Bad EV?

Numbah 0ne

Numbah 0ne

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My EV is less than my total winnings, I'm not to familiar with EV so I'm not sure what this means. I don't play a wreckless style and I hardly ever push all in without premiums so what does the low EV mean?
 
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Pafkata

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It means that your winnings are because of luck ! You have put your money in with the worst hand often and you've won... Everyone here dreams to run like you ! :)
 
Kasanova King

Kasanova King

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It means you are getting very lucky and running really good. Congrats.
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

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It doesn't necessarily mean that you're putting your money in w the worst hand. Here's how it works:

First, the Ev line only measures all in situations, not every decision you make. So this discussion is only for all-ins.

Let's say you go all in for $100 pf w a hand that's an 80/20 favorite at 100nl (I'm rounding - let's say you shoved AA's and got called by KK's). Your expected value is $80. You win $100 (I'm ignoring rake and blinds to keep this simple). Your winnings line will show $100, your Ev line will show $80.

Let's say the next hand you go all in for $100 w a hand that's a 20/80 dog (again rounding - let's say you shoved KK's into AA's). Your expected value is $20. You win the hand, so now your winnings line shows $200 and your Ev line shows $100.

So you got it in good once and got it in bad once. Note that BOTH hands contributed to your Ev line going up. Note also that in BOTH hands you made the correct (standard) play. It's not really fair to think of this as sucking out.

Note also that your OVERALL PLAY ISN'T BEING MEASURED, ONLY ALL IN'S. So you could be the worst player in the world running really super hot in all in situations, or you could be the best player in the world running more or less normally.
 
belerophon

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Wouldn't this anomaly also show situations where you have position on someone, make a good read and hit your set or draw? So you could just be playing strong positional poker right?
I mean I'd like to think that my higher than ev line over the last 20k hands has more to do with my skill than with me running well.
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

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The Ev line in HEM and PT3 only measures ALL IN situations. If you're getting all in w positional draws before the river, then yes it'll capture these. If not, then no it will not.
 
thepokerkid123

thepokerkid123

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Belerophon, skill (good or bad) has nothing to do with EV. What you got your chips in with doesn't effect the relationship between your EV line and winnings line, it's only a rough guide of how good or bad you're running.
 
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