When to run it once, twice or thrice

#1 January 3rd, 2021, 8:37 PM

Hi all,
New to cash games here, and I've ran accross some situations where I have to decide to run it once, twice or thrice when all in.
Was wondering about the math behind it, when is it convinient to select twice or thrice?
I assume when you're 95% favorite you just want to run it once, but how about twice or thrice? But what's the threshold behind this feature, like if you are underdog with 33% equity you should request to run it twice or something like that? Of course I understand the other guy can decline, but what's the mathematical optimal choice here?

Thanks for your guidance!

#2 January 3rd, 2021, 9:41 PM

I'm about 99% sure it doesn't matter which option you pick. Assuming the cards in the deck are completely random, it shouldn't matter which option you chose since all three options have an equal chance of being any card left in the deck.

I think the options are there to make players feel like they're in control of the game - and if the choose the correct option of the three, (completing a flush draw or what have you) you've successfully just won yourself a pot. But other than that I think its something that has stuck around from tradition rather than practicality.

#3 January 3rd, 2021, 11:14 PM

Never run it twice

#4 January 3rd, 2021, 11:57 PM

Some like to run it twice to reduce variance in the hand in play. Typically I would never run it twice but there may be situations that dictate the proper decision would be to do just that.

#5 January 4th, 2021, 3:36 PM

Your EV stays the same but if you take big shots at cashgames you might want to run twice, because it tightens the odds of getting really unlucky.

#6 January 4th, 2021, 4:45 PM

As others have said it makes no difference to your EV. But you will lower your short term variance by running it more than once, which I think most people would see as a good thing.

#7 January 6th, 2021, 12:49 PM

Thank you all for your answers, but from my perspective, let's say I select to run it thrice before the flop and let's assume the other guy agrees to.
In the first run I miss, which means 5 cards that came out were not useful for me.
On the second run I miss too, which means another 5 cards taken out of the deck that were not useful.
Shouldn't this mean that on the third run, it's more likely for me to hit considering blank cards for me are already out of the deck, and thus I'm more likely to recover 1/3 of the pot?
Maybe I'm understanding this feature wrongly?

#8 January 6th, 2021, 1:02 PM

Originally Posted by SecksyGambler

I'm about 99% sure it doesn't matter which option you pick. Assuming the cards in the deck are completely random, it shouldn't matter which option you chose since all three options have an equal chance of being any card left in the deck.

I think the options are there to make players feel like they're in control of the game - and if the choose the correct option of the three, (completing a flush draw or what have you) you've successfully just won yourself a pot. But other than that I think its something that has stuck around from tradition rather than practicality.

Agreed. But if you run it more than once then there is a small % increase in your opponent equity since now there some X number of card are already out of the deck. I would usually run it more than once when I am on turn and river to reduce variance but it really doesn�t matter as you said.

#9 January 8th, 2021, 9:37 AM

Running it more than once makes no difference to your long term results, but it reduces short term variance, because then sometimes rather than winning or losing the pot you will split it. Reduced variance is good, if you have a limited bankroll and/or is prone to tilt when losing. Reasons to not run it more than once will be the exact opposite: That your opponent is prone to tilt when losing, so that maybe you can gain an advantage in future hands. Or maybe you are simply playing for fun and enjoy the excitement of winning (or losing) big pots.

I assume, we are talking about live poker here, and then the table dynamics will obviously also matter. If your opponent suggest to run it more than once and you decline, will he then perhaps reload and play poorly, if he loose? Or is he more likely to end his session early and go home and maybe even not come back again next week? In the latter case you certainly want to run it more than once, if he is a soft player / target, so that you increase the chance of keeping him in the game.

#10 January 8th, 2021, 11:04 AM

I don't like it... Just play as it is... But i amonline player mostly so use to that

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When to run it once, twice or thrice

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