Originally Posted by themosthigh
So we flat in the blinds with say 99 flop comes out 278 we check standard tag makes a 2/3 cbet, Come back to us we raise, villain calls, turn comes a K? Now what? Just sounds to me like we're gonna be putting ourselves in miserables spots playing like this instead of saying "oh well we didn't hit our set" and just giving up the 4bbs. Anyone with a large database that can filter these spots and give us an idea of how profitable check raising these spots are would be appreciated. Even if we donk we will normally face a raise and be put back to the test.
This is a tricky situation to find yourself in, and how you handle it is very villain and flop texture dependent. I've had situations where my mid pocket pairs have made overpairs, or fell between the top card and Second Button. With low card, offsuited, unconnected flops, it's usually worth it to get in a raise OTF. If that doesn't work, then fire that second barrel.
(9, 9) with a 2, 7, 8 flop is going to be more problematic than if the flop fell: 2, 4, 8. The former flop could have made someone with (7, 8) Top Two. It could also keep in hands like (9, 8) (9, T) (9, J) -- all of which stop your set. The latter flop is less likely to keep such hands sticking around, and less likely to have produced a two pair.
You can't worry about over cards. If your opponent doesn't have a king, then a king on the turn is going to be as scary for him as it is for you. However, he doesn't have to know that. In many cases, a big card on the turn is a good thing
. If he doesn't have one, then you can put him to a hard call when you fire that second barrel at him. You might even be able to play him off a weak king. With the flop you gave, I'd be more concerned if the overcard was a T, J, or Q, as these are more likely to hit a straight draw.
Hands like this, and medium sized underpairs require a lot of judgement and "feel", and knowledge of how your opponent(s) typically play. Sometimes, you're good to go, and sometimes folding is the best play.