When to chase your gutshot to nuts?

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boomeranged

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I always play my gutshot to nuts draw against multiple opponents as the payment of chasing has a good reward. However, I'd like to hear it from the community how they play their gutshots.
 
Beanfacekilla

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When to chase a gutshot....

You should take into consideration the read you have first. Does villain have a big hand? Based on his preflop and flop actions, will you get paid off if you hit? Is he just C-bet bluffing?

If you think he may not be that strong, perhaps a raise with the gutter-ball would be in order. However, if you feel villain never folds, there is no point in raising.

Also, consider board texture. Ideal spots are when the board is rainbow, and your gutter-ball is to the nuts (I know title does say this, but just to be sure, here it is). Don't chase a gutterball multi-way, if it's not to the nuts. Your gutter could hit someone else too.

Another consideration would be the action pending on current street (flop, let's just say). You probably shouldn't be calling it off with villains behind you that haven't acted yet. You can get into a tough spot if someone raises, and you would be forced to fold (terrible) or call (even more terrible).

So, to sum up:
  • Heads up or last to call postflop
  • Rainbow board
  • Gutter to the nuts (other gutters perhaps HU if villain has a narrow range, that a gutter will certainly beat)
  • Great implied odds; villain is strong, and both of you are deep.
Places not to chase gutter:
  • Multiple villains behind you
  • Multi-way with flush draw on board
  • Monotone boards
  • Paired boards - proceed with extreme caution (or not at all).
  • Poor implied odds, villain or you have too few chips
And last, but certainly not least....
Realize that gutter-balls are pretty tough to hit. 4 outs, like 9% +/- if you see one more card.

Implied odds should certainly be well over 10x to make it profitable. Say like 15x+ inplied odds, and that is assuming villain is going to stack off.

That is all I have to say. If anyone else has other things to add, please do so.
 
dimon4ik89

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The probability that the street will open is:

The probability that the street will open is:
- having a gutshot from the flop will open a straight on the turn - 8.5%;
- having a gutshot with a flop open a straight on the river - 16.5%;
- Having a gutshot on the turn will open a straight on the river - 8.5%.
For a double gutshot, the probability of making a straight is exactly the same as for a two-sided straight draw:
- from flop on the turn - 17%;
- from flop to river - 31.5%;
- from turn to river - 17%
The likelihood of collecting straight, having a gutshot, is rather small, it's very problematic to play gutshots profitably. In order to win, having a gutshot, you should always calculate the total number of outs.
 
NCDaddy

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all about pot odds and implied odds. If those are in your favor chances are it's good to chase a bit
 
PuletJelek

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When I chase gutshot to nuts draw against loose aggressive players i'll pay as cheap as possible to see next card, if against tight and weak players i'll try to bluff them and also hoping my card comes. Espesially nuts draw, i do all in sometimes. Don't forget to use pot odds and card odds.
 
blueskies

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Yep if villain is a dude who never lays down top pair or better regardless of action then go for it.

Against halfway intelligent villains, it's best to chuck those gutshots.

Now if you are very deep stacked and you wanna set up a fishy image early on so you can get'em later, then it's ok to show down your missed gutshot draw. Just be sure to show your cards at the end.
 
Stuey

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You guys don't know what you're talking about. Any gutshot is 11:1 dog. In NL you cannot ever get the correct price to chase 4 outs.
I'm surprised that you guys even take this subject serious and getting in details for when and when not to chase a GS. What a joke ..,

But, you know what? - Keep on doing and keep on making the game profitable for me.
 
shinedown.45

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You guys don't know what you're talking about. Any gutshot is 11:1 dog. In NL you cannot ever get the correct price to chase 4 outs.
I'm surprised that you guys even take this subject serious and getting in details for when and when not to chase a GS. What a joke ..,

But, you know what? - Keep on doing and keep on making the game profitable for me.
Shhhh....
Don't tap the tank.

These members are here to learn, those who chase too often think they have to, based on what they see on tv.

Stuey is right, chasing a gutshot loses in the long run more times than they win.
 
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braveslice

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When to chase a gutshot....

Nice writing, I learned a lot thx.

Small warning is that against agro we (I do at least) sometimes try to incorrectly find all reasons to call, gut without logical reasoning should not be one of these hands.
 
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Beanfacekilla

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You guys don't know what you're talking about. Any gutshot is 11:1 dog. In NL you cannot ever get the correct price to chase 4 outs.
I'm surprised that you guys even take this subject serious and getting in details for when and when not to chase a GS. What a joke ..,

But, you know what? - Keep on doing and keep on making the game profitable for me.


Some of the biggest pots I have won were turning gutters to the nuts, and some unsuspecting person just shoveling money into the pot with a loser man. 200bb or more.


I raise with them too, and fold people out a fair amount who are just c betting air.


Keep doing what you're doing brah.... make the game more profitable for me.
 
Bozovicdj

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When to chase a gutshot....

You should take into consideration the read you have first. Does villain have a big hand? Based on his preflop and flop actions, will you get paid off if you hit? Is he just C-bet bluffing?

If you think he may not be that strong, perhaps a raise with the gutter-ball would be in order. However, if you feel villain never folds, there is no point in raising.

Also, consider board texture. Ideal spots are when the board is rainbow, and your gutter-ball is to the nuts (I know title does say this, but just to be sure, here it is). Don't chase a gutterball multi-way, if it's not to the nuts. Your gutter could hit someone else too.

Another consideration would be the action pending on current street (flop, let's just say). You probably shouldn't be calling it off with villains behind you that haven't acted yet. You can get into a tough spot if someone raises, and you would be forced to fold (terrible) or call (even more terrible).

So, to sum up:
  • Heads up or last to call postflop
  • Rainbow board
  • Gutter to the nuts (other gutters perhaps HU if villain has a narrow range, that a gutter will certainly beat)
  • Great implied odds; villain is strong, and both of you are deep.
Places not to chase gutter:
  • Multiple villains behind you
  • Multi-way with flush draw on board
  • Monotone boards
  • Paired boards - proceed with extreme caution (or not at all).
  • Poor implied odds, villain or you have too few chips
And last, but certainly not least....
Realize that gutter-balls are pretty tough to hit. 4 outs, like 9% +/- if you see one more card.

Implied odds should certainly be well over 10x to make it profitable. Say like 15x+ inplied odds, and that is assuming villain is going to stack off.

That is all I have to say. If anyone else has other things to add, please do so.

I almost completely agree on what is said here. I would only add that, what is stated about reading opponents first and board texture and what to do if you feel that opponent is weak, doesn't apply to gut shot situations only, but in general.
Also, I wouldn't recommend playing it too often or at least playing it differently, since, if you show same lines every time, will be figured out, and become susceptible to re-raises placing you in difficult position not knowing if opponent is bluffing or not.
Personally, I try not to lose my head playing them, don't really bluff a lot with gut shots since, most of the times, even if you hit a gutter it doesn't win you that much money to cover the risks you are taking. Also I almost never play it out of position, so that I can try and represent a hand on the turn/river if needed.
 
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In most of the cases I don't chase for gutshots ... But there is sense when you are on big stack vs another big stack or you have +flush outs.
 
MattRyder

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I rarely chase anything against the odds, which a gutshot almost always is. That said, I will call (or sometimes raise) a small c-bet by a loose player who has a high c-betting rate, especially if there are also some possible backdoor draws in the works. Of course, I'm not really chasing in this scenario so much as setting up a bluff (against a bluff) with a long-shot possibility of actually making a hand.
 
drolin

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When the villain has many chips to put in the pot after hitting your card.
 
Mikeisanace777

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no suited mandatory

I make sure I play a hands like 89 offsuit or 56 offsuit always as described not suited. I wait for monster flops like 2-3-K or 6-7-A always rainbowish. I call big bets in position or out and sometimes even bet the flop utg cause everyone folds or one guys calls with say k high cause often a bet on the turn signifies I have an ace when I really just have a gutty and he folds. Being non suited doesn't crush me to run out flushes or better made flushes and this way it's to the nuts. In a nl game a hand like 56 on the 2-3-K board can be great when the turn comes a blank 4 which give me the nuts so I can check call a good bet and hope he catches 2 pair or trips as most nl players wont play weak kings he then most likely has q-k-ak-k9 or k-10 good hands you checked the turn he shoves and take it all. In a limit game I simply bet the turn and check call the river as peoples ranged are wide and will play king any and can fill up cheaply.
 
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I do not chase after the flop

I either hit or I don't.
Too many times I have tested the waters only to be in misbelief again that I can't hit a damn open ended straight.
I will however call you if you dare to bet this way. I like people who chase. It's like seeing a real nice bass come out of the water. If catch you trying, I feel for you.
The one that get me are the suited connector beaters who go all in and hit a full house or three of a kind.
It reminds me of basketball. You start out with a specific play in mind to find out it is the madness that wins.:D
 
AshK44

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I always play my gutshot to nuts draw against multiple opponents as the payment of chasing has a good reward. However, I'd like to hear it from the community how they play their gutshots.



There are a lot of answers with statistics and that is my weak point...statistics. It’s interesting to read and I hope to improve in this area. For the more beginner player I would approach it in this fashion...

Consider my stack size against all players in play.

Consider the stage of the tournament (If in a tournament)

Consider my opponents likeliness of bluffing

That’s how I would measure taking the risk or not.
 
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from the sklansky book he says that you should chase a gunshot to its end %100 of the time, and the pot odds at 1$/2$ outweigh the waste of money in chasing it.
 
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