What does a Bad Swing look like in a graph?

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Daithi

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So a bad swing can hit for several thousand hands, even several ten thousand they say, yikes!

I just wonder how exactly does it manifest in the graph. Does is always exhibit the same traits?

So the apparent one would be that Net Win and All-in EV are way out of whack, Net Win being lower in the negative of course. No brainer.


But can it manifest, and I believe it can, in All-in EV and Net Win not so much out of whack and more co-ordinated. For example, sets over sets; board or 4 card flushes vs 2 pair; house over house. I would certainly consider those mainly running bad, of course there is play involved too.

My point is that everyone likes to think that they are running bad (even though they might be just playing bad) and they may oftentimes be right. It is however, very difficult to see it in the graph sometimes, as All-in EV doesn't tell much about coolers.

Is there a good way to tell a running bad session(s) from playing like shit sessions by looking at the graph?
 
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Marginal

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You are absolutely correct.

The only true way to tell if you ran bad or played bad is really just to review the session after. See if you are happy with the plays youve made, discuss tough spots with others and see if they agree with the lines youve taken.

EV lines are misleading but just continue to review and youd get your answer.
 
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Daithi

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Thanks, just what I'd though :)
 
starting_at_the_bottom

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Something like this I guess.
 

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Simplex

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If a "bad downstring " occurs over the course of several thousand hands, I would say the player is playing badly. If this downswing still exists over the course of tens of thousands of hands, I would say this is just a bad player and should probably find a new game. I might suggest checkers, tic-tac-toe, or possibly hide and go seek.
 
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freestocks

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Sometimes running bad turns into playing bad.
 
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Marginal

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If a "bad downstring " occurs over the course of several thousand hands, I would say the player is playing badly. If this downswing still exists over the course of tens of thousands of hands, I would say this is just a bad player and should probably find a new game. I might suggest checkers, tic-tac-toe, or possibly hide and go seek.

#understandspoker
 
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Daithi

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If a "bad downstring " occurs over the course of several thousand hands, I would say the player is playing badly. If this downswing still exists over the course of tens of thousands of hands, I would say this is just a bad player and should probably find a new game. I might suggest checkers, tic-tac-toe, or possibly hide and go seek.

Really? Some Pros have said it can last that long.
 
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MinhANguyen

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If a "bad downstring " occurs over the course of several thousand hands, I would say the player is playing badly. If this downswing still exists over the course of tens of thousands of hands, I would say this is just a bad player and should probably find a new game. I might suggest checkers, tic-tac-toe, or possibly hide and go seek.

Lol. Guess we all need to quit and play checkers then. Downswings are much more common than you expect, whether you're playing your A-game or not.
 
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Rumme1

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Really? Some Pros have said it can last that long.

Pros talk out their asses, and say things to entice fish to come into poker.

good luck swings can last years, and so can bad luck strings...

LUCK DOES NOT EVEN OUT PERFECTLY OVER THE LONGTERM, FOR ALL POKER PLAYERS. ..even though some pros claim it does, they are lying.

I personally went thru several years of good luck, with solid wins..then all of a sudden it stopped cold , and has never returned like it once was. I ran very bad for years, but my discipline and money management allowed me to greatly limit the losses most people would have incurred with such a bad run of luck. In fact, I ran so bad, with cold cards and bad beats for so long, I completely quit the game for 3-4 months at a time..then I would go back and try again for a few weeks . If the bad luck was still there , id take more time off. IMHO , this was the best way for me to not only limit my bad luck losses, but also take the frustrations out of the game when cards run so cold for so long.
 
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Daithi

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Pros talk out their asses, and say things to entice fish to come into poker.

good luck swings can last years, and so can bad luck strings...

LUCK DOES NOT EVEN OUT PERFECTLY OVER THE LONGTERM, FOR ALL POKER PLAYERS. ..even though some pros claim it does, they are lying.

I personally went thru several years of good luck, with solid wins..then all of a sudden it stopped cold , and has never returned like it once was. I ran very bad for years, but my discipline and money management allowed me to greatly limit the losses most people would have incurred with such a bad run of luck. In fact, I ran so bad, with cold cards and bad beats for so long, I completely quit the game for 3-4 months at a time..then I would go back and try again for a few weeks . If the bad luck was still there , id take more time off. IMHO , this was the best way for me to not only limit my bad luck losses, but also take the frustrations out of the game when cards run so cold for so long.

I am quite confused about your statement. Because you say it isn't true because Pros said, but then you confirm it is true by your own experience. Unless I read it wrong or something.:confused::angel:
 
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6bet me

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Pros talk out their asses, and say things to entice fish to come into poker.

good luck swings can last years, and so can bad luck strings...

LUCK DOES NOT EVEN OUT PERFECTLY OVER THE LONGTERM, FOR ALL POKER PLAYERS. ..even though some pros claim it does, they are lying.

I personally went thru several years of good luck, with solid wins..then all of a sudden it stopped cold , and has never returned like it once was. I ran very bad for years, but my discipline and money management allowed me to greatly limit the losses most people would have incurred with such a bad run of luck. In fact, I ran so bad, with cold cards and bad beats for so long, I completely quit the game for 3-4 months at a time..then I would go back and try again for a few weeks . If the bad luck was still there , id take more time off. IMHO , this was the best way for me to not only limit my bad luck losses, but also take the frustrations out of the game when cards run so cold for so long.

To be fair, you play live poker, so you're going to see far fewer hands per hour and therefore the swings will appear to last longer.

If a bad downswing lasts 15k hands and you're only playing 30 hands per hour, then that swing will last you 500 hours. That's 20 hours per week for 6 months! Such is the life of a live poker player.
 
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Rumme1

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You are absolutely correct.

The only true way to tell if you ran bad or played bad is really just to review the session after. See if you are happy with the plays youve made, discuss tough spots with others and see if they agree with the lines youve taken.

EV lines are misleading but just continue to review and youd get your answer.

In 32 years of live cash play { mid - hi stakes] the worst run I ever had in 1 session, involved me losing $ 3200 in a pot limit game. The irony of this session is, I played one of the BEST poker sessions of my life. Everytime I got all my money in, I was ahead of the hand, and a favorite to win. This happened to me about 2 years ago . I even had a poker veteran who sat next to me in this session { who was the best player at the table, and has played for 50 years and made a living in poker } tell me he never saw any player go on a 24 hour bad run, like I did. I tell you , it was the most disgusting bad luck streak you could imagine. I even tried sitting in 3 different seat in the course of the 24 hour session, and still got the bad beats in every seat.

Nowdays , I evaluate my luck factor and skill factor very easily.

I look back on each poker session I play and take note of how much I won or lost. Then I take note of the hands I lost, and ask myself, if I lost it to a bad beat , or my bad playing or me making a bad call on river with my weaker hand. Most of the time, my losses are due to bad beats , which is impossible to stop from happeneing . If this bad luck cycle continues on for weeks/ months, the only way I combat it effectively, is to stop playing poker for up to 3 months at a time.

I have had good luck runs that lasted years...and I have bad luck runs that lasted years . The key to money management is making the most money you can when you are on good luck runs, and losing the least you can, when you are on bad luck runs.
 
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Rumme1

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To be fair, you play live poker, so you're going to see far fewer hands per hour and therefore the swings will appear to last longer.

If a bad downswing lasts 15k hands and you're only playing 30 hands per hour, then that swing will last you 500 hours. That's 20 hours per week for 6 months! Such is the life of a live poker player.

agreed....internet poker will allow many more hands played in a certain time session .

however...i still disagree that EVERY poker player has the exact same amount of good luck and bad luck, over the course of long term or :

10,000 hands played

100,000 hands played

1,000,000 hands played

There is not a good luck bad luck god, that looks down upon poker players, and decides to give all of us the exact same amount of luck in gambling.

Now, this is just my strong opinion with 32 years of live cash poker playing. My opinion is formed from being involved with countless styles of live players , over decades of play , and taking note that a select few players seem to have a much higher degree of good luck { handing out bad beats , calling huge bets with wrong pot odds, and hitting , poor playing and still winning , etc } then other players at the table.....and this isnt in the short term of a months worth of play.
 
RogueRivered

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So why did you call his river bet? There looked to be an obvious straight on the board. Basically, I'd say that if he knew he would double up because you were calling no matter what, he made a slightly bad move. Otherwise, if he would expect you to fold to his all-in after he made a straight, it was a pretty bad call.

It's just one game, though. It's not going to do anything to your graph if you have a decent number of hands in it. This sort of thing happens all the time -- don't worry about it. Like I always say, if it bothers you to lose that much at once, move down.
 
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Daithi

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Or this just happened, my 5th hand in the session and this happens. Of course in the Graph EV is 0, so you won't see this as bad run when clearly it is. Tilting on the beginning of the session is not good :).
You might argue about my River Bet here. But I found the str8 so unlikely over 2 pairs or smaller set that I Value Betted there. Sick!

http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/7529474
 
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Daithi

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So why did you call his river bet? There looked to be an obvious straight on the board. Basically, I'd say that if he knew he would double up because you were calling no matter what, he made a slightly bad move. Otherwise, if he would expect you to fold to his all-in after he made a straight, it was a pretty bad call.

It's just one game, though. It's not going to do anything to your graph if you have a decent number of hands in it. This sort of thing happens all the time -- don't worry about it. Like I always say, if it bothers you to lose that much at once, move down.

Because The River was offering 4:1. Pot was €8.89and he had like €2.95. Of course I was reluctant about the call and wasn't happy about it. I have to disagree with you that it was a bad call considering how shallow he was, therefore the odds.
 
RogueRivered

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Because The River was offering 4:1. Pot was €8.89and he had like €2.95. Of course I was reluctant about the call and wasn't happy about it. I have to disagree with you that it was a bad call considering how shallow he was, therefore the odds.

I meant his was a bad call on the turn, unless he knew he would make a straight and you would call him all-in. Of course, most of the time he isn't going to make a straight, so it's still a bad call. I'm just saying why pay him off on the few times he gets lucky? You should be happy you got him to make a bad call on the turn. In the long run, you will win money from players like that.

The way he played it is one of the advantages of having a short stack. People will call you with worse hands because they know their loss will be capped by your stack. They look at the odds and say, "I can't possibly fold here" and the short stack gets paid off for making a bad call earlier. Don't you think he knew you would call due to the odds? If he didn't have it, that's pretty stupid of him to go all-in there.
 
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Daithi

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I meant his was a bad call on the turn, unless he knew he would make a straight and you would call him all-in. Of course, most of the time he isn't going to make a straight, so it's still a bad call. I'm just saying why pay him off on the few times he gets lucky? You should be happy you got him to make a bad call on the turn. In the long run, you will win money from players like that.

The way he played it is one of the advantages of having a short stack. People will call you with worse hands because they know their loss will be capped by your stack. They look at the odds and say, "I can't possibly fold here" and the short stack gets paid off for making a bad call earlier. Don't you think he knew you would call due to the odds? If he didn't have it, that's pretty stupid of him to go all-in there.

Oh ok. I agree with you about the short stacks. But they have to be played right as well. They need to be shoved by the turn or Flop if you think you are ahead against a drawing hand, denying Implied Odds. Also that depends how shallow you are 20-40bb, 60bb you must be more careful.

About paying him off. So if there was an open ended I would be even more reluctant to call, but still would under those particular circumstances. But it was just a gut shot. I think he thought he was ahead with his 99 until Turn. He then realised hit might hit his straight as well, and he did. He was only 16% on the Turn, if not less.

To be honest with such SPR on the River (and yes, I know it is calculated on Flop for hand planning) a lot of micro players would just shove OOP with any pair hoping that they will take it down , as it it is meaningless to keep such a small stack.

I knew of course that he had very like made the straight. With those Odds I could afford to be wrong twice. As I said it was only a gutshot.
 
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