probability of it going down? Well, lets see. if i'm not mistaking, should look something like this: first guy's cards: 25/52*3/51 enemies's cards: 24/50*3/49 u need to come: 4/48*3/47*2/46*1/45 multiply by 2 just to simple things out, since there are 2 more cards to come. I guess this is a close estimate to the value of quads over quads: 0.0000000085 to 1 I might be wrong here, but that seems fair enough.