Asssume all other players are stupid until proven otherwise?

F4STFORW4RD

F4STFORW4RD

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So I receive regular emails from Tri "SlowHabit" Nguyen of Daily Variance, and I wondered whether his latest latest email was worth discussing.
Hi, this is Tri.

It was the 2009 WSOP and I was sweating my friend Ryan play online
poker. I love sweating other players and can sit forever at a live
poker table if I have a chance to sit behind a great player. He was
playing short-handed high stakes up to 50/100NL and I was amazed at
what I was seeing. His strategy is to call a lot if he doesn't have
the betting lead and bet a lot when he does. It all seems so easy.
People were folding left and right and although he calls a lot,
people kept on bluffing him. After he was done with his session, I
asked him what he thinks about my game even though he didn't even
see me play it. I was more concerned with my thought process. He
said, "Tri, you give people too much credit."

I was obviously confused because I don't think I give people a lot
of credit. Nevertheless, he thought it was too high. Then it hits
me. I seem to lose a lot when I give people too much credit for
their hand reading ability. I assume certain players can make hero
calls even though I have never seem them make one in their entire
lives. What usually happen is they'll tank, tank, and then fold. It
can get frustrating when you have a good hand and want them to
call, especially if you have been getting out of line a lot.

Since I give people too much credit for hand reading, sometimes I
hesitate to pull the trigger on a huge bluff. But from that point
on, I became a better player. And it was to revert my old
philosophy I used a long time before everyone became "good." I
assume everyone who I play against is a moron until proven
otherwise. This instantly made me a better player because I was
able to get away with all kind of plays. And when I see a regular
doing something tricky, I just fold even if I have a good hand
because when a regular goes out of his way to be tricky, he's
usually doing it with the nuts. He won't do it with air because
it's so obvious that he has nothing that he can't do it. I'm not
even going to bother with the leveling war in this situation.

When I first play poker, I thought everyone didn't know how to play
because they always fold. Then somewhere along the way, I lost this
mentality and end up giving people too much credit. I know I got
this bad habit from reading poker forums. When you are reading a
poker forum, no one wants to appear as a bad player so they will
often post result-oriented suggestions. A bet that can be very hard
to call during game time is easy when posting in the forum. And
when you keep reading posts of making sick calls over and over
again, you overestimate the competition and end up giving your
opponents too much credit. What this does is it makes you more
reluctant to bluff.

I remember playing against a certain play who posts regularly on a
popular forum. Every time he posts a reply, he always say, "call.
But then again, I'm a calling station lol." Since he posts a lot
and seem like a solid player, I actually believed him. For the
first few sessions we play, I don't think I make a big bluff on him
because I was afraid he's a calling station. But after a while, I
realized he rarely check-raise and fold any time I show any type of
aggression. Then it hit me. He was just saying that so the regulars
at his stakes wouldn't bluff him and put him in tough spots. I
thought it was very clever of him.

His story reminds me of a friend by the name of EmpireMaker2. In
case you don't know who that is, he was one of the biggest winners
during the Party Poker Era. He always go on poker forums and said
he was the only true LAG left and how everyone is so tight. This
was before poker tracking software became popular. A few months
before the legislation passed, it was revealed that EmpireMaker2
was the tightest player of all time. He was raking in a lot of
money because people kept paying him off. He kept showing two pairs
or better every time but only a few catches on. I have to give him
props for being so clever.

From these experiences, I learned that sometimes, it's tough to
prevent yourself from being tricked through forum postings. I'm not
ashamed that I believed in a lot of things posted and I think it
made me a bad player. I have always suspected that but thought I
was being paranoid. Only when Ryan said that I was giving people
too much credit did I realized my leak. Ironically, Ryan doesn't
read any poker forum and he does very well for himself.

So the next time you play at a poker table, assume your opponent is
moron and is a bad player. Sometimes when we play against a player
with a great reputation, we end up showing him too much respect and
thus, play our hands in a manner that is easy to read. If we just
play our hands like we normally would, he wouldn't know. But
because we are afraid of his hand reading ability, we take the
worst lines possible and thus make our range face up to him.

A few years ago, before Brian Townsend became one of the best PLO
players in the world, he was playing heads-up against a player by
the screen name Gordo16. I remember reading Brian's blog and even
though I didn't know anything about PLO, I thought Gordo16 was bad.
Because if Brian Townsend thinks you play bad, then what you did
during the session was probably incorrect. The funny thing was
Gordo16 didn't even know who Brian was even though Brian was
cleaning up the highest no-limit holdem games on the internet.
Because of Gordo16's ignorance, he was able to play really well
against Brian. In fact, during this time frame, Gordo16's friends
messaged him and let him know who Brian was. Gordo16 didn't care
because he felt he had an edge and he was right. Brian just
recently took up PLO and to play heads-up against a HU PLO
specialist is asking for death. It wasn't surprising that Gordo16
ended up winning a lot during their HU battles and we have Brian
scratching his heads in his blog.

From all these experiences, I try my best to play my game and
assume my opponent isn't great. Once he starts giving me trouble,
then I'll start giving him credit from there. I always love it when
I play against people who give me too much respect. I just keep
betting and they keep folding.

Keep crushing,
- Tri



 
JamesDaBear

JamesDaBear

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Moron... bad... stupid... these are not technical terms. None of them are specific enough designations to help you while you're playing.
 
Arjonius

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It may be going a bit too far to assume someone you're not familiar with is terrible, but I do think you shouldn't give them credit for being any better than middling unless and until they demonstrate otherwise.
 
F4STFORW4RD

F4STFORW4RD

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How about the suggestion that reading forum posts can make you overly analytical of other players?
 
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genleemb

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While that may be right for Tri, it might not be right for you/us. How terrible a player is relative. If you're really really terrible and the people you are playing are just somewhat terrible, then this would backfire on you.
 
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F4STFORW4RD

F4STFORW4RD

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Do forums make you overly-analytical?
 
JusSumguy

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Do forums make you overly-analytical?

This analyzing has to be put to practical use. For me, the question is...

What are forums for?

A smart man learns from his mistakes.
A wise man learns from others mistakes
. ~ Confucius


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beardyian

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a slight re-wording needed here....

It is better to let others think you are stupid,
Rather than show your hands and prove it. :D
 
dmorris68

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Yes, I do believe you can become over analytical and give people too much credit. And not just from forums, but from books, videos, coaching, and any other means we use to study and improve our game.

When you decide to study and take advantage of all the resources available to players who truly want to learn and improve, it can be easy to assume that everyone you're playing with is doing the same. When in reality, the vast majority of players are recreational players (even the "regular" recreational players) who never think beyond their cards, or at best, their image of you. They're seldom level 2 or 3 thinkers, so if you're not careful it can be easy to level yourself.

It's happened to me. When I first started studying and understanding poker strategy beyond the most basic level, I just assumed others were as interested in improving their game as I was, and must be reading all the same books and forums that I was. I'd wind up out-thinking myself while trying to out-think them. Once I realized that and went back to assuming every player is bad until I know different, I saw immediate improvement in my results.
 
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fugitive67

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i agree, good post, i've kicked myself many a time for betting every street vs. a lesser player holding A high or bottom pair

or trying to check raise somebody that has no interest in trying to steal a pot or even betting a their made hand
 
Nathan Williams

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In a word, yes. Although I don't say to myself that they are "stupid." Lots of highly intelligent people are not very good at poker. I just don't give unknowns any credit as a decent to good poker player until proven otherwise.
 
JusSumguy

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a slight re-wording needed here....

It is better to let others think you are stupid,
Rather than show your hands and prove it. :D

Another iteration...

It's better to tuck your tail and fold
Than bet into an obvious trap. ..:D


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