Calculating the EV of folding & questions about Calling on Draws
So, I have a math related quandary for you guys. How do you calculate your EV for folding? Obviously its negative(?), but I'd like to know how negative.
The reason I ask is this. I was manually going through some pot-odds calculations on the following scenario, and I ended up with some funny results. Here's the scenario:
Chance for Our Draw to Hit: 10%
Our Equity in the Pot before calling: 10%
No implied odds
at all & raising is not an option
Vary how much Villain bets & calculate EV's for folding & calling.
The way I calculated the EV for folding was to assume that since we have 10% equity in the pot, we're folding away $10 each time we fold. So the EV for folding is -$10 constant.
Then if I calculate the expected value
for calling, it becomes zero at the expected 9:1 pot odds
that you need to hit a 1:9 draw. However, it doesn't become less than -$10 until pot odds of 5:1! By this rationale, shouldn't we all be chasing draws a lot more, since folding will cost us more money? Am I calculating the EV of folding wrong? Should we just ignore any equity in the pot we have, and say that folding costs us nothing? Obviously I'm not discovering some great new truth about poker, so would someone enlighten me why the EV of folding must be 0 for the rules about pot odds & draws to work out?
Potshots, insults, and helpful discussions are welcome, but I always prefer the latter.
I also made an excel sheet to do this stuff, cuz I'm bored & a nerd. If you wanna take a gander at it, you can find it here
. But *caution*, Rapidshare sometimes has some banner ads that aren't the most work-friendly.