Bluffing odds

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brandonnj

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I have a question, say if you were tracking stats on a player, he folds 75% of the time to a continuation bet. Does that mean I have odds to bet 75% of the pot each hand against that player after raising?
 
thetaxman1

thetaxman1

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I would guess its the 25% of the time he calls that you have to worry about. Then after bluff exposure you would probably see a change in attitude. I know I open my range some after a bluff is exposed. I think the bets are figured based on the number of times you will win times the pot determines the wager.
 
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Xavier

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I have a question, say if you were tracking stats on a player, he folds 75% of the time to a continuation bet. Does that mean I have odds to bet 75% of the pot each hand against that player after raising?

If he will fold 75% of the time you actually have odds to bet 3x the pot and break even. I'd hardly recommend that though :D
 
joeaugie

joeaugie

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He would be the right person to c-bet against more often than not. Pay attention to board textures. Dry ones (3 non-connected random cards) would be the best against this type of player...easy money in the long run.
 
dg1267

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If he's folding 75% of the time this means that you can loosen up your starting hands if it's folded to you in late position. You can raise with more hands like 67s, 8Ts, any ace, etc.

If he calls forget about that 75%! He now has a hand that he's willing to play against a raise. So you better have a hand that is at least equivalent to what he might be calling with. In this case, you just want to play the board more than you play the player. You have a pot that is inflated and you're playing with someone who is telling you that "I will only call with the top 25% of my range" and now he's called.

Most of the time, you're gonna have to give up on hands like 67s when there are overcards on the board. So just remember, this is not the time to start pushing him around because you've been doing that the other 75% of the time. Now is the time to start playing smart and folding when necessary and raising when necessary.

And sometimes (but not all the time) you are going to have a player you've been shoving around a lot that takes it personal and he's not going to let his hand go. He might have caught AK and just isn't willing to give you any chips on this hand. That is where the smart player should kick in and know how to deal with him. He might bet back at you with a donk bet, he might re-raise you, he may shove on you. At that point, it isn't your responsibility to "see what he has in his hand". Pre flop he was telling you he had a hand by calling your raise, if he starts telling you that he's not willing to back down look at your hand, look at the board and start figuring your options and if it's worth it.
 
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