Win small lose big… how to break the cycle ?

Hi everyone,

This is my first post, thanks to you all for the help you provide.

I have been playing for a few years, in the last couple of years I have been doing OK on 1/2 cash tables - I can usually grind out 100 - 200 profit over the course of an evening.

There aren't any casinos near where I live (UK) so I have decided to try and become more proficient on line. I am currently playing 0.10/0.25 on pokerstars.

I usually sucked at online poker, but now I am really taking things seriously and want to improve.

I am using Pokertracker, and my stats are all pretty good, more or less where they need to be. I am reading and studying theory and I can usually grind out small wins over a period of time, as I do in the live games. So my online play has improved a bit.

Now, there must be a serious flaw in my play as I am now running similar to my live games - when I lose I tend to lose very big, usually to an all in situation.

I am fairly confident when I go to the flop/turn betting that I have done everything by the book, even running the odds afterwards seems to show the decisions weren't too bad.

I can usually wipe out one or two days profit in 2 or 3 bad hands, and I never seem to see it coming.

So, my question is, how can I take a critical look at my post flop play in order to identify and close the holes ?

If anyone can recommend any resources or anywhere that looks at Pokertracker stats and makes suggestions please let me know.

TL;DR - small wins and big losses, looking for help analysing my game.

Many thanks to you all.

Enesem

FFS...

So, it just happened again. Here is the play:

PokerStars - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 102.68 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
CO: 153.52 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
SB: 65.88 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
Hero (BB): 77.08 BB
UTG: 47.04 BB (VPIP: 17.02, PFR: 14.89, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 47)
UTG+1: 88.24 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 14)
MP: 101.4 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Qc Kd
fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 2.52 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.52 BB

Flop : (5.44 BB, 2 players) 8c 2c Ks
Hero checks, CO bets 3.44 BB, Hero raises to 6.88 BB, CO raises to 18.8 BB, Hero calls 11.92 BB

Turn : (43.04 BB, 2 players) Kc
Hero bets 55.76 BB and is all-in, CO calls 55.76 BB

River : (154.56 BB, 2 players) Js

Hero shows Qc Kd (Three of a Kind, Kings) (Pre 48%, Flop 6%, Turn 16%)
CO shows 2h 2s (Full House, Twos full of Kings) (Pre 52%, Flop 94%, Turn 84%)
CO wins 147.6 BB


This is typical of the kind of thing where I get an all in situation and lose. I just no way saw a pair of 2's.

If anyone wants to hook up and have a dig through my Pokertracker hands, let me know. I am sure there must be some obvious flaw in my style of play that enables people with pretty weak hands take my stack without too much trouble. Bah !

Thanks in advance,

Enesem

I think maybe you're over estimating the strength of your hands your playing..

On the flop, he 3-bet you after you re-raised you..

I mean at that point what do you think he can possibly have to re-raise you after you check-raised him..? I mean I guess he could've possibly thought you thought he was c-beting so your raise could've just been to take down the pot so he re-raised...but I don't think that's very likely...I mean we have to be looking at a set or AK at the very least (possibly a two pair if they're somewhat loose enough to raise preflop with K8).

When the Kc came on the turn that just completed a club flush if villian had one. At this point the only thing you're really beating is a bluff. He's not calling you down all in with anything less than AK so I have no idea why you would even move all-in, unless you have a read on villain and he's the type to go crazy with something like A8.

But yea, that turn I think you should've just checked. Villain was probably going to go all-in anyways on the turn though, but I think it would've been possible to fold the three kings. You're being beat by a decent amount of hands; AK K8 any two clubs, 88, 22.

Thanks for the reply.

I appreciate the hand analysis - I know there is a separate sub forum for that, so I may post there for details on some other hands.

I think you are right, I am probably not evaluating the strength of the hand correctly, though again I am studying but find it difficult to make judgements when time is short.

I am also probably raising too much on the flop. I read a lot about flop play, but so far haven't found a resource that gives good guidance on how big to bet the flop. I reckon this is where my hands start to go wild and end up as an all in.

Perhaps if anyone can give any pointers on appropriate flop bets. I have a habit of betting the pot amount, usually to close the hand but it can end up as an all in very quickly. I am going to start working on this straight away. Shouldn't people fold weak hands when faced with a big bet ? I get called and raised...

Thanks again.