Bad runs & downswings

Im on a major downswing (at least for me) over the last three days. Im only playing 1 and 2$ SnGs (and yes i know variance is large in SnGs) so as to build up my smallish BR into ring games, and yet i just cant seem to win. Im down abt 15-20% of my BR, is this alot for SnGs? I know im not playing badly, ive just hit the worse luck of my poker like. So far in the last two days ive had aces and kings cracked no fewer then 8 times, and have only finished first in three of my SnGs...

Anyway how do others deal with a major downswing? Take time off? Battle on? Advice and comments welcome

Depends, if you feel like you are playing well and just on the negative side of variance keep playing. That doesn't sound like what is happening though.

If you aren't playing your best take some time off, read a book or some strategy articles whatever. You might be tilting in a way that is hard for you to tell until you step away for a bit.

I actually have been experiencing my first long downswing, and yes..it sucks. SnG's are my main area of profit and it's just been awful. I think the best way to overcome these tough weeks or months is to move down in stakes. I've been analyzing a lot of my play and found leaks in my game as well. If you are already playing at the lowest limit possible, I think analyzing your own play afterwards may be your first step.

SnG Variance is insane, like really insane. I made my run at SnG's like 8 months ago and quit because I couldn't handle all the swings. Here's some stats on how it went.

3500 games played between Stars $6.50's and $13 Turbos.
9.5% ROI overall
Two different 30+ buy-in downswings.
One 500 game breakeven stretch.
Three stretches where I went 10 games or more finishing out of the money.

It varies enormously. I think it is the same for everybody, just to slightly varying degrees. You can look at our CC tourneys as an example, even the CC Leaderboard.

The top players in the leaderboard are the most consistent, and have usually won 3-4 tourneys in a 3-month period, but that is out of several dozen attempts, usually.

And the next quarter, many of the leaders are different. It's not that the previous quarter's players have suddenly become bad players, they just have different runs of luck, and their standard of play can also vary, like anything else. Sometimes you are on top of your game, others you are not.

In the last tourney I played, I saw As cracked 4 times on my table. The players with them didn't play them badly - they just got unlucky.

Personally, if I hit a bad run, I take it easy for a while, come back fresh and see how it is. But I'm sure others are different, and there are many, many more experienced and better players than me here to offer you advice. That's just my twopence worth!

dsvw56 said:

SnG Variance is insane, like really insane. I made my run at SnG's like 8 months ago and quit because I couldn't handle all the swings. Here's some stats on how it went.

3500 games played between Stars $6.50's and $13 Turbos.
9.5% ROI overall
Two different 30+ buy-in downswings.
One 500 game breakeven stretch.
Three stretches where I went 10 games or more finishing out of the money.

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^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Everything he said. It's the primary reason I tranferred to cash. But hey, don't think varience doesn't occur there b/c it does as well, maybe to a lesser degree. The problem with SnG's is, well it only plays 3 places. So you can play 1 game for nearly an hour and play perfect poker, then booom your out on the bubble. Compound that by playing 12 tables and only finishing ITM on 2 tables and bubbling on say 4, then it really messes with your head. In cash it's different b/c your always winning and losing small/big pots. There are still d/wings but for me they seem a lot more manageable (he says after losings 10 BI's yesterday )

ajrobin said:

Im on a major downswing (at least for me) over the last three days. Im only playing 1 and 2$ SnGs (and yes i know variance is large in SnGs) so as to build up my smallish BR into ring games, and yet i just cant seem to win. Im down abt 15-20% of my BR, is this alot for SnGs? I know im not playing badly, ive just hit the worse luck of my poker like. So far in the last two days ive had aces and kings cracked no fewer then 8 times, and have only finished first in three of my SnGs...

Anyway how do others deal with a major downswing? Take time off? Battle on? Advice and comments welcome

Click to expand...

The first thing you must realize (and this is very counterintuitive), is there's no such thing as downswings. There's no such thing as upswings. There's no such things as streaks, but the brain tells us the opposite... and we believe what our brain tells us... so, wtf?

The only time a streak exists is when you're thinking about it, otherwise, it's in the past or future.

FOCUS ONLY ON THIS HAND, RIGHT NOW, THIS MOMENT, PERIOD!

Easier said than done, I know, but it's what separates the gr8 from the good. You have no control over yesterday, and tomorrow hasn't happened, so the only other option is RIGHT NOW!

As long as you continue to focus on "trying to deal w/ my downswing," you'll be ignoring today, and the decisions needed to play your best NOW! That statement (dealing w/ downswing) is, by definition, the past. The downswing is what happened in previous sessions.

Moving down limits may take some pressure off, but it doesn't address the "thinking about the past" issue.

If you feel like you can't stop thinking about the past, take a break. Your thoughts have to be about THIS HAND ONLY!

Remember, you'll believe whatever your thoughts tell you to believe... so shift your thoughts to RIGHT NOW!

The results will be what they'll be.

Stay focused,
Dayne

Dayne G. said:

Moving down limits may take some pressure off, but it doesn't address the "thinking about the past" issue.

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Dayne I agree with most of what you say, but for most ppl, they have to move down limits as the so called 'd/swing' dictates it. I mean a lot of ppl don't have the bankrolls to deal with it, especially if they have just moved up a level, so moving down is the only alternative instead of just burning money.

Personally, and this is why I harp on about having a good BR strategy, if you have enough buy in's at the level your playing at, then a d/swing shouldn't have that much of an affect. Easier said than done imo .

Having bad beats and card dead for 3 days is not a MAJOR downswing. Nor is winning only 1 out of 3 SNG's. Try one for 10 or 20 days, without any wins. Can and often happens. Your BR must really be shallow for you to worry about a 3 day downturn. Try to build up your BR slowly so you can take these short hits.
The thing is you cant chase money that is lost. Take a realistic analysis about your situation and what you want to accomplish. Take all opportunites to build up your BR without the risks of relying on cash games. For example SNG's where 30% of the field comes in the money, freerolls, etc. Or find a way to add to your BR externally.

After a nice 3 day "flow " I have given it all back and then some during a 3 day "ebb ".

To be perfectly honest, I was enjoying myself way more during the "flow".

Jagsti said:

Dayne I agree with most of what you say, but for most ppl, they have to move down limits as the so called 'd/swing' dictates it. I mean a lot of ppl don't have the bankrolls to deal with it, especially if they have just moved up a level, so moving down is the only alternative instead of just burning money.

Personally, and this is why I harp on about having a good BR strategy, if you have enough buy in's at the level your playing at, then a d/swing shouldn't have that much of an affect. Easier said than done imo .

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Totally agree! The "move down" is madatory... but is a short term fix!

BR management is a subject that gets ignored waaayyy too often-- everyone's in a hurry.

BUT... w/out understanding that streaks don't "really" exist, BR will always be a problem, because you never have enough