Originally Posted by blikbleek
also you guys say that theres no way to know what hes shoving with but lets just assume for the sake of this thread that the shover has pocket pair. (most of the time my read is right)
but ultimately this begs the question. if hes +EV with pocket pair, and im -EV (although minimal) with AK or AQ, then why should i call? wouldnt that be a long term loss rather than win?
of course when im way up in chips its a good call because i can still rebound if i miss. but if a miss is gonna deal a game ending blow, should i just fold the AJ+ if my read on him is pocket pair.(again lets not debate whether he does or doesnt actually have a pocket pair, lets just assume he does)
and by the way yea of course i have hit my overcard vs pocket pair plenty of times, but i think overall since i started playing heads up, its been long term loss. enough loss that im posting this.
but seriously, if someone just straight shoves on you preflop and you hold AK or AQ suited, are you gonna fold that in any situation?
For the sake of argument if we KNOW someone has an underpair and we hold A,K/A,Q - we call nearly everytime, based on his range not just being 2-2's+
Your theory is flawed because you can NEVER know 100% if they hold a pair thats the point and the whole thing surrounding EV and hand ranges. I know for the sake of this thread you want to know if we should be calling, but it's just stupid to ever imagine someone's range to be just shoving a pair that's why I'm saying you can't really say "if he has a pair should I call" because of course, you're always slightly -EV long term if you called A,Q/A,K 100% of the time vs a medium pair but this is totally unrealistic and will never happen because like I say, noone's RANGE
in heads up is 2-2+.
This is exactly why you should be calling a shove with A,Q/A,K because there range is never that, therefore it's +EV to call over the long term.
In regards to your theory about this player and you "think nearly 100% he has a pair" you should still be calling A,Jsuited because LONG TERM it's +EV regardless of if he's holding a pair. Sure it's a flip again, be it your a very small slight favourite vs his 2'2s,
however (even if he holds this pair ) add to his range, broad way cards, suited connectors, pairs and this a tight range for heads up (Only 22%, people play double the amount of hands usually than that) you still have 55% equity against his 45% equity so, you are in fact making money each time you call of A,J, do you see what I mean?
Lastly, you say you have played enough of the games to know it's losing, firstly how many games/hands is this over? You do realise the swings in HU is the most brutal in any poker? You could be on this downer where A,K (even though +EV longterm) might be losing money still after 1000 tournaments.
And no, I wont fold A,Q headsup or A,K headsup as someone's range will always say I have enough equity for me to call.
9 man table, I can fold both A,Q/A,K as there is a huge difference.
On an end note, try not to be results dependant don't even look at it in regards to A,K/A,Q all in pre flop how many you just lost, just know it's +EV vs anyone heads up LONGTERM
to be getting it in.