We have discussed in the past the `luck` element involved in poker.
I feel I can now put my bad beats behind me easier now, and accept that if I go to war on a regular basis in a showdown with the best hand at the stage I/ we were forced all in I am happy. I know in the long term it will hold up more than it does not.
So, the reason I say this is I play mainly tournys. I have played in 45 tournys from end of June to now. My average placing is just on 19%. I got to this by totalling up my position and dividing it by the number of entries. i.e in those 45 tournys a total of 27,034 played (2 freerolls with about 4000 in each) and adding up my finishing positions that came to 5.203.
If you understand some of the tournys I was out early - example one tourny with 264 entries, I went out in position 222 (sad!!!) and others 104 entries went out in 5th. I have left the freerolls in - I think it does not make much difference unless u regularily hit top 10 every time.
I`m sure things like Poker tracker look at this but for some reason I have not tried it yet, I still keep my own Excel spreadsheet logs.
I need a statictician for this one, but I think this shows that on average I am in the top 20% when I play, so I think that means that I must hit the money, based on top 10% being paid, one out of every 5 MTT I play in.
I have confused myself, but I think I`m right!!!
Help me guys!!!