What sorcery is this??? 25nl and the red line

Yeah I know, 25nl is supposed to be where the red line will start to matter more and boy am I getting shredded on that aspect. Sure small sample size but I lost the red line over several hundred hands, not insignificant. Death by a hundred cuts you could say?



I still don't see how anyone can get a red line to even BE at these stakes. People call a lot still! But I'm certain i saw many people put up graphs of a positive red line at 25nl.

Maybe I'll post marginal hands that I folded like a nit here?

Also, anyone got a guide on notetaking?

Honestly, I still wouldn't worry about your red line. What's your w$wsf?

Guide on notetaking... there's a ton of that in my free ebook. Pretty much all of chapter 5.

The only line that matters is the green one. Focus on making as many correct decisions as possible. Some styles lend themselves more to different line distrbutions - a particularly laggy style will be more bluff heavy. This player may win more pots without showdown, but will lose MORE at showdown when players hero more often etc. Just work on improving your game and playing more volume and the rest will follow.

From a learner to a learner.

I think you should play a bit more aggressive based on your graph or else you are going to get massacred.

Thats all i can say. Would love to see your stats. whats ur AF?


I have the opposite problem. I am struggling to make my red line go down.

Fcbt %
Tcbet %
?

I'm replying on the fly so I can't see my HUD stats, but last I remember I cbet like 65pct and fold to cbet about 45 pct. AF around 3.5

I have a shitty w$wsf though. Can't remember but it's at the bottom end

RodneyC86 said:

I'm replying on the fly so I can't see my HUD stats, but last I remember I cbet like 65pct and fold to cbet about 45 pct. AF around 3.5

I have a shitty w$wsf though. Can't remember but it's at the bottom end

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My af is lower but my red line is higher. Are you sure its that high?(3.5)?

vinylspiros said:

My af is lower but my red line is higher. Are you sure its that high?(3.5)?

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It's at least 3

How often are you doubling?

WVHillbilly said:

How often are you doubling?

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This I have to check...a blur but something like upper 30s? Honestly don't remember.

RodneyC86 said:

This I have to check...a blur but something like upper 30s? Honestly don't remember.

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Seems a bit low. My cbet is 78% and my turn cbet is 45%. You need to get them to give up small pp's and A high floats a bit more for a better red line.

Also you may be playing a bit too much OOP which makes it harder to barrel?

Blobweird123 said:

Seems a bit low. My cbet is 78% and my turn cbet is 45%. You need to get them to give up small pp's and A high floats a bit more for a better red line.

Also you may be playing a bit too much OOP which makes it harder to barrel?

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Still away from my desktop....
Yeah I think that's a very valid point, a lot of times I give up the flop with a K high hand and get edged out by A high after checking the river. These would definitely fold double barrel. Happens more when I'm OOP obviously.
I really don't do OOP plays a lot though, in fact leakbuster says I'm TOO positionally aware, which it says shouldn't be a deal at all at these stakes, and even at 100/200nl

Assuming you're playing a relatively tight range pre, you should be cbetting the turn more than 35%.

Dug out my 25nl stats. My AF is a bit on the high side atm prolly d/t variance...

I'm usually running around 3.5 over 100k hands in 10nl.

2.2k hands so far...

VPIP/PFR 18.9/15.7 (lower than my 10nl, i suppose i'm a bit turned off by blinds being 2.5x larger....despite a fairly nitty BR management)

3bet 3.28 (Mine's 5% ish at 10nl, again same issue?)

Fold 3bet about 80 pct!!! damn, variance? or me being scared?

WTSD 20.3%
WWSF 44.5
AF 4.61
Agg% 33.7
Flop agg 39.4
Turn Agg 26.5%
Flop Cbet 68%
Turn Cbet 41.2 pct
Flop fold vs cbet 56.4%
Steal pct 32.8
Button UO PFR 42.7%

25NL onwards is really when my position started to matter alot more.
and I had to use my head. becoming stats orientated I think made me exploitable at 50NL

having the balls to float more hands take into account my image as per table,

switching gears, targetting the loose fish when in position for a while and then using the image I've created to start making unorthadox plays to my image against the regs, 3-betting and floating boards, semi bluffing, which usually results in a higher success rate for a spell of time

and then adapting back into collection mode,solid hands in position/maybe play suited connectors/1gappers for cheap higher than 78s.

RodneyC86 said:

Dug out my 25nl stats. My AF is a bit on the high side atm prolly d/t variance...

I'm usually running around 3.5 over 100k hands in 10nl.

2.2k hands so far...

VPIP/PFR 18.9/15.7 (lower than my 10nl, i suppose i'm a bit turned off by blinds being 2.5x larger....despite a fairly nitty BR management)

3bet 3.28 (Mine's 5% ish at 10nl, again same issue?)

Fold 3bet about 80 pct!!! damn, variance? or me being scared?

WTSD 20.3%
WWSF 44.5
AF 4.61
Agg% 33.7
Flop agg 39.4
Turn Agg 26.5%
Flop Cbet 68%
Turn Cbet 41.2 pct
Flop fold vs cbet 56.4%
Steal pct 32.8
Button UO PFR 42.7%

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Can already tell from this some huge issues... Vpip and pfr are way too low, you need to open up your ranges way more. Your 3b is jokes small too, so I bet you're getting like 0 action. This needs to be up at at least 7/8% imo. Even if you just 3b AK, JJ+ and ATC in the blinds vs late pos opens that F3b 70%+ and one and done missed flops you'll achieve this. Not only is this mathematically printing money, but you'll get more action on your actual hands.

Honestly, the rest of the stats are fine though. I really think that this is a matter of villains being able to say with 99% certainty what boards you have/haven't hit.

If you don't want to open up your range, then abuse your image. Raise all your draws BIG on the turn when you're IP facing a double barrel, raise when paint cards peel, really use that low vpip/pfr image to your advantage vs villains that will notice (taking into account their ranges in those spots aswell of course)

JCgrind said:

Can already tell from this some huge issues... Vpip and pfr are way too low, you need to open up your ranges way more. Your 3b is jokes small too, so I bet you're getting like 0 action. This needs to be up at at least 7/8% imo. Even if you just 3b AK, JJ+ and ATC in the blinds vs late pos opens that F3b 70%+ and one and done missed flops you'll achieve this. Not only is this mathematically printing money, but you'll get more action on your actual hands.

Honestly, the rest of the stats are fine though. I really think that this is a matter of villains being able to say with 99% certainty what boards you have/haven't hit.

If you don't want to open up your range, then abuse your image. Raise all your draws BIG on the turn when you're IP facing a double barrel, raise when paint cards peel, really use that low vpip/pfr image to your advantage vs villains that will notice (taking into account their ranges in those spots aswell of course)

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Played my usual night session today. I read your post before i went on of course.

Included more suited blocker type hands as my 3bet bluff range and it seemed to work alright for me today. I guess I got haunted by the variance monster the previous 2k hands, it would seem like I get 4bet nearly every time my 3bet is a bluff. I suppose I'm an idiot for not putting it on variance first but rather think my opponent can soul read a vacuum.

Today, made back all my buy ins sans half. I must say, monsters still do get paid off tonnes when you value bet relentlessly
Also, today I adjusted my opening range to have a 'flatter' profile across the board, mainly my observation that my UTG open almost never gets action and when it does they are set miners which needless to say put my big hands on spot real bad a lot. I put in some defensive hands in suited connectors to be opened UTG that I can either flop good vs a set so that i can stack off or just throw away without much difficulty.

Down 1.5 Buy ins today, a lot of bopping up and down today....I was actually nicely breakeven (which I am VERY happy with since I'm new to this level), until this....I honestly expected pocket 4s...but not this!!!

poker stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2338963
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): $25.14 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 16, 3B: 5, AF: 3.5, Hands: 113166
MP: $20.00 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 31, 3B: 13, AF: 6.5, Hands: 64
CO: $26.27 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 14, 3B: 5, AF: 0.8, Hands: 219
BTN: $36.58 - VPIP: 53, PFR: 24, 3B: 14, AF: 1.7, Hands: 17
SB: $17.56 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 5, 3B: 0, AF: 0.3, Hands: 21
BB: $26.26 - VPIP: 34, PFR: 25, 3B: 6, AF: 16.0, Hands: 64

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with 2 2
Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, CO calls $0.75, 2 folds, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.35) 4 A K (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.00, CO calls $2, BB folds

Turn: ($6.35) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $5.00, CO raises to $14, Hero raises to $22.39, CO calls $8.39

River: ($51.13) Q (2 players)


SPOILER





























Dude showed ACES for top set! How the hell am i supposed to avoid this? I much rather put this guy on AK

When a guy that passive raises the turn, bottom set is pretty likely to be no good. Obviously wouldn't expect AA/KK there but it is VERY likely that you're beat.

WVHillbilly said:

When a guy that passive raises the turn, bottom set is pretty likely to be no good. Obviously wouldn't expect AA/KK there but it is VERY likely that you're beat.

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I discounted AA KK which is the problem. I pretty much have it dead on him either pocket 4s or AK, which has like 9 comboes vs 3, that's why i felt like I had to ship the turn

x_x...

Honestly you probably should be discounting AK too.

WVHillbilly said:

Honestly you probably should be discounting AK too.

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That's one bold statement. I don't think .....argh i'm exasperated.
Why?

The way it's played, the call preflop against a utg raise, AK makes the most sense besides 44.

Maybe cause I say his 5% 3bet and figured there's no way he won't 3bet AA/KK?

Well you only have 200 hands on him, so the 3bet stat is probably only out of 20 to 40 opportunities. And in any case, 5% 3b would suggest he's probably 3betting AK pre there at least sometimes. Also, when a nit starts waking up like this, you should try not to discount strong hands that you expect would 3b pre, since some players will flat pre with strong hands. It's usually a mistake, but that doesn't mean people don't do it.

Up 3 buy ins today, so bringing me to 1 buyin up since i started off at 25nl and already nearing the 6k hands mark (small sample yada yada, i know i know)

Donking out hand of the day , i promise i won't make this a habit


Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2339869
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $25.32 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 4, AF: 2.7, Hands: 425
SB: $57.35 - VPIP: 50, PFR: 31, 3B: 8, AF: 1.6, Hands: 36
Hero (BB): $85.96 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 16, 3B: 5, AF: 3.5, Hands: 114484
UTG: $28.64 - VPIP: 42, PFR: 17, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 24
MP: $25.00 - VPIP: 28, PFR: 19, 3B: 12, AF: 0.8, Hands: 137
CO: $25.00 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 14, 3B: 7, AF: 5.3, Hands: 192

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with Q T
UTG raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, CO calls $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, SB calls $0.65, Hero raises to $4.25, 1 fold, MP calls $3.50, CO calls $3.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($15.00) K J T (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, CO checks

Turn: ($15.00) 9 (3 players)
Hero bets $10.75, MP folds, CO raises to $20.75, Hero calls $10

River: ($56.50) 7 (2 players)

RodneyC86 said:

That's one bold statement. I don't think .....argh i'm exasperated.
Why?

The way it's played, the call preflop against a utg raise, AK makes the most sense besides 44.

Maybe cause I say his 5% 3bet and figured there's no way he won't 3bet AA/KK?

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Yeah, I just meant if we take 5% as his actual 3bet range he's almost always going to be 3betting AK. Obviously we now know he will at least occasionally flat really strong hands but absent that knowledge we should be discounting pretty much everything other than 44 based on the way he played the hand.

Don't get me wrong, I don't fold bottom set pretty much ever but if there is a place for it this looks like it.