Weird turn decision with KQs

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Rafael Chow

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I was playing very agressively before this hand happened, so I thought that my perceived opening range was really wide, around 40% of the overall range.

*** PREFLOP ***[KS,QS]
Player 4 : Folds
HERO : Raises 0.06$
Player 8 : Folds
Player 9 (SB): Calls 0.05$
Player 1 : Folds
*** FLOP ***[2C,KC,5S]
Player 9 : Checks
HERO : Bets 0.10$
Player 9 : Calls 0.10$
*** TURN ***[2C,KC,5S,QC]
Player 9 : Checks
HERO : Bets 0.20$
Player 9 : Raises 0.65$
HERO : Folds
Player 9 : Uncalled bet 0.45$
Player 9 : Wins 0.71$

Villain just called from the sb and due to his stats (13/10/33(39)) and his 16 bbs stack size I do not assume he is a fish. I put him on the TAG side of the spectrum.

So I put him on a range that includes pairs (77+), some suited broadways and nutted stuff (he is very likely to play AA and KK this way because, as I have so many bluffs in my range, my fold_vs_3bet is going to be huge in this situation).

The flop comes K25 with the flush draw. I c-bet for value (standard) and he calls.
Due to his stats, I thought that are only flushdraws, a Kx type of hand and sets. So my plan was to check again on the turn when a non club nor spade came on the turn and bet otherwise.

The turn was the Qc, which gave me top 2 pair and completed the flush. At this moment I get very confused about the strengh of my hand because I'm only beating Kx now
I thought, however, that there is a lot of value to be gain by betting, so I did it
I quickly get raised and I thought that there were no hands that I was beating (maybe a AcX type of hand, which was a very small part of his range)
What do you thing about my fold? Is it too nitty and -EV? Should I have called and evaluated the river?
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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I'd say its unlikely that he has a king. Since you have one and there's one on the board (that leaves 2 possible kings with 46 uknown cards.. Means 8% chance that he has one, about .5% chance he gas both if I'm doing the math right.) Same for the queen. Unlikely. Its possible, but if he did its even less likely that he has two kings to make 3 of a kind. If he's tight, he's probably not entering the pot with 55 or 22 preflop.

I think the only thing you have to be worried about is if he has a flush. High suited connectors and high suited one-gaps are probably in his range. Which is very possible, especially since he raised on the turn.
 
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MinhANguyen

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Check-call turn. You can't get three streets of value with top two here, and you kind of overrep your hand if you were deciding to three barrel. If you check-call the turn, he's unlikely to bluff the river or valuebet a worse hand. We also get a chance to boat up and get his entire stack if he has a flush. If he has a flush and raises you on the turn, you no longer have that chance. Checking keeps his range wider, and we may be able to squeeze an extra street of value from weak one pair hands/floats that may fold to a double barrel.

On the flop though, I wouldn't mind just check-calling since we have the backdoor flush draw. The board is pretty dry. We can induce bluffs, and doing so protects our checking range and balances the time we check some 1010 and JJ/QQ/weak Kings here. A lot of people's checking ranges on this type of board are too transparent. Either top set or 1010-QQ that can get barreled off. Balancing isn't really important at these stakes, but it's something worth considering when you move up and play stronger opponents who will try to move you off hands.
 
Kavaleits

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Villain shows something pretty strong, i think he dont bluf. Probably he got flush, or small set. For me you played right.
 
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Rafael Chow

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Thank you for you answers!
Let me imagine a diferent situation now: what would you guys recommend doing if I had AcAx instead of KQ? Should I bet for value on the turn and c/c the River when a brick comes?
 
Omahahahaha

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i like the way you played the hand. you've got moxy. also he could be just pure bluffing on the turn but i still like the fold.
 
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MinhANguyen

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AcAx is a bet on the flop because we don't block his calling range of Kx. Just extra info :). And turn is a check because we aren't doing well against his continuing range. We also don't want to get blown off our nut flush draw if he raises. If he checks back, bet something like 50-60% pot for thin value on a blank river.
 
pauloprcds

pauloprcds

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I liked the way you played, I don't think he has this many Kings in his range, maybe KJ or AK (but you said he's a TAG player, so I don't think is very likely for he to be calling here with AK, AA or KK is more likely).
I don't see many bluffs in his range, maybe some KJ, with the J of clubs, most of the players don't raise there, but a TAG could, especially in this buy in, also I think that a set would raise in the flop, so if that's a bluff, he's a very good player ..
Nice hand tho, good fold IMO ..
 
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Rafael Chow

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Thank you all once again!
This is my first thread here!
I have one more question lol.
What if I had a low set instead of KQ?
I know i would bet the flop because he has a lot more Kx combos in his range and I know that I should call his raise on the turn because of the implied odds of making a boat on the River.
Does he have KQ in his turn raising range? (This would make my hand have a ton more +EV).
What should I do if I decide to call the raise on the turn and face a River shove when a blank comes out?
 
NCDaddy

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beware the check call check raise. He's got a set at minimum. probably a low end flush. I think you played it fine.
 
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Grinder888

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I am thinking about the part where you said you were playing loose on this table. So probably if villain took you light he could also be doing this with TPTK bc your range is so wide, and also for hand protection if you have a one card FD or if he had that. Some stats here for you both would give a clearer picture though. OTT fold is good but I might even go for a call to see the river and how my opponent bets. This is plausible bc we also have position.

However given the flush coming on turn I would originally be more inclined to check back for pot control in case I have to call down river on a wet board.

Play IP, opt pot control with marginal hands or wet boards and do look up players from time to time even if they are TAGS.

Also, no offense but for future hand analysis it would be better posting in 'Cash Games> Hand Analysis'. :)
 
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