Why not call 3-bets HU with pp's?

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Beasty2k

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Standard microstakes strategy advice seems to be to open pp's (or call to set mine, but for the sake of this thread let's just assume we are opening) pretty widely (6-max) but fold to 3-bets. Why?

Say we open 3x with 55 from MP and get 3-bet from unkown BTN, it folds around back to us. May not be a standard fold for everyone but still. Assume full stacks. We call, flop comes 35T. We c/r and won't be often be called by overpairs stacking off, not being able to fold? Leading flop is obviously an option depening on board.

Yes, we will be oop but not sure that matters as we are getting the implied odds to call preflop - the implied odds are an even bigger percent of effective stacks in a 3-bet pot since villain more often than not has a decent pocket pair which he can stack off with when we hit our set. His range is obv stronger in a 3-bet pot than a single raised pot.

In other words, we are MORE likely to get paid for our set in a 3-bet pot than a single raised pot. Yes he might have a higher set from time to time, but sets are rare and sets vs sets are even more rare!

And yes, we will miss our set often and have to fold. But he will miss AK/AQ sometimes too and we take down the pot after his cbet, still a decent profit.


Any thoughts? IP life becomes easier, we can float and steal but same theory should apply.
 
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Beasty2k

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changed typo

Beasty2k said:
Standard microstakes strategy advice seems to be to open pp's (or call to set mine, but for the sake of this thread let's just assume we are opening) pretty widely (6-max) but fold to 3-bets. Why?

Say we open 3x with 55 from MP and get 3-bet from unkown BTN, it folds around back to us. May not be a standard fold for everyone but still. Assume full stacks. We call, flop comes 35T. We c/r and won't we often be called by overpairs stacking off, not being able to fold? Leading flop is obviously an option depening on board.

Yes, we will be oop but not sure that matters as we are getting the implied odds to call preflop - the implied odds are an even bigger percent of effective stacks in a 3-bet pot since villain more often than not has a decent pocket pair which he can stack off with when we hit our set. His range is obv stronger in a 3-bet pot than a single raised pot.

In other words, we are MORE likely to get paid for our set in a 3-bet pot than a single raised pot. Yes he might have a higher set from time to time, but sets are rare and sets vs sets are even more rare!

And yes, we will miss our set often and have to fold. But he will miss AK/AQ sometimes too and we take down the pot after his cbet, still a decent profit.


Any thoughts? IP life becomes easier, we can float and steal but same theory should apply.
Click to expand...
 
micromachine

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Generally the effective stack sizes should be 15-20x (more like 20x) the amount you need to call to make set-mining profitable. This is not often the case unless the 3bet is small or you and villain are deep. You hit a set one in every 7.5 times on average, so why does the stack to call ratio need to be so big? Because lots of the time you won't get paid when you do hit your set. Either villain misses the flop totally and you get just the preflop pot or the preflop pot + a cbet, or villain has TPTK or an over-pair but keeps the pot small by pot controlling and folds if you start raising. Also, some of them time he will have a higher set or beat you with a different better hand.

Against maniac aggro fish who will stack off with any OK pair it's probably profitable to call 3bets to set-mine but against most players it wont be.
 
Loonbat

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Micro nailed it ... players need to put that 20-1 number in their head in order to make set-mining profitable from a mathematical standpoint. Most just look at the odds of flopping a set, however, and misinterpret from there.
 
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Beasty2k

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Thanks, I do agree on the math as well as the 15-20x. But I argue that this 15-20x gets smaller in a 3-bet pot for it to be profitable to call, as villain will be more likely to keep playing his strong hand fast (like an overpair). Maybe to 10-15x?

What I am trying to consider is that people are more "commited" in 3-bet pots, as ranges are much stronger (and tighter). So the 15-20x should come down.

Especially against a preflop nit who you think will stack off with an overpair ("I waited this long for a hand and now I am going to play it!"), surely calling a 3-bet to set mine with 100bb stacks is profitable?
 
LD1977

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I have reads on several players which say "fantastic for set mining" since they raise only KK+ and always stack off since they can't fold regardless of the board or action. I set mine with 10x comfortably and accept they sometimes they will get their flush or straight (I can still get FH in those cases).
 
micromachine

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Yeah, it depends who your opponent is. LAGs with PF 3bet stat of 10% are going to be missing the flop a lot and you won't get paid very often. You're right that set-mining is generally more profitable against tight ranges like against nits, but a lot of preflop nits are also postflop nits who know better than to stack off with overpairs and so they will often pot control and fold to c/raises etc. Maybe you can lower it to 15x vs the nitty PF 3bettors.
 
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Beasty2k

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micromachine said:
Yeah, it depends who your opponent is. LAGs with PF 3bet stat of 10% are going to be missing the flop a lot and you won't get paid very often. You're right that set-mining is generally more profitable against tight ranges like against nits, but a lot of preflop nits are also postflop nits who know better than to stack off with overpairs and so they will often pot control and fold to c/raises etc. Maybe you can lower it to 15x vs the nitty PF 3bettors.
Click to expand...
Thanks all, learned something today!
 
LD1977

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You also get OESD sometimes though and can stack off on the flop with around 40% equity (dead money might make it decent) or try to chkcall once if his sizing allows it and your pair is inside the OESD and not on the edge.
 
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baudib1

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small pocket pairs are probably the most misplayed/overrated hands in all of hold'em.

If villain is a nitfish who only 3-bets KK+ and never folds it postflop then you can profitably set mine.

However, if villain is 3-betting wider or can get away from big pairs then you have a serious problem of not getting paid enough, for instance, you have 55 on AK5 and they have QQ, or only getting action when you get super coolered.

Also if you're calling a cbet on or two or three streets on 723r with 55 you are no longer set-mining and you destroy your own odds.

At the same time if your flat 3-bet range is mostly a set-mining range then you will be super easy to exploit with any 2 cards because you are c/f flop almost 90% of the time. When your game is composed of c/f almost every flop and then suddenly C/R when you have a set you become pretty easy to play against even for ridiculously bad hand-readers.
 
Mr Sandbag

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Related but somewhat unrelated...

Heads up, yes, you probably need better than the odds of flopping a set for the call to be profitable, but if it is a multiway pot, isn't 10x the bet behind a profitable situation? We aren't going to win with the set 100% of the time and may get stacked by a better hand, but if it is a multiway pot, is that not off set by the potential to stack more than one player?
 
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floridapoker

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Can't really make decisions without stack sizes etc...I always try to put in an amount I'm comfy losing 9/10 times with smaller pairs if I don't think I can get my money in good preflop. Ill see a flop and check fold, fire hard with sets...it's a real easy style for more advanced players to beat cause they'll just jab at pots and by the time I catch them it's not worth it. But works great and is real stable strat at the lower levels against weaker players.
 
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swingro

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Mr Sandbag said:
Related but somewhat unrelated...

Heads up, yes, you probably need better than the odds of flopping a set for the call to be profitable, but if it is a multiway pot, isn't 10x the bet behind a profitable situation? We aren't going to win with the set 100% of the time and may get stacked by a better hand, but if it is a multiway pot, is that not off set by the potential to stack more than one player?
Click to expand...
The multyway pot is another whole story.

About HU. The fact is, setmining OP works against absolute nits but only at micros. At low stakes and higher it is another story. Even the nits will 3-bet you untill your nose is bleeding and will not pay off when you hit.
PS. All the story is about normal 3-bets not light 3-bets.
 
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bnasp2

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The biggest problem with set-mining in microstakes I see, that most ppl will fold to any raise you do. Its really hard to get paid for your set. You must be lucky to hit set and at the same time, villain needs to hit at least gutshot draw (and not complete it on turn :) )
 
LD1977

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No they won't. If anything people don't give a crap about raises especially if they are IP as in the situation we are discussing. Maybe they fold to turn cbet but flop chkraise gets called mega often.
 
RodneyC86

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bnasp2 said:
The biggest problem with set-mining in microstakes I see, that most ppl will fold to any raise you do. Its really hard to get paid for your set. You must be lucky to hit set and at the same time, villain needs to hit at least gutshot draw (and not complete it on turn :) )
Click to expand...

If they don't already hit a crap pair, they will hit that minimal gutshot A LOT because they love connectors.

Sets get paid off real easy at micros, and much much more so at nano stakes.

Raise the shit out of them I say, unless you have certain reads, or you got top set with overpairs being unlikely and board is dry.
 
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I have a question that sometimes gets me into trouble. If i have a middle pp, lets say 77 to JJ. If i don't hit set, or get an overpair, is it a fold against any aggresion (playing a decent player of course)? or maybe we can suppose the villian is making the standard cotinuation bet, and we should try to make him fold? So in conclusion, play set mining passively and fold if he fail to get the set?
 
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RNG

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I think people fold pairs way too easily and no you shouldnt just set mine all the time.
 
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If I'm allowed, Bill Hubbard (ain't no limit poker) wrote a small essay on set mining. It is the easiest to understand poker opinion I think I've ever read. You need to sign up for the email cause he is a coach. It is free, you'll just get some emails about his weekly coaching schedule and stuff like that.
 
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rumsey182

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Beasty2k said:
Standard microstakes strategy advice seems to be to open pp's (or call to set mine, but for the sake of this thread let's just assume we are opening) pretty widely (6-max) but fold to 3-bets. Why?

Say we open 3x with 55 from MP and get 3-bet from unkown BTN, it folds around back to us. May not be a standard fold for everyone but still. Assume full stacks. We call, flop comes 35T. We c/r and won't be often be called by overpairs stacking off, not being able to fold? Leading flop is obviously an option depening on board.

Yes, we will be oop but not sure that matters as we are getting the implied odds to call preflop - the implied odds are an even bigger percent of effective stacks in a 3-bet pot since villain more often than not has a decent pocket pair which he can stack off with when we hit our set. His range is obv stronger in a 3-bet pot than a single raised pot.

In other words, we are MORE likely to get paid for our set in a 3-bet pot than a single raised pot. Yes he might have a higher set from time to time, but sets are rare and sets vs sets are even more rare!

And yes, we will miss our set often and have to fold. But he will miss AK/AQ sometimes too and we take down the pot after his cbet, still a decent profit.


Any thoughts? IP life becomes easier, we can float and steal but same theory should apply.
Click to expand...
think more in terms of ranges and how your equity and their range works together it's not just a " i have x so i do y" type of thinking
 
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Beasty2k

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rumsey182 said:
think more in terms of ranges and how your equity and their range works together it's not just a " i have x so i do y" type of thinking
Click to expand...
But that was my point exactly - a 3bet pot tightens and strengthens his range and may make it harder for him to get away when we hit our set => implied odds go up as ranges tighten.
 
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LD1977 said:
I have reads on several players which say "fantastic for set mining" since they raise only KK+ and always stack off since they can't fold regardless of the board or action. I set mine with 10x comfortably and accept they sometimes they will get their flush or straight (I can still get FH in those cases).
Click to expand...

i agree definetely look for the 10 to 1 implied odds and it varies from player to player cuz some players you know arent going to pay off with any marginal hands. Your table image also has to play a factor do you only check raise with the nuts or do u ever do it as a bluff all this is going to make a difference on wether you get paid or not so keep that in mind cuz it could become a costly leak.
 
Aces2w1n

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Simple solution when playing microstakes and OOP.... Donk bet :) everytime you have something whether you've hit the board hard or a little, eventually you'll hook one! :) PPL won't know how to react and usually ppl will re-raise if they get annoyed and that's exactly what we like to see when we have flopped a set
 
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AcesUp747

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With full stacks I am setmining near 100% if there is a fish in the pot. Also if 3 bettor has an extremely narrow range that I can get paid if I hit my set, while also being able to fold my set if he hits bigger.

Super tight players will tell you when they have the mortal nuts. They shut down even with AA on a ragged board if you show aggression.
 
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