but he's a big boy and I'm sure he can deal with that.

Long story short, it's not a call I'd make. But there are justifications available if you want to look for them.

He's your typical lousy young loose aggressive player....they do well until they reach these events...largely because people do not know how to beat them and hell, sometimes they can even do well for a good stretch in the WSOP events since the same idiots play against them there but eventually in the later rounds they are knocked out. I once saw someone post on a poker forum a few years ago that beating a LAG player is like getting out of a rip current....the more you fight it, the more trouble you get in...you simply have to sit back and just wait it out, sooner or later they will make a massive mistake...unfortunately too many people try to do the former and it enables these clowns to often have more successful sessions/tourneys than they ever should. And the best part is they become insanely scared of you once you beat them as well...they tend to become more fearful of an opponent after a huge lost pot than your average tight aggressive player does.

It's simple really. He's a donkey....and a jackass. Can't stand the guy.

cantu is a maniac. plain and simple. i still can't believe how he luckboxed his way so deep in the main event. surely he can't be a winning player with all the suicidal plays he makes. would be fun seeing him in a high stakes cash game tho, tossing a mil and a mil there....

Well...he's a pro, and has a bracelet already...welcome to the future of poker. You thought the bad beats suck now...just wait till you're sitting at a table full of these freaks!

I saw this on pokertube. First time I watched it I was certain the ruling would go canto's way . But after watching it a few times ... I was 50/50 on whether it was in fact a string bet . One thing is for sure ... even the tourney director does'nt have a rock solid idea of whats right and wrong.

JUMPY said:

I saw this on pokertube. First time I watched it I was certain the ruling would go canto's way . But after watching it a few times ... I was 50/50 on whether it was in fact a string bet . One thing is for sure ... even the tourney director does'nt have a rock solid idea of whats right and wrong.

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I think you're in the wrong thread, you wanted the strange ruling thread.

Yeah, that hand is from last week's episode, JUMPY.

Cantu is LAG and although his call was horrible, he was probably considering many of the points mentioned by Oz E.

I believe Cantu stated somthing (either right before or right after the cards were flipped up) that he thought he was up against AK. If he made a correct read, and was up against AK, he would have had 2 live cards and would have only been a 2 - 1 underdog. Because of the action he WAS getting 2 to 1 on his money, but he made the wrong read. He was actually a 9 - 1 underdog. In order to win these tourneys, you have to pick spots to play BIG pots. (of course, I couldnt pick T 5 offsuit as a premium hand to play a big pot)

Mogadown
Full Tilt

Nah, well he probably thought the guy was bluffing and he thought to himself, like, he probably seen so many hands and kinda thought at that moment any 2 cards can win, but someones u cant allways go with your gutt i guess, bottom line, yea,.. it was a dumb call, lol

mogadown said:

I believe Cantu stated somthing (either right before or right after the cards were flipped up) that he thought he was up against AK. If he made a correct read, and was up against AK, he would have had 2 live cards and would have only been a 2 - 1 underdog. Because of the action he WAS getting 2 to 1 on his money, but he made the wrong read. He was actually a 9 - 1 underdog. In order to win these tourneys, you have to pick spots to play BIG pots. (of course, I couldnt pick T 5 offsuit as a premium hand to play a big pot)

Mogadown
Full Tilt

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This. Cantu either believed he was against overcards or a mid PP like 88, making him at least a 2:1 underdog and getting 2:1+ on his money (like mentioned).

Keep in mind that Cantu is a very, very loose-aggressive player but he assessed and analyzed the situation very well as far as possible hands, odds of him winning, and pot odds. He is more likely to be up against overcards than an over pair and I think slightly more likely to be against mid-pair under 10 than over pair. (I'll have to check). Only thing he worries about is JJ+, 1010, 55. Everything else he is about 30/70. He made the bad read and ran into aces.

This isn't a play I would make, but I could see how he came up with the choice to make it.

IMO he made a bad call BUT..........
If the board didn't pair he would have won. Both his hole cards paired by the river.
My feeling is that he had two cards that ends up winning because thats what happens in poker. We've all seen it online and live too, two wacky cards that end up crushing aces. (go read the bad beat threads)
Remember he was telling the guy that it will be the worst beat that he will ever have. That leads me to believe that he made the correct read. He was also drooling over the size of the pot too. So IMO his eyes overcame his better judgement and he made the call. We all know that to make a final table in any tournament, a little luck is needed. He just went a little too far.

Gorblid said:

anyone has a link to the video of this hand?
i got to see this freaky hand

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check the latest uploads on pokertube.com

philthy said:

This. Cantu either believed he was against overcards or a mid PP like 88, making him at least a 2:1 underdog and getting 2:1+ on his money (like mentioned).

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He could easily be up against one of the hands philty mentioned so the call wasn't bad at all IMO

and plus to win that tournament your gonna need to take chances and trust reads like this

i like the call (not that i would have had the guts to call)

rotocub said:

It's simple really. He's a donkey....and a jackass. Can't stand the guy.

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lol. thats what I was thinking.

You can try to justify it anyway you want, but when you bluff so hard with 10 5 that you feel calling an all in reraise for that many chips is a good idea. Your a jackass. He put himself in that position and payed dearly for it.

Another point is that late in the main event you almost have to put the guy on a monster. Hes not risking all his chips on trash. AK, mabey, but to me its not worth that many chips to find out how lucky your gonna have to get to catch up.

I agree, I gotta hope he was guessing he had a race? I don't have a problem with the play for a bluff, but to just call an all in for half your stack with that kind of hand is pretty ridiculous.

Jayson745 said:

You can try to justify it anyway you want, but when you bluff so hard with 10 5 that you feel calling an all in reraise for that many chips is a good idea. Your a jackass. He put himself in that position and payed dearly for it.

Another point is that late in the main event you almost have to put the guy on a monster. Hes not risking all his chips on trash. AK, mabey, but to me its not worth that many chips to find out how lucky your gonna have to get to catch up.

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You're looking at just hand vs hand. You know Cantu is beat because you see the opponents hand. The opponent didn't have that much left to shove and it gave Cantu 2:1 to call on his money. If cantu figured correctly that he had live cards vs over cards or the opponent was shoving a pair under 99 for his short stack, then the call is mathematically correct at this point. Again, he is way behind 55 and 1010+, everything else he is worth a call at 30/70, a race if the guy is shoving 44 and smaller but he probably isn't. Its a very gutsy call, but still correct. Especially considering how much Cantu had invested.

Is it the best play? No. I'm not saying it is but its not the worst call either?

dweezel said:

IMO he made a bad call BUT..........
If the board didn't pair he would have won. Both his hole cards paired by the river.
My feeling is that he had two cards that ends up winning because thats what happens in poker. We've all seen it online and live too, two wacky cards that end up crushing aces. (go read the bad beat threads)
Remember he was telling the guy that it will be the worst beat that he will ever have. That leads me to believe that he made the correct read. He was also drooling over the size of the pot too. So IMO his eyes overcame his better judgement and he made the call. We all know that to make a final table in any tournament, a little luck is needed. He just went a little too far.

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Um, what?

I'm not a fan of Cantu's... but the WSOP this year made me a fan of some lesser known players...

Dennis Phillips, Joe Bishop, and Mike Carroll.

Jayson745 said:

Another point is that late in the main event you almost have to put the guy on a monster. Hes not risking all his chips on trash. AK, mabey, but to me its not worth that many chips to find out how lucky your gonna have to get to catch up.

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Interesting point, and it's good that we're talking about the metagame.

I'd have a different view on it though. At this stage in the Main Event, you can't be waiting for monster hands. LAGs like Cantu and others will run you over if you do. So if you're not going to be one of the players that's stealing the blinds and antes, you need to be one of the players re-stealing from the LAGs.

Now if you happen to catch aces that's great, but you can't necessarily sit there waiting for them - at some point, you're going to have to start picking lesser hands to play back with, knowing there's a good chance that the LAG (Cantu, in this case) is holding garbage (like T5).

Catch is LAGs like Cantu know this, so while it's possible you've got a hand, it's also possible you're just playing their image and not your cards.

I cant stand that cantu guy. He bluffs like and idiot all the time calls with horrible cards.. I was so glad to see him lose that hand. Atlease that other 8 came on the turn to give him a higher 2 pair cause cantu hit his 10 on the river.

OK - I've seen the hand now, and Cantu pretty much says it all: unless his opponent has a pair, he thinks he's priced in to call with ATC. 1.47m into a 3.82m pot may not be quite the right odds for that, but it's close.

Note too that his opponent in the hand is a pro (albeit a lesser-known one). I don't know a great deal about Hamrick, but a pro with less than half the average stack should be plenty capable of making this move with less than a premium pair.

What I can't understand is why this hand, and not the out-and-out-doucheyness of Tiffany Michelle, is the talking point from this episode