When to overbet the pot?

Hey guys. Ive been seeing posts stating that when people have near nuts or the nuts, they should overbet the pot on the micros because its the best way to extract value. Although Im all for value betting, I find that may villains are quick to fold even to a half pot bet, even ones I peg as loose. So in what situations should overbetting the pot work and against what kind of villains?

Overbetting only looks weak to good players...you wont run into many in the micros...I personally only overbet to run off a draw.

Its player dependant and has a lot to do with relative hand strength. If you have the nuts and you figure your opponent to have a very strong hand too then overbet. Some players are the biggest stations and love to bluff catch with their top pair/2 pair type hands. Overbet.

The other thing about the overbet is that you don't always need to be called to make it +ev. You can get called less frequently then you would if you had made a 3/4 pot sized bet and still have it be the more profitable play.

This applies strictly to the micros and is basically always for value. When you get into higher limits it has more to do with the meta game and balancing your range between nuts/air to try to achieve the most +ev play.

Why would you want to run off a draw? Sounds like a good way to lose money ^

I dont think you should be overbetting a lot at the micros, pot sized bets or just under seem to work the best for the most part in my experience. It all depends on what you're trying to get to call you, there are lots of loose guys though who will just not lay down top pair weak kicker or second pair to a bet of like 90% of the pot so there is no reason to not be betting big against a lot of guys.

Sometimes you are just putting your villain on weak hands and it may be better just to bet half pot or a third of the pot to eek out value, but you should really get good at getting max value before you start tailoring your bet sizes to squeeze out thin value, or you'll probably get into bad habits of missing shit tons of value betting too small all the time.

If villain is a huge fish, probably has a hand he will never fold, and we hold an absolute powerhouse on the river.

KsKs5s8c2c

We hold 88 the pot is $2, the effective stack sizes are $5. Villain is a 72/20 Station. I am shipping in my $5.

Deco said:

If villain is a huge fish, probably has a hand he will never fold, and we hold an absolute powerhouse on the river.

KsKs5s8c2c

We hold 88 the pot is $2, the effective stack sizes are $5. Villain is a 72/20 Station. I am shipping in my $5.

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Yes. Overbetting for value works extremely well when their are lots of relatively strong 2nd best hands your opponent can have. Another example, you have a boat on a 4-flush board. You can also do it with hands like TPTK against absolute stations but that requires a bit more of a read. One thing is for certain knowing when to overbet for value can have a HUGE effect on your WR.

Good question. For me this mostly comes down to player type and the dynamic between the villain and I.

Firstly, regarding the player type it is mostly fish who I will do this against. These types of players are level 1 thinkers. They just play according to the strength of their own hand. So if they like their hand they are going to continue. If they don't they won't. The bet sizing really doesn't apply so much.

This is why you shouldn't worry if they fold this time or that time. It had nothing to do with what you did. It had to do with their holdings. I have been advocating and having success with these bets for years. A lot of people have given me flack because they do not understand this point.

Also, this player type is more likely to view big bets and overbets as a bluff than any other. So you should do the exact opposite and show up with very strong hands. It kinda goes without saying but don't ever do this as a bluff.

Regarding the dynamic, I will be far more likely to overbet versus somebody when I have been pounding on them and winning a lot of pots lately. I know that they will be far less likely to give me credit and a big bet or overbet can often be the impetus to get them to flip out.

Hope this helps.

Thanks BlackRain. I was wondering what kind of players you define as fish in the micros. I try to tag players who are very loose with VPIP of 30+.

Almost everyone is a fish in the micros. A 12/10 can be a total fish who can't fold his AA/TPTK postflop despite the scariest board/action ever.

I suppose the play is never too advanced in the micros. I try to identify loose players because they are much more likely to call bets when I bet post flop since I tend to play quite aggressively when I have a hand (i sometimes c bet if the flop is dry and I have some outs but micros players just never fold and I value town myself). I know raising with almost atc against nits in the blinds also add up. However, Im not sure how to deal with TAGish players and just try to not get involved with them.

the looser players call more, so target them over regs.

best spot to over bet is when you have the nuts/near nuts, and the board is super wet so they're likely to have something good as well..

e.g. AJ on a K T 7 Q 8 board (made this up on the spot so..) villain, assuming they called 2 barrels so far, is likely to have a 2 pair hand a lot here.

I think that's right?

Yeah like the others said, bet bet bet when you are up against the fish and you think you have it. You'd be amazed what they'll call ya with. Do not give them too much credit for intelligence.

I had one guy bet/call my raise, call a turn bet, then the river shove with a pair of sixes that he rivered on a board of AKJJ6. (He had T6 and flopped a flush draw that he missed)

Obviously against the regs or those that seem like they know what they are doing, no need to do this unless you are sure they have a strong but worse hand than you.

ClubArrow77 said:

Thanks BlackRain. I was wondering what kind of players you define as fish in the micros. I try to tag players who are very loose with VPIP of 30+.

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Ya 30vpip bare minimum. I am usually looking for 40+. Another big factor is a large gap between their VPIP and PFR. This is usually a good indicator of a bad player. A 30/25 could be a decent player and is not worth sticking around for. A 30/5 is probably a losing player.

think you can overbet but you have to mix it up to not become preditable.hat way you will get value when the hand hit

Over betting works well if you have lag image. If you put a lot of pressure on your opponents, lots of raising, constantly playing pots people will get fed up with you. You start shoving river with monster hands you will find a few 'heros" in the bunch that must think u r bluffing. The people that know how to play will even be skeptical b/c u r so polarized, you have the nuts or K high. that may be good enough for medium hands to call you down. two weekends ago i saw a man literally shove 4 times for 3x the amount of what was in the pot. and orbit later some kid hero called him with QQ, the guy flipped nut flush. the guy called QQ down till he hit nut flush on river then shoved for double the pot. qq tank called

never with a bluff! lol:tongue:

skltlf said:

never with a bluff! lol:tongue:

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Actually it's usually a smaller mistake to bluff too large than it is to bluff too small.

Take an example where we have the nut low in a $100 pot and our opponent checks to us on the river. We think he'll fold 50% of the time if we bet 1/2 pot ($50), 75% if we bet pot ($100), and 80% if we bet $200. The EV for each bet is:

1/2 pot - $25
pot - $50
2xpot - $40

So while it's a mistake to bet $200 here it's less of a mistake than betting $50.

WVHillbilly said:

Actually it's usually a smaller mistake to bluff too large than it is to bluff too small.

Take an example where we have the nut low in a $100 pot and our opponent checks to us on the river. We think he'll fold 50% of the time if we bet 1/2 pot ($50), 75% if we bet pot ($100), and 80% if we bet $200. The EV for each bet is:

1/2 pot - $25
pot - $50
2xpot - $40

So while it's a mistake to bet $200 here it's less of a mistake than betting $50.

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Player dependant I'm more likely to call an overbet on some rivers rather than a value bet. I know this is situational but there's some spots where fish think overbet is the way to the $.

BluffYou123 said:

Player dependant I'm more likely to call an overbet on some rivers rather than a value bet. I know this is situational but there's some spots where fish think overbet is the way to the $.

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In my example I said exactly how often villain would call each bet. So yes, some people will call bigger bets and fold to small ones. Those people are generally losing players but they really have nothing to do with the example.

Wasn't discounting your point WV. I don't see many overbets and when I do, they're usually bluffs, that's what I was getting at.

Stakes? Generally when I see overbets it's the nuts or close to it.

my stakes are right now 2nl since thats all im rolled for. Im playing on Party which is generally considered to be looser and since FT is gone (they had the best software. party's is terrible).