re: Poker & When the poker gods hate you, how do you play?
Originally Posted by The_Pup
I am starting this post some distance from the topic, so bear with me. I have a diagnosis of bi-polar disorder, or manic depression as it used to be known. For years this caused me huge personal and emotional problems - the manic was great and productive, but the depression was bloody awful. I could see the signs of a depressive episode coming and would have all manner of strategies to deal with it until things turned up again and I could ride the joyous mania again.
This went on for years until out of the blue I had (or was given) a brilliant idea - don't focus on the depression, deal with the mania. So that's what I do - when I feel the euphoria coming on I rein it in a bit, slow down, don't overextend myself. And it works. Sure I still have BPD and still have depressions but they are manageable.
So, to poker. We tend to examine our bad runs, when our AK all in loses to AJ on AJ7 flop (me an hour ago) we examine our game, write posts here and so on. But when the same play against the same donkey brings a K on the turn we congratulate ourselves and look at the next hand. When we win a tourney it is often because our 60/40 chances have held up a few times on the trot and our steals were successful because they had junk. But because those plays paid off were they really good decisions? I know that when I make some sort of play and it works I tend to put it's success down to my superb poker ability; I then add it to my arsenal in the certain knowledge that it is a successful tactic in the long run. In reality, it worked because I got lucky once or twice.
If there is a moral to this rambling tale it is to not forget to look at how you play when you are on a winning streak - just because you win doesn't make the decisions good.
I hope things turn up for you soon, RoyalFish - at least it's only poker
This is what seems to happen to me which I've really started to catch on. I'll run really great, then slowly I'll start to fail, all because I'll be running good, then trying and doing new things, watching them work, then finding out the hard way that it was luck or something to that matter.
I think that is a huge weak point in most people is figuring out if what you did was actually good play or outright luck.
Also, having a HuD to me now is a absolute MUST have unless you can go about remembering the main variables you want to know about your player. With the stats I have, I can pretty much read players now, knowing what makes them fold, call, ect.
The point given is that its not always the luck/varience that is causing your bad beat, its simply you doing things that worked, but statistically doesn't in the long run.
Our minds seem to only wanna remember the very unimportant things, such as all the loses from playing AA, but hardly noticing how much more often AA has made you money than its lost.
Even if you play AA badly, it will STILL statiscally make you more money than it will lose. It will always have the highest chance of winning.