Winning = avoiding bad beats. Limit your risk.

I had a very good day today.

After a very good run on bodog, I switched back to Carbon, where I had about $400. Things went south and I bottomed out last week at $188. I decided I had to re-dedicate myself to better play. That's usually all it boils down to. So I playd well this past week and now have my Carbon account back up to $436 for a gain of about $250. I also made $50 at Bodog, so I've had a $300 week at the $25 tables. I'm happy with that.

The only bad session I had was a session of Omaha I played today, oddly enough just as I'd decided to play more Omaha. I suffered a horrendous suckout and lost about $20. But I won ten of that back in a freeroll, then decided to play Hold 'Em to freshen up. I got pocket aces and these other two guys were raising and re-raising. I got them all in. My aces held up against their queens and jacks and that was a $40 win for me. I'll never understand why queens and jacks would go all in with that much action and strength apparent. But I'm glad they do.

The real key to my turn-around has been reducing risk. I know how to win with good cards and good position, but I get myself in a hole when I needlessly lose pots I shouldn't even be in. I've learned to be able to lay down the "pretty" cards. This insight is reinforced by the dynamics of Omaha, where your "strong" flopped hand rarely holds up by the river. My bad beat today was a flopped straight I tried to protect. You can't protect hands in Omaha, so unless you have a made hand AND a strong draw, you might as well just slow down.

The same dynamic applies to hold 'em, and it took some Omaha experience for me to realize that. We get the adrenalin rush when we get our aces or kings or flop a straight. But one of the worst things we can do is overcommit with these hands. For one thing, trying to "protect" them with overbets limits our profit, as other hands will usually fold rather than pay us off. For another, it's really important to understand the dynamics of the draw. In Omaha, the most likely winning hand is often the best drawing hand - not necessarily the one leading at the flop. When we go all in with our big pairs or flopped straights, we're either folded to for a small profit, or we're committed with no further power to act. We'e at the mercy of the board.

Why not slow down a little, build that pot that we expect to win and leave ourselves an out without a devastating loss should the turn or river go against us.?

I did something today that would have been unthinkable for me a few months ago. Hold 'Em. I had A5. The flop came A54, giving me top two pair. I made a raise of 2/3 pot. He re-raised X3. Did he have ace with high kicker(AK)? A low set? The best possibility seemed to be that he called my pre-flop button raise with suited 23 from the blind and made a straight. What now? In spite of my top two pair, I thought I was probably behind. I could chase the full house and might pretty well blow most of my stack while doing it. I did the tough thing and folded my very pretty cards.

The guy rabbited. He had 45 for two pair. I'd folded the best hand. The turn was a 4, giving him a fullhouse. I'd been ahead at the time I folded, but the turn gave me a losing hand. Though my read was wrong, my ability to fold a pretty big hand saved my stack.

I think it's one of the biggest things I've learned recently. In order to win, don't expose yourself to a lot of loss. Be bold, but don't be stupid. Constant all in play is not very smart and can damage your stack. As you develop as a player, it's better to leave yourself some room to develop post-flop playing options. All in, all the time is a cowardly and foolish way to play.

Gary

The guy rabbited. He had 45 for two pair. I'd folded the best hand. The turn was a 4, giving him a fullhouse. I'd been ahead at the time I folded, but the turn gave me a losing hand. Though my read was wrong, my ability to fold a pretty big hand saved my stack.

So you folded the best hand? Sounds like a strategy to play weak-tight which can be enough to get you to the $$ in a tournament but rarely is a WINNING strategy. When you have an equity edge you should be taking advantage.

WVHillbilly said:

The guy rabbited. He had 45 for two pair. I'd folded the best hand. The turn was a 4, giving him a fullhouse. I'd been ahead at the time I folded, but the turn gave me a losing hand. Though my read was wrong, my ability to fold a pretty big hand saved my stack.

So you folded the best hand? Sounds like a strategy to play weak-tight which can be enough to get you to the $$ in a tournament but rarely is a WINNING strategy. When you have an equity edge you should be taking advantage.

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HI Hillbilly,

I folded the best hand as the result of the wrong read. I don't habitually go around folding the best hand. I can't remember the pro, but I read an article where one of them said that yes, they can be bluffed, and yes they sometimes will fold the best hand. And it's OK. I think it was Phil Ivey.

But you miss the point. Sometimes making a big call with the best hand at the time is still an unreasonable risk, especially if there are some strong draws on the board against multiple opponents. If you play Omaha, you know that going all-in with the best post-flop hand can have disastrous consequences. The same is true to a lesser extent in hold 'em. My point is that current hand strength is only one factor. As board cards are revealed, it's a dynamic process. We can envision scenarios where the leading hand is actually mathematically behind by the river. Why would you dump your whole stack in for such a situation?

I know since I've been playing less recklessly (LAG to TAG) my results have been better. Folding the best hand when the situation calls for it does not make me a weak/tight player. This was a cash game, by the way. I would have been more likely to take my chances in the late stages of a tourney.

Thanks for the discussion.

Folding the best hand when the situation calls for it does not make me a weak/tight player.

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I also don't really understand your logic here...unless, by "the best hand" you mean a hand that is made but is mathematically an underdog to your opponent's hand.

The Shrog said:

I also don't really understand your logic here...unless, by "the best hand" you mean a hand that is made but is mathematically an underdog to your opponent's hand.

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Exactly.

But your hand was a huge favorite (over 90% to win after flop) so your argument in this case is invalid. The fact that this was a cash game makes it SOOOOOOO much worse. I can find reasons to fold in certain tourney situations but never in a cash game. The fact that he would have hit a 2 outer doesn't make your play correct.

How does this new stratagy effect the way your opponents play against you?

Do you find them raising you far more post flop in order to push you off pots?

Do you find them folding more when you push back?

How do you find this balancing out?

glworden said:

But you miss the point. Sometimes making a big call with the best hand at the time is still an unreasonable risk, especially if there are some strong draws on the board against multiple opponents. If you play Omaha, you know that going all-in with the best post-flop hand can have disastrous consequences. The same is true to a lesser extent in hold 'em. My point is that current hand strength is only one factor. As board cards are revealed, it's a dynamic process. We can envision scenarios where the leading hand is actually mathematically behind by the river. Why would you dump your whole stack in for such a situation?

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But you didn't mention it was multiway, just you and villain and no strong draws out. Really only afraid of 44 or 23 (don't know how that was "best possibility") ahead of AK AQ A4 45 or 67, A2, A3 for some villains. Would have to be an awfully tight player to consider folding top 2. Forget the rabbit cam, villain had 2 outs.

bad beats are unavoidable... thus being a bad beat... being ahead and losing doesnt make it a bad people if i got JJ and he has 10 9.. and flop comes 10 5 2 im only going to win 80% 8 times out of 10... in this situation people screw themselves by over betting consistently within the odd ans youll be ok (i dont really chalk hands up as a bad people until i have a better then 90% chance of winning...

glworden said:

I did something today that would have been unthinkable for me a few months ago. Hold 'Em. I had A5. The flop came A54, giving me top two pair. I made a raise of 2/3 pot. He re-raised X3. Did he have ace with high kicker(AK)? A low set? The best possibility seemed to be that he called my pre-flop button raise with suited 23 from the blind and made a straight. What now? In spite of my top two pair, I thought I was probably behind. I could chase the full house and might pretty well blow most of my stack while doing it. I did the tough thing and folded my very pretty cards.

The guy rabbited. He had 45 for two pair. I'd folded the best hand. The turn was a 4, giving him a fullhouse. I'd been ahead at the time I folded, but the turn gave me a losing hand. Though my read was wrong, my ability to fold a pretty big hand saved my stack.

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I understand what you are saying here. Given the action on the flop, it was quite possible you were beat at this point and I can understand a lay down if you assessed the situation as you being behind. I can also understand that your read might've been off and you folded the best hand before your opponent turned a better hand. However, you saying your 'ability to fold a pretty hand saved you a big stack' is completely backwards thinking and you are being completely result oriented. It's one think to be able laydown a big hand if you think you are beat, but you didn't save a big stack because your opponent hit. You saved a big stack because of the way you assessed the situation and you came to the conclusion you were beat. Even though you're read was wrong, the fact you opponent hit the 4 on the turn has nothing to do with you saving your stack.

Let me ask you this, what if you folded and the turn was an Ace? Did your wrong read just cost you a double up/all of your opponents chips? In your thinking from the above post, you would probably view it this way. And instead of feeling like you made a 'good' choice, you would probably feel like you made a horrible choice, even though you may have made a good decision to fold based if you thought your were beat.

Bottom line is: You make your decisions, good or bad/right or wrong based on each situation, the information given, and you try to make the correct play possible. The results of what-could-have-happened in the end should never be a factor in the decision you made. Otherwise, you'll just be result oriented everytime.

I'm the OP.

I appreciate the discussion and agree with much of the criticism. Philthy has it right. As I said at the beginning, I laid it down because of a wrong read. My point was really that it was a tough hand to lay down, but I did it anyway - something that would have been difficult for me a few months ago. I consider this to be progress. And while there were certainly lots of other hands that the villain might have had, I considered 23 a real possibility because he was in the blind and could have had anything, and this was a player who'd been making lots of pre-flop calls.

Had I been clairvoyant and correctly put him on his 4,5, I would have pushed. I would have lost, but it would have been the correct play. I understand and agree that a results-oriented approach to the game is wrong, but if an occasional bad read like this saves my stack, I'm sure not going to regret it.

In describing my progress, I'm not saying this was the best play, but I am saying that my flexibility to consider laying down even good hands has cut my losses. It's a pretty hard thing for a beginner to do, and the relentless coveting of TPTK has been an expensive mistake for me. How do people play me differently? Since I'm tighter, I think my bets have more respect. I guess one weakness I have is unless I'm close to the nut I often will fold to a re-raise. I think I was bluffing and position betting too frequently before anyway, so now I'm not being so adventurous and am betting more for value, which tends to keep me out of trouble. When I do bluff, my bluffs are working better and I've even had success as a re-raiser.

It's a complex game. I'm trying to figure it out. All your comments and criticism are appreciated.

As to the general theme of folding the best hand:
If you can't fold your AK or Queens you have no chance of winning a
tournament - Jennifer Harman paraphrase...

"If you can¹t fold the best hand you can't play." - Amarillo Slim

"If you can't fold the best hand, you aren't a poker player." - Doyle Brunson

If you can't fold your AK or Queens you have no chance of winning a
tournament - Jennifer Harman paraphrase...

"If you can¹t fold the best hand you can't play." - Amarillo Slim

"If you can't fold the best hand, you aren't a poker player." - Doyle Brunson

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They may say this.

They may write books that preach this.

But after watching 3 straight seasons of Late Night Poker.. they dont often do it!!!

Folding a good hand is an art.... folding the best hand is a mistake.

Bad beats suck ***

I've noticed that there are alot of idiots that play the game we strive to get better and better. Some of them just have money to throw away and don't care to push all-in. The rest are just trying to get lucky. Wish you good winnings and watch out for the donks.

IMO a tournament (at my levels FR-$10) is comprised of 50-60% players like ourselves striving to get better at this game that we love, the rest are donkers just blowing off steam and hoping to get lucky.

Key to winning:

***********Trap the fish with your good hands and don't get unlucky (yes, its not about getting lucky, its about NOT getting unlucky ).

Out of 10 small tourneys I may plan in a night I'd say i lose on a suckout in 90%. I do misread once in a while and get crushed by a better hand but most of the time its the inevitable A on the river that kills me.

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying here. The guy hit a 3-outter on the turn and you're patting yourself on the back for folding before the turn? 90 some percent of the time, you made a bad play, yet you are considering this a winning strategy? Him hitting that 3-outter is part of poker and yes, you will lose a lot of chips if that happens...you will also win a lot more if you trap or reraise him the 90% of the time that he doesn't get lucky.

In Omaha, I can see where folding the best hand can be a good decision, especially when it's 2 pair, because a lot of the time your opponant is drawing to a bunch of outs, but not in holdem.

glworden, forget that above post you did raise from the button

You have to expect ups and downs playing online. But someone once said a skilled player is the one who can lay down a winning hand. Unfortunately with online you can't gets reads off players like we do in real life. Often enough we will see someone at the tables make the wrong read for better or worse learning from our own mistakes makes us better players. Learning from others makes us stronger

Running from the Donks

We all love the game. We pour our blood,sweat, and tears in this game. We don't ask, as some will say the Gods, for anything much in return, except for the joy of catching good cards. Even when we get good cards, even great cards, there is always that one idiot that has to call with crap hands. Sometimes he catches and sometimes he doesn't, but when hee does it just pisses you off, and it makes you wonder why he would even think of calling with some of the hands that they call with. We all wish that they wouldn't call, but they will and they won't go away.



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The cycle never ends!